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> August 10-13 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Solstice
post Jul 24 2018, 10:35 AM
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From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
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Been a while. laugh.gif.

BSR


BSR 500mb
Attached Image


SOI and SOID
Attached Image


Hopefully I didn't screw up while dusting off the cobwebs... laugh.gif.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Aug 3 2018, 03:20 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Jul 27 2018, 11:26 AM
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Posts: 1,097
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EAR

Attached Image


Not entirely sure how the Typhoon Rule is applied... but considering the activity I suppose it means something. laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Jul 27 2018, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jul 27 2018, 12:26 PM) *
EAR

Attached Image


Not entirely sure how the Typhoon Rule is applied... but considering the activity I suppose it means something. laugh.gif.

The TR dictates that a recurving typhoon prior to the Japan Prefecture, will cause downstream jet "digging" through the East in approx. 6-10 days (I find that 7-8 days is most typical)

Adapted from the TR, the EAR is similar in effect, but not in impetus of said jet "bending".

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Undertakerson
post Jul 27 2018, 11:53 AM
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essentially, and in layman terms, the Typhoon will pump heights out ahead of its path. Those height rises translate eventually into the Western US. As we know, most often, a ridge west will translate to trough downstream/east.

Simplistic explanation - but I'm not in Uber Nerd mode ATTM.
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bingobobbo
post Jul 27 2018, 02:58 PM
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I hope this means some truly cool air in mid-August. Despite all the rain and troughiness here lately, we have been having trouble getting a cooler-than-average mean, notably because of the muggy nights. Maxes have been relatively low, but the sultry mins have more than canceled them out.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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stretchct
post Jul 28 2018, 11:42 AM
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Interesting time frame. The tropics have been awfully quiet the last few weeks, since Beryl refired. This both in the E PAC and ATL. GFS AND Euro EPS have some storms firing up in the E PAC going into this time frame, remarkably similar to the surface depiction.

As far as the 500 mb chart goes, there's this... only 2 days off.

If that pulse continues eastward, maybe we start popping in the Atlantic after this time period.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jul 28 2018, 11:46 AM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 28 2018, 05:56 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





I like it when CWG reads our posts.. tongue.gif
.Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 29 2018, 12:57 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 15,153
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 28 2018, 06:56 PM) *
I like it when CWG reads our posts.. tongue.gif
.Attached Image


Models showing it of course its 360hrs+ out but they are picking up on it. Makes sense to me might have to deal with quick rounds of heat though as we move through the more likely second week of august.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Solstice
post Aug 3 2018, 03:20 PM
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Member No.: 31,816





Hmmmm.....

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Aug 4 2018, 10:44 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,097
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Aug 5 2018, 07:40 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,097
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Aug 9 2018, 05:37 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,097
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Anyone still here? Or should I post an OBS on the new forum?


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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stretchct
post Aug 9 2018, 08:01 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(Solstice @ Aug 9 2018, 06:37 PM) *
Anyone still here? Or should I post an OBS on the new forum?

Do we usually get cutoff lows in the summer? I usually think spring for that. Well at least this one isn't dropping down into the SE like the last one. Like we need 4 days of rain around here. Golfed today - course is a mess.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Aug 9 2018, 08:36 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Could be worse says the GEM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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bingobobbo
post Aug 9 2018, 10:48 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,650
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598





It looks as though the mushrooms/toadstools will be thriving around here next week! LOL.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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stretchct
post Aug 10 2018, 11:44 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,956
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





0z GFS and Euro through the 13th.




CMC for kicks


At least the AC can take a rest.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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STEVE392
post Aug 12 2018, 06:17 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 2,071
Joined: 19-July 10
From: Little Ferry,NJ
Member No.: 23,183





Portions of my area experienced flash flooding yesterday, some of hte worst flooding to hit our area since hurricane floyd.
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