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> July 21-?, 2018 Mid Atl/NE Wet Period/Flooding OBS, Forecasts, discussion, and OBS
Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2018, 03:49 AM
Post #41




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POPs don't drop to below 60% until Thursday. Flood Advisory posted.

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Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2018, 03:56 AM
Post #42




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QUOTE
SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
*Multi-day heavy to excessive rain risk continues over parts of
south central PA


An extensive wet pattern will continue to raise concerns for
flash and small stream flooding through the short term period.
The repeated rounds of showers and storms will also push many of
the smaller rivers/larger creeks in the srn half of the area to
bank full or out of their banks. Base flow is already much
higher than just back on Sat, and FFG values are just an inch or
so in the SC & SE counties.
Atmospheric river set-up with deep
layer south-southeast flow will maintain very high (2-2.25") PWs
and support intense rain rates.
Much like the last 28 hours,
though, the cell motion will be very quick, and it will take
training to make things dangerous. But, that is getting to be a
higher and higher probability as each day of this moisture feed
continues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Tuesday, filling upper trough off to our west will remain
nearly stationary or even retrograde a little as strong broad
ridge forms over the western U.S. For PA, long fetch moist
southerly low-level flow continues for much of the week, with
upper flow turning more SW/W. Not much to inhibit daily
convection along this river of high PWAT air over the region,
so very efficient precip producers that could exacerbate
flooding situation after several days of noteworthy rains could
continue to bring potential flooding impacts through much of the
week.

Best daily chances for tstorms shifts to western/central
sections early in the week (as ridge briefly edges in from the
east) before precip shifts eastward Thu as a cold frontal
boundary finally pushes across the state. The weekend looks
drier yet scattered showers may persist.

Though it will be quite muggy, temperatures will be at or
slightly below below normal much of the week.
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MaineJay
post Jul 23 2018, 06:04 AM
Post #43




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Just picked up 0.94" (and counting) from this little guy in ~20 minutes, which is more than the 0.62" I picked up all day yesterday and last night. No thunder or lightning, but wicked heavy rain.


Attached Image

1.54" over the two days so far.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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telejunkie
post Jul 23 2018, 08:35 AM
Post #44




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Finally getting in on some rain...decent little deluge atm. No watering needed today...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Jul 23 2018, 08:35 AM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 23 2018, 08:40 AM
Post #45




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Spots in the Cumberland valley have picked up 5-9" of rain. It rained harder last night then I've heard this season. Have a little roof leak at the office. Have emptied rain gauge several times, but adding it up so far were close to 8.5" of water.

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jul 23 2018, 08:41 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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LUCC
post Jul 23 2018, 09:12 AM
Post #46




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Man, don't look at 6z GFS if you like the sun and dry weather, same pattern for the entire run!


This post has been edited by LUCC: Jul 23 2018, 09:13 AM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Ryan Duff
post Jul 23 2018, 09:17 AM
Post #47




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Member No.: 21,302





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 23 2018, 09:40 AM) *
Spots in the Cumberland valley have picked up 5-9" of rain. It rained harder last night then I've heard this season. Have a little roof leak at the office. Have emptied rain gauge several times, but adding it up so far were close to 8.5" of water.


That's a lot of water.


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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Ryan Duff
post Jul 23 2018, 09:17 AM
Post #48




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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jul 23 2018, 10:12 AM) *
Man, don't look at 6z GFS if you like the sun and dry weather, same pattern for the entire run!


Ugh. That's even more water, pretty much centered over me.


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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telejunkie
post Jul 23 2018, 09:41 AM
Post #49




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 23 2018, 09:40 AM) *
Spots in the Cumberland valley have picked up 5-9" of rain. It rained harder last night then I've heard this season. Have a little roof leak at the office. Have emptied rain gauge several times, but adding it up so far were close to 8.5" of water.

Echo Duffman...that's a lot of water.

With rains this morning...maybe at 1" total up this way.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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phillyfan
post Jul 23 2018, 09:43 AM
Post #50




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Well it's been a long morning for me already. Power went out at 1:30am had to hook up generator just got power back at 9:30am. Comcast went out at 7am, then with everything back desktop would not connect to internet. Spent the past 1 hour+ fixing that and I don't know how I even fixed it. rolleyes.gif

Okay back on topic heavy rain dumped at 7am this morning already. Seems it didn't dump in town though gauge over there has nothing. unsure.gif

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 23 2018, 09:43 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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geeter1
post Jul 23 2018, 09:47 AM
Post #51




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4.75 inches here so far
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stretchct
post Jul 23 2018, 09:57 AM
Post #52




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Some storm total radars - I circled the time frame

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 23 2018, 10:11 AM
Post #53




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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jul 23 2018, 10:17 AM) *
Ugh. That's even more water, pretty much centered over me.


I think central MD through Cecil county is going to get smoked the next day or two.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Snow____
post Jul 23 2018, 10:25 AM
Post #54




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 23 2018, 11:11 AM) *
I think central MD through Cecil county is going to get smoked the next day or two.

I left Cincy yesterday and it rained all weekend and now I’m in Silver Springs Maryland until Sunday and it’s going to rain all week. Cool.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jul 23 2018, 10:43 AM
Post #55




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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jul 23 2018, 11:25 AM) *
I left Cincy yesterday and it rained all weekend and now I’m in Silver Springs Maryland until Sunday and it’s going to rain all week. Cool.


Timing is everything. laugh.gif


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Ryan Duff
post Jul 23 2018, 10:52 AM
Post #56




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Member No.: 21,302





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jul 23 2018, 11:11 AM) *
I think central MD through Cecil county is going to get smoked the next day or two.


48h for Havre de Grace

It's like monsoon season in Asia.

Attached Image


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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phillyfan
post Jul 23 2018, 11:30 AM
Post #57




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Flooding this morning in Pine Grove and Tremont, PA.

Here's a video from Tremont, PA
https://twitter.com/i/status/1021429342965043201


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2018, 11:47 AM
Post #58




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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 23 2018, 12:30 PM) *
Flooding this morning in Pine Grove and Tremont, PA.

Here's a video from Tremont, PA
https://twitter.com/i/status/1021429342965043201

Poor little old Pine Grove - this is the third time this summer that they've been whacked by flooding. sad.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jul 23 2018, 11:50 AM
Post #59




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And here comes yet another large batch of heavy rain, just on the doorstep to CTP

Basically from the Susquehanna to points East of Susq - this go around

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ccx...111&loop=no
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Miller A
post Jul 23 2018, 11:59 AM
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1.78' since Sunday morning.

Will be vacationing on the Chesapeake 8/5 - 8/9 and the above map is thru 8/8. Looks nasty, but I am hoping Mother Nature gets everything out of her system this week and next.


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°°
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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