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> July 21-?, 2018 Mid Atl/NE Wet Period/Flooding OBS, Forecasts, discussion, and OBS
stxprowl
post Jul 20 2018, 03:26 PM
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stxprowl
post Jul 20 2018, 08:21 PM
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longislander
post Jul 20 2018, 08:31 PM
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Those 2" numbers are fine, some of those 6" numbers for LI - I hope don't materialize, alot of flooding would happen with that kind of number.
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MaineJay
post Jul 20 2018, 08:49 PM
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ECMWF suggests sharp cutoffs aren't only reserved for snowstorms.

96 hour QPF

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Seems like most models have eastern PA under the super soaker.

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https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/201807...0724-1200z.html

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 20 2018, 08:50 PM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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stretchct
post Jul 20 2018, 09:40 PM
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12z Euro wind gusts

Nobody here has a clue that its coming. Wind is already blowing good from the east on the beach.
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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 20 2018, 09:44 PM
Post #26




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12z Euro precip

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 20 2018, 09:48 PM
Post #27




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My Holly discussion was meh about it. Upton was a little more interesting, suggesting winds up to 50 and possibility of tornadoes.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As a deep closed low digs slowly S from the western Great Lakes
region into the Ohio Valley, a non-tropical low will move up
along the coast from eastern North Carolina, then likely hook
NNW around the larger closed low, passing across NJ. Late
afternoon guidance may be coming into closer agreement on timing
of associated rain and wind, with the 18Z NAM now in agreement
(at least for this cycle) with the 12Z GFS on leading vort max
bringing showers especially to the NYC metro area and Long
Island by late day Sat, while E winds slowly increase. Main
impact from this low should arrive during Sat night mainly from
late evening on, with heavy rain, and a windswept one at that
along the coast, where E-SE winds just E of the low and N of a
warm front to its east will likely be sustained 20-30 mph with
gusts 40-45 mph. A few gusts to 50 mph may be possible along the
ocean shores of NYC and western Long Island.

Main question regarding heaviest rainfall will be whether
low level moisture transport east of the low continues straight
up the coast toward the NYC metro area and Lower Hudson Valley,
or also hook NNW with the surface low more into NJ and eastern
PA. Due to this uncertainty, and with the 18Z NAM wavering from
its 12Z predecessor, also HREF/SREF/GEFS probabilities of 2+ of
inches of rain all still on the low side, have not yet issued
any flash flood watches, yet cannot dismiss the possibility, so
mention continues in the HWO.

As seems to be customary at this time of year, have to closely
watch east of the low and along the warm front lifting northward
for tstms that could produce isolated damaging winds or even a
brief tornado, as low level SRH tends to maximize, and as air
mass quickly destabilizes via an eroding low level temp
inversion, either via heavy rain, or via sudden destabilization
right along the warm front via descending air in a relatively
dry slot right behind the front. Greatest potential for this
appears to be across Long Island and SE CT.

On Sunday, heaviest rain should shift mainly into E CT and E
Long Island during the morning. After a short break, chances for
showers and isolated tstms may increase into the afternoon as
tropical moisture continues to stream northward and a weak mid
level vort max rides northward as it pivots around the closed
low well to the west.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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MaineJay
post Jul 20 2018, 09:48 PM
Post #28




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 20 2018, 10:40 PM) *
12z Euro wind gusts

Nobody here has a clue that its coming. Wind is already blowing good from the east on the beach.



Soggy ground with high winds is no bueno.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 06:54 AM
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GFS total QPF from the 6z run. Even half of this would create problems in some regions. This projection is, likely, overdone - but it does represent just how high the potential for an extended period of wetness is about to unfold.

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MaineJay
post Jul 21 2018, 07:05 AM
Post #30




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 21 2018, 07:54 AM) *
GFS total QPF from the 6z run. Even half of this would create problems in some regions. This projection is, likely, overdone - but it does represent just how high the potential for an extended period of wetness is about to unfold.



I just posted your thread. smile.gif maybe use the one you created for the actual storm and mine for the day to day tropical showers and storms that'll be persisting?


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 21 2018, 07:08 AM
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Coastal hugger laugh.gif laugh.gif



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 21 2018, 07:09 AM


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Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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SnowMan11
post Jul 21 2018, 07:29 AM
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Next week is my week off from work and it looks like a crappy one

I wanted to go away next week but that's not going to happen anymore

Awful



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Anthony
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gulfofslides
post Jul 21 2018, 07:59 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Jul 21 2018, 07:29 AM) *
Next week is my week off from work and it looks like a crappy one

I wanted to go away next week but that's not going to happen anymore

Awful

umbrella vacation sad.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 08:21 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 21 2018, 08:08 AM) *
Coastal hugger laugh.gif laugh.gif


"tucked" cool.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 08:29 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 21 2018, 08:05 AM) *
I just posted your thread. smile.gif maybe use the one you created for the actual storm and mine for the day to day tropical showers and storms that'll be persisting?

Yes - I had already adjusted the dates to not span a week and make that discussion, solely, for this "coastal".

I had not noticed you already were all over the extended wet period. We could have had me edit my title (and still can) to include language to indicate that thread being closed - redirect to this one.
Let's see how the gang reacts, and we can modify my thread accordingly.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 20 2018, 09:49 PM) *
ECMWF suggests sharp cutoffs aren't only reserved for snowstorms.

96 hour QPF

Attached Image


Seems like most models have eastern PA under the super soaker.

Attached Image

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/201807...0724-1200z.html

Indeed, this hybrid system is soooo reminiscent of a winter coastal

You ought to see what HRRR is trying to sell - has the system come straight up the Chesapeake "chimney" and brings the strongest Fgen (early) to CTP land, then later another surge to the Lehigh Valley in PA.

That somewhat agrees with the Euro mapping.


Then, as the parent ULL swings down, the funnel is left in "open" position for far too long.

I kind of like these types of periods, mid summer. They tend to be just warm enough to not totally dampen spirits, and they help the foliage keep its youthful appearance all the longer.
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 21 2018, 08:48 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 21 2018, 09:21 AM) *
"tucked" cool.gif



Hopefully the pattern holds for 8 months. laugh.gif laugh.gif

Anyway flas flood watch just issued, in effect till 2am for my area

Weird that it was in the tv but my holly website not updated yet

Here's the one from 344am just to my west and south

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 21 2018, 08:50 AM
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http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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LUCC
post Jul 21 2018, 09:10 AM
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Why doesnt this happen during winter! A large storm then chance of precip everyday for a week straight!


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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SnowMan11
post Jul 21 2018, 09:57 PM
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Showers right now

The rain was heavier earlier this evening


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Anthony
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Undertakerson
post Jul 22 2018, 11:05 AM
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sad.gif


Would be worse, had the outlook been any kind of surprise. Given that this potential has been somewhat well advertised, softens the "blow"

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