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> July 21-?, 2018 Mid Atl/NE Wet Period/Flooding OBS, Forecasts, discussion, and OBS
beninbaltimore
post Aug 7 2018, 10:58 AM
Post #481




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QUOTE(Solstice @ Aug 7 2018, 09:31 AM) *
Looks like it comes back today...


Nasty looking cells on there moving through the Baltimore area. We've literally had thunder almost every single day for the past...god I don't even know how long. Some look semi-discrete and perhaps severe. Storm motion at least looks better than the past two days but we are overly saturated with rainfall.


--------------------
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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telejunkie
post Aug 7 2018, 12:48 PM
Post #482




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QUOTE(beninbaltimore @ Aug 7 2018, 11:58 AM) *
Nasty looking cells on there moving through the Baltimore area. We've literally had thunder almost every single day for the past...god I don't even know how long. Some look semi-discrete and perhaps severe. Storm motion at least looks better than the past two days but we are overly saturated with rainfall.

Meanwhile a few hours north of you...
Attached Image


Not sure how much this map will change this week, but know stream levels were still running below average in Adirondacks region of NY as of yesterday.

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Aug 7 2018, 12:48 PM


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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so_whats_happeni...
post Aug 7 2018, 02:28 PM
Post #483




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Well ~4000 cape in the region as the line approaches should see things go boom across much of MD. We do have a little more steering current today so it looks like we can get a little bit more of organtization before they move and die and respawn type of deal. Looks like rains and wind to be the main threat further might introduce some hail. Also not too much veering going on but storms near sea breezes or that get caught up with outflow boundaries could have a chance to spin up.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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stretchct
post Aug 7 2018, 05:03 PM
Post #484




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These lightning strikes are all within 2-3 miles of my house. Family said it was terrifying. Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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phillyfan
post Aug 7 2018, 05:06 PM
Post #485




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Currently pouring but what else is new.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Solstice
post Aug 7 2018, 05:57 PM
Post #486




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Member No.: 31,816





How's it over in SW CT? More "active" than the previous rounds of thunderstorms? Don't know since I'm in Boston.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Aug 7 2018, 05:57 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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snowlover2
post Aug 7 2018, 06:33 PM
Post #487




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Storms blew up over citi field. They started the game on time and within 10 minutes it looked like it was midnight with lots of thunder and lightning. Got the tarp on before it started pouring buckets.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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stretchct
post Aug 7 2018, 06:59 PM
Post #488




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Quite active down in the city too..yes thats 136 lightning strikes per minute. Kinda like Florida.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 7 2018, 08:08 PM
Post #489




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From: Newtown, CT
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3 hr rainfall


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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STEVE392
post Aug 7 2018, 08:35 PM
Post #490




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From: Little Ferry,NJ
Member No.: 23,183





Didn't get much by me at my job. Went from 96 degrees in little ferry when i left for work to 78 degrees in mahwah when i got to work. Got very dark, lots of lightning and thunder but not much rain. Back home got rocked.
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stretchct
post Aug 8 2018, 04:34 PM
Post #491




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From: Newtown, CT
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Southbury and Oxford's turn to get in on the lightning. Though we've had our fair share around my house as well in the last hour.
Attached Image

and more incoming - going on an hour of constant thunder. Currently at 8-9 strikes a minute
Attached Image


This post has been edited by stretchct: Aug 8 2018, 04:57 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 8 2018, 05:50 PM
Post #492




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Finally the thunder is ending - 110 minutes later.



It only rained for about 20 of those minutes with .8" going into darth vader.
Attached Image


These strikes in Fairfield County are all from round two
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 8 2018, 07:44 PM
Post #493




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





3 hours 20 minutes and the thunder is finally done. .97" fell with .8" of it within 20 minutes. The temperature is still at 74°

Or maybe its not over mad.gif

Here's the estimated rain for last 3 hours.


This post has been edited by stretchct: Aug 8 2018, 07:47 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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bingobobbo
post Aug 9 2018, 03:48 PM
Post #494




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 1,650
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598





We already have 2.6 inches of rain for the month, and yesterday saw four separate downpours for us and a total of an inch and a half of rain. We should reach the monthly precipitation average by early next week. This month reminds me of August 2006. I hope the final third of this month is as cool as that month was.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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stretchct
post Aug 9 2018, 08:14 PM
Post #495




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Aug 9 2018, 04:48 PM) *
We already have 2.6 inches of rain for the month, and yesterday saw four separate downpours for us and a total of an inch and a half of rain. We should reach the monthly precipitation average by early next week. This month reminds me of August 2006. I hope the final third of this month is as cool as that month was.

We're at 115% of the months total, as of yesterday, the 8th, with no tropical system.
TOTALS FOR OXC
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 90 TOTAL PRECIP 4.37
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 64 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.0
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 77.1 NORMAL PRECIP 3.79
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +6.7 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 115
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 0
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 0

Crazy thing is Oxford is a little over 20 miles from Bridgeport, which doesn't even have an inch yet.

TOTALS FOR BDR
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 93 TOTAL PRECIP 0.62
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 71 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.0
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 81.1 NORMAL PRECIP 3.96
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +6.5 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 16
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 0
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS 0


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 12 2018, 12:20 PM
Post #496




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Here some stats from Essex County Airport (KCDW), Caldwell (Actually Fairfield to be more accurate). Rain 7 of 11 days, over 9 inches of rain in 7 days.

CODE
TODAY'S DATE: 12-AUG-18

AUG-18 FOR CALDWELL, NJ (174') LAT=40.9N LON= 74.3W

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
ACTUAL NORMAL
HI LO AVG HI LO AVG DEPT AMNT SNOW SNCVR HDD
1 87 71 79 84 64 74 +5 0.31 0.0e 0 0
2 85 71 78 84 64 74 +4 0.95 0.0e 0 0
3 87 73 80 84 64 74 +6 0.26 0.0e 0 0
4 89 70 80 84 64 74 +6 2.11 0.0e 0 0
5 93 68 81 84 64 74 +7 0.00 0.0e 0 0
6 93 72 83 84 64 74 +9 0.00 0.0e 0 0
7 92 72 82 84 64 74 +8 0.08 0.0e 0 0
8 92 71 82 84 63 74 +8 0.00 0.0e 0 0
9 89 69 79 84 63 74 +5 0.54 0.0e 0 0
10 87 64 76 84 63 74 +2 0.00 0.0e 0 0
11 78 68 73 84 63 73 +0 4.92 0.0e 0 0

HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 93 TOTAL PRECIP 9.17
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 64 TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.0
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 79.1 NORMAL PRECIP 4.31
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +5.3 % OF NORMAL PRECIP 213




Some more info from nj.com on the flooding https://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/0...ood_washes.html

It was the worst flooding since Floyd in Sept 1999. https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/ro...0_hurricane.pdf

This post has been edited by stretchct: Aug 12 2018, 12:27 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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SnowMan11
post Aug 12 2018, 01:06 PM
Post #497




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 24,310
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From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





More rain here in Brooklyn, NY


--------------------
Anthony
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