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> July 21-22, 2018 MidAtl/NE Coastal Storm, Short Range Forecasts - Observations
MaineJay
post Jul 21 2018, 01:18 PM
Post #21




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2 day rain totals from the 21.12z ECMWF


Attached Image



Attached Image


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/201807...0723-1500z.html


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 21 2018, 02:18 PM) *
2 day rain totals from the 21.12z ECMWF


Attached Image



Attached Image


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/201807...0723-1500z.html

Ouch - there is probable flood issues down in the western perimeter of those highest totals.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 01:38 PM
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Attached Image


Attached Image


That's a ton of transport, even without overlaying PWAT (in the 1.5-2.5" range)


Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jul 21 2018, 01:42 PM
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 01:46 PM
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Band 8 w/14 overlay

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Tapping the S GOM and capturing Atl moisture with some real "oomph"

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Ryan Duff
post Jul 21 2018, 01:46 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jul 21 2018, 12:52 PM) *
GFS says the SLP gets to Chez UTS, about the same time as the party breaks up.


Man, if that isn't a metaphor for winter, I don't know what is. SLP-- always late to the party. laugh.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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Undertakerson
post Jul 21 2018, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jul 21 2018, 02:46 PM) *
Man, if that isn't a metaphor for winter, I don't know what is. SLP-- always late to the party. laugh.gif

(as usual) I don't get "it". laugh.gif
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MaineJay
post Jul 21 2018, 02:17 PM
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Goes east band 7 with GLM - L2 Accumulated Group Energy (CIRA) overlay. Lightning detection.

Sorry about the portrait, I did it on my phone.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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psu1313
post Jul 21 2018, 04:04 PM
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Flood warnings are flying in the DC area. I can confirm it's been raining buckets for a few hours now.

CODE
lood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
446 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

VAC177-179-630-220045-
/O.CON.KLWX.FA.W.0178.000000T0000Z-180722T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Stafford VA-City of Fredericksburg VA-Spotsylvania VA-
446 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT FOR STAFFORD
AND SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG...

At 443 PM EDT, the Stafford County 911 Center has reported that
Business Kings Highway was blocked by high water near River
Road. Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall over the warned
area. Rainfall amounts of two to five inches have already occurred
across most of the warned area, and additional rainfall amounts
around one to three inches are possible. Creeks and streams will
continue to rise into this evening.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Stafford, Fredericksburg, Aquia Creek, Massaponax, Spotsylvania,
Falmouth, Passapatanzy, Stones Corner, Roseville, Garrisonville,
Snell, Ramoth, Partlow, Heflin, Glenora, Thornburg, White Oak, Ruby,
Leeland and Widewater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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psu1313
post Jul 21 2018, 04:05 PM
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CODE
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
441 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

VAC059-107-153-600-683-685-220545-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0179.180721T2041Z-180722T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Loudoun VA-City of Fairfax VA-Fairfax VA-City of Manassas Park VA-
Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA-
441 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia...
  Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia...
  Prince William County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas in northern Virginia...

* Until 145 AM EDT Sunday.

* At 440 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  flooding. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and
  additional amounts around 1 to 3 inches are expected. Moderate to
  heavy rain will cause creeks and streams to rise out of their
  banks.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Alexandria, Centreville, Dale City, Reston, Annandale, Springfield,
  South Riding, Fort Washington, Herndon, Fairfax, Fort Hunt, Vienna,
  Groveton, Falls Church, Huntington, Lowes Island, Brambleton,
  Mantua, Fort Belvoir and Pimmit Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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MaineJay
post Jul 21 2018, 04:09 PM
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It's actually been a gorgeous day up here. Right around 80 with dew points in the upper 50s and barely a cloud.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 21 2018, 04:09 PM


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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stretchct
post Jul 21 2018, 04:08 PM
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Surfline reporting 23kt winds. Seas look rough, but don't look like they topped the berm from yesterday. High tide was around 4

https://www.surfline.com/surf-report/laveni...a274e001a11e4c0
Drop down into cameras for more along the Jersey shore.



--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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NorEaster07
post Jul 21 2018, 04:33 PM
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5pm Temps, Winds & Radar.

Only around DC and Philly area seeing Northeast winds right now.

The center of this Fall like storm is near Virginia Beach and heading into land.

July 21st and it's in the 60s this evening in areas of the Mid Atlantic.

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Philly 68F at 5pm. What's that like in July?

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Zoomed in. Winds picking up here and you can feel there's a coastal storm nearby

Chilly Afternoon

Washington Dulles: 64
State College: 63
Harrisburg: 65

Attached Image


Attached Image

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MaineJay
post Jul 21 2018, 05:02 PM
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Radar indicated 4" totals stretching both from Fredericksburg. Bet that dry slot can come soon enough.

Attached Image

Attached Image

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?ri...TP&loop=yes

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 21 2018, 05:03 PM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 21 2018, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 21 2018, 03:17 PM) *
Goes east band 7 with GLM - L2 Accumulated Group Energy (CIRA) overlay. Lightning detection.

Sorry about the portrait, I did it on my phone.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


Wicked purveying bruh


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stretchct
post Jul 21 2018, 05:39 PM
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Some wunderground obs.

Bells Island, Currituck NC with 38mph gusts, 30mph sustained.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...rd?ID=KNCCURRI5

Nags Head town hall with 3.84 inches of rain today.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...localwx_pwsdash

Albemarle Soundfront, inland from Duck, with 6.53 inches of rain
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...localwx_pwsdash

Caffeys Inlet near KittyHawk with over 8 " of rain, some 2 inch/hr rates. Though this is suspect as the radar returns show a max of 5" for that area.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...rd?ID=KNCCAFFY2

Rehobeth Beach with winds 30 mph sustained 36mph gusts
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...rd?ID=KDEREHOB4

Holgate NJ with winds 30mph and gusts to 38.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...rd?ID=KNJLONGB6

Georgetown DE with sustained of 39mph. I'm tossing the gusts though...
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...localwx_pwsdash

Haven Beach (5 blocks up from where I just stayed) had sustained 37mph and gusts to 42. There are multiple stations reporting these winds.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...d?ID=KNJLONGB23

Lacey Twp 38mph sustained.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...d?ID=KNJLACEY22

Lastly, IBSP bath house 2 with 46mph winds
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weath...d?ID=KNJBERKE13


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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NorEaster07
post Jul 21 2018, 07:29 PM
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NorEaster07
post Jul 21 2018, 07:42 PM
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4:30-8:30pm Radar & Wind Gust loop centered on D.C where it's been heavy rain for pretty much past 8hrs setting some records and flooding.

Those little homes are flooding reports. Temps in the 60s out there. Even in Richmond at this hour.

Winds are constant here. Love this weather!!! Rain close now. Windows open for now.

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Solstice
post Jul 21 2018, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 21 2018, 08:42 PM) *
4:30-8:30pm Radar & Wind Gust loop centered on D.C where it's been heavy rain for pretty much past 8hrs setting some records and flooding.

Those little homes are flooding reports. Temps in the 60s out there. Even in Richmond at this hour.

Winds are constant here. Love this weather!!! Rain close now. Windows open for now.



Not exactly sure why, but that loop was extremely captivating. Thanks for posting smile.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stxprowl
post Jul 21 2018, 08:02 PM
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http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/m...503&yr=2018
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stretchct
post Jul 21 2018, 08:27 PM
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Waterspouts

CODE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
918 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 40 NM...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 917 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing
waterspouts was located 11 nm southwest of Buoy 44025, moving
northwest at 35 knots.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly
higher winds and suddenly higher waves.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Entrance to New York Harbor around 955 PM EDT.


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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