Feb 16-18th Eastern Canada Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range Options

[bigmt]

Despite the risk of being totally wrong, I'm willing to stick my neck out for this one. The Americans have a thread on their subforum and the models have bitten on something in this time period for a few runs now. It's something to watch and I don't mind egg on my face if it goes belly up

12z ECMWF @ hour 216:

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Hour 240:

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12z GFS @ hour 240:

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00z GFS from last night @ hour 252:

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This post has been edited by bigmt: Feb 15 2012, 10:20 AM

[EOsnowmom]

Despite the risk of being totally wrong,

You never know unless you try. Kudos to you bigmt for not giving up! LOL

I'm still hoping too. That and I'm terrified of tornado season will come too soon.

[bigmt]

You never know unless you try. Kudos to you bigmt for not giving up! LOL

I'm still hoping too. That and I'm terrified of tornado season will come too soon.

Keep the dream alive

I'll be watching severe weather season as well, hopefully we all stay safe. SW ON usually faces a greater risk for tornadoes than E ON but of course it only takes one.

18z GFS @ hour 264:

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Hour 276:

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Hour 288:

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[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

not being mean here but you should let someone else create a thread for a change (like me or torontowx)..you've been hogging all the threads this month bigmt.

[bigmt]

not being mean here but you should let someone else create a thread for a change (like me or torontowx)..you've been hogging all the threads this month bigmt.

Sure thing, this will be my last one for a while. Hopefully someone strikes gold and we get a big blizzard

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

I think threads IMO should be created no longer than a week out from the storm. This storm is more than 10 days out and anything is possible.

Again I will have more thoughts on this once we get closer, very difficult pattern around this.

This post has been edited by Snowstorms: Feb 7 2012, 07:18 PM

[bigmt]

I think threads IMO should be created no longer than a week out from the storm. This storm is more than 10 days out and anything is possible.

Yeah, that makes sense. There's been some decent model consistency and I figured since the US forum creates topics pretty far out that I'd give it a shot and have something to watch with some optimism moving forward.

It isn't my intention to flood or anything. I'll try to limit my posts from now on.

[DurhamRegion]

not being mean here but you should let someone else create a thread for a change (like me or torontowx)..you've been hogging all the threads this month bigmt.

Does it really matter??? :S

[JJ Snowlover]

I think threads IMO should be created no longer than a week out from the storm. This storm is more than 10 days out and anything is possible.

Again I will have more thoughts on this once we get closer, very difficult pattern around this.

Any other winter, I would say ya, wait till it's a week out, but this year, this dream stuff is all we got. The pattern is completely void of anything until this period, so what else we gonna talk about??

Thanks bigmt for keeping the dreams alive, if you are wrong, I don't think anybody will hold it against you. Tell me one Met that's got any forecast right this year

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

Yeah, that makes sense. There's been some decent model consistency and I figured since the US forum creates topics pretty far out that I'd give it a shot and have something to watch with some optimism moving forward.

It isn't my intention to flood or anything. I'll try to limit my posts from now on.

You assumed my point wrong man.

With the way this Winter has been going I wouldnt trust any model beyond 5 days, thats what I'm trying to portray here. forget that last sentence...no one said anything bout limiting your posts.

The US forums will create a thread for a storm 2 years out...lol. they hype so much and some are "greedy" too haha.

Does it really matter??? :S

just tryin' to make it fair for every1.

Any other winter, I would say ya, wait till it's a week out, but this year, this dream stuff is all we got. The pattern is completely void of anything until this period, so what else we gonna talk about??

Thanks bigmt for keeping the dreams alive, if you are wrong, I don't think anybody will hold it against you. Tell me one Met that's got any forecast right this year

Its been a horrible year for forecasting, no one expected such a outcome. I thought it would resemble 2008-09 or 1917-18 since the ENSO looked almost exact like those years but clearly the Pacific jet overwhelmed everything and the dead MJO.

[Regg]

I hope it stays like that, but unfortunatly it is another one starting on the cold side with huge amounts and evolving to the warm side with freezing rain or mix precipitations. I think it's hopeless this winter.

[Ryan45]

Ya but snowstorms sometimes you go off the site for a week or two.
In my opinion, who cares who starts a thread as long as YOU guys are willing to update it for us in the forum. A post is a post regardless if it's the first post or 200th post.

[Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*]

Ya but snowstorms sometimes you go off the site for a week or two. In my opinion, who cares who starts a thread as long as YOU guys are willing to update it for us in the forum. A post is a post regardless if it's the first post or 200th post.

I have a life you know

But when I do come back I'll stay for a couple of days, take a couple of days off...thats how it works.

Again your post makes sense but I'm about fairness....i guess it doesnt matter

[Torontoweather]

It really doesn't matter, but I agree about the 7 days out or under t create a storm thread. We have a special thread for long range storm potentials

[nin05]

My God... a battle on a weather forum about who's starting the threads. NOW this winter officially sucks!!!

[DurhamRegion]

My God... a battle on a weather forum about who's starting the threads. NOW this winter officially sucks!!!

It's called a discussion, but yes this winter officially sucks.

[bigmt]

It really doesn't matter, but I agree about the 7 days out or under t create a storm thread. We have a special thread for long range storm potentials

Yeah, I definitely see the wisdom in the 7-day thing. It keeps the topics realistic and also the entire forum is less cluttered that way too. The American subforum is so manic and jammed that I can't really follow what is going on; this way we keep things reasonable and organized. I'll keep it in mind in the future, but this will be my last thread for a while because Snowstorms is right about being fair and giving everyone a chance to voice their thoughts.

I have a life you know

I have an unhealthy obsession with weather and I'm not afraid to admit it!

I just get confused (but also sympathetic, this one sucks) when you say you're frustrated and leaving for the rest of the winter so I try to keep things updated. You gotta tough it out and stay, we can all be each other's moral support to make it through if nothing else. The more opinions the better conclusions as well, I don't want to lose anyone.

I hope it stays like that, but unfortunatly it is another one starting on the cold side with huge amounts and evolving to the warm side with freezing rain or mix precipitations. I think it's hopeless this winter.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right, that's been the trend for every 'major' event this winter.

00z ECMWF @ hour 216:

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06z GFS @ hour 204:

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[knorthern_knight]

I hate to say it, but I think the "snowsturm und drung" was a 1-run-wonder. The Feb 7 12Z NAEFS ensemble showed very little precip for Toronto, but...

• the CMC model line was showing 12 mm water-equivalant on the 11th
• the NCEP control member was showing almost 20 mm on the 16th/17th

The Feb 8 00Z NAEFS is toned down

• the 11th is under 5 mm water equivalant on the CMC model line
• NCEP control member shows 6 mm on the 15th/16th
• CMC shows 11 mm water equivalant on the 16th
• speaking of water, CMC is jumping YYZ temperature to +8 on the 16th
• the ensemble shows around +1
• either way, if we do get precip, it won't be accumulating snow

Edit: And the Feb 8 12Z run is down to 5 mm for both events.

This post has been edited by knorthern_knight: Feb 8 2012, 06:35 PM

[ottawasnowstorm]

The storm has popped back up for Ottawa on the 17th (friday) with nearly 24 cm of snow. A little bit of a drop from the near 30 cm a couple of days ago but on the bright side, the temperature is now much colder at -6C.

[puttin]

Yeah, I definitely see the wisdom in the 7-day thing. It keeps the topics realistic and also the entire forum is less cluttered that way too. The American subforum is so manic and jammed that I can't really follow what is going on; this way we keep things reasonable and organized. I'll keep it in mind in the future, but this will be my last thread for a while because Snowstorms is right about being fair and giving everyone a chance to voice their thoughts.
I have an unhealthy obsession with weather and I'm not afraid to admit it!

I just get confused (but also sympathetic, this one sucks) when you say you're frustrated and leaving for the rest of the winter so I try to keep things updated. You gotta tough it out and stay, we can all be each other's moral support to make it through if nothing else. The more opinions the better conclusions as well, I don't want to lose anyone.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if you're right, that's been the trend for every 'major' event this winter.

00z ECMWF @ hour 216:

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06z GFS @ hour 204:

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No way, this forum is for anyone to voice their opinion, start a thread or whatever else they want and nobody has the right to tell anyone to stop; so BIGMT, I for one enjoy your passion on the weather and you should not go away because someone tells you to. I for one, can't believe the gall of someone to say that. Your insight is inspirational and contains a great deal of thought. Please don't fall for that *bleep* and do whatever you want to do. What is fair for one is fair for all. Doesn't make anyone more or less important just because they posted it first.... chill out Snowy.