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Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Today, 07:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over
the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather
as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern
North America. This pattern change will be in part driven by the
poleward movement of the remnants of Typhoon Lan in the western
Pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of
latent/sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies
will strongly amplify the Pacific wavetrain, which in turn will
drive amplification downstream into North America. By the middle of
next week, a strong Aleutian Low will force a ridge to build over
the Gulf of Alaska, which will drift to the west coast of North
America by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into
the first week of November, and aid in forcing a deep longwave
trough over central and eastern North America. This will bring more
fall like weather for the last week of October, and the possibility
of the first wintry weather during the first week of November. Stay
tuned


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249902 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 05:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Half of the city lost power for about 10 hrs last night thanks to the howling winds, gust to near 70 at the airport..First frost advisory issued for the lake plain for tomorrow night with projected lows hovering around freezing..First flakes should be flying soon, higher elevations mid oct and valleys late October on avg, so no surprise to see some flakes on some of the longer range guidance...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249600 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 09:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Quite the drop off from one day to the next, Gfs drops 850 mb temps down to -6c..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249458 · Replies: · Views: 32,203

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Finished with 1 3/4 over the last couple of days, already surpassing all of September..Looks like another 1/2-1 on tap for tomorrow..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249397 · Replies: · Views: 4,510

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 26 2017, 12:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hit 91 at the airport, 2nd 90 degree day this year..Looks like a 30 degree drop off by Thur/Fri..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2248337 · Replies: · Views: 4,534

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 07:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Simon Brewer (saddlebunch keys) Video in link..

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https://mobile.twitter.com/simonstormrider?lang=en
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2245173 · Replies: · Views: 1,319,528

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 9 2017, 08:41 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Sep 9 2017, 09:24 AM) *
The question is how much does Irma strengthen once back in open water, if at all? Also I wonder if it's possible she turns northerly so late she winds up in the eastern GOM like many Gfs members show, I'm sure that wouldn't be good news for city's like Tampa..I have a good buddy in pensacola who is expecting nothing and my sister in law in Orlando expecting the worst.. unsure.gif

Kinda what I was alluding to..

NHC
QUOTE
Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Irma
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2244244 · Replies: · Views: 1,319,528

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 9 2017, 08:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


The question is how much does Irma strengthen once back in open water, if at all? Also I wonder if it's possible she turns northerly so late she winds up in the eastern GOM like many Gfs members show, I'm sure that wouldn't be good news for city's like Tampa..I have a good buddy in pensacola who is expecting nothing and my sister in law in Orlando expecting the worst.. unsure.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2244234 · Replies: · Views: 1,319,528

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 28 2017, 06:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


A "Balmy" 51 this morning compared to the last 2 mornings (44,46), Friday morning looks like another chilly one, 850s below freezing this time of year is pretty impressive..Not much to complain about weather wise..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2236252 · Replies: · Views: 12,546

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 23 2017, 01:59 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Nothing severe here, just some heavy rain, picked up 1.5" ..Need 1/4" for another 4" month..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2235078 · Replies: · Views: 4,427

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 22 2017, 06:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
Cooler air will filter into the region Wednesday night and Thursday
in the wake of this frontal passage, with 850 mb temperatures
falling to around +5 to +6C for Thursday. This cooler air will
elicit a lake response, that will be mitigated by fairly dry air
and a stout inversion to start the day. Thus, this lake response
will mainly manifest as low cloudiness, which will help to keep
daytime highs limited to the mid to upper 60s. A sharper trough axis
will then move across Lake Erie Thursday late afternoon/evening.
Expect enough low level convergence with the attendant surface
boundary, along with some added lake moisture, to produce some
scattered showers and even perhaps thunderstorms as the mid-level
lapse rates steepen up. These will most likely be focused south of
Lake Ontario across the Niagara Frontier and Lake Erie late in the
day. As this trough moves over Lake Erie by late afternoon, any line
of showers and/or thunderstorms moving over the warmer lake waters
would be prone to produce waterspouts, and have included the chance
in the forecast. Showers and any thunderstorms will dissipate with
the loss of heating with clearing skies. Overnight lows will reach
the mid 40s to low 50s with the cooler airmass in place.





QUOTE
Friday through the weekend, the aforementioned upper level low will
make its exit eastward while a sprawling Canadian high pressure
system builds slowly eastward across the Great Lakes region. This
will bring a stretch of cooler and drier air more reminiscent of
fall, but with fairly light winds. There will be some day-to-day
warming as the airmass modifies with high temperatures slowly
building from the upper 60s Friday to the mid 70s by Monday. Nights
will be cool and crisp, with overnight lows ranging from the low
40s in inland valleys to the low 50s along the lake plains.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234921 · Replies: · Views: 12,546

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 4 2017, 06:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


In for a nice soaker tonight, pouring out..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2233854 · Replies: · Views: 8,676

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Aug 2 2017, 10:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Finished the month with about 4 1/2" of precip here, 5th consecutive month of 4"+..Avg high for July was 79 with an avg low of 60, still only one 90 degree day to date compared to 11 at this time last year..


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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2233566 · Replies: · Views: 62,252

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jul 2 2017, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Confirmed tornado in Vernon ny, just a few miles from turning stone resort and casino..Utica picked up almost 5 1/2" of rain total, finished with about an inch imby..

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http://www.wktv.com/story/35795139/tornado...rnonverona-area
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231418 · Replies: · Views: 6,737

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jul 1 2017, 07:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Pouring out, what's new.. It has rained at least 16 days or more 3 consecutive months, it looks like July is starting off wet just like June did..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231350 · Replies: · Views: 6,737

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 25 2017, 02:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Confirmed

Attached Image



QUOTE
HOWELL, New Jersey - National Weather Service: Multiple tornadoes confirmed near Howell, New Jersey

Multiple tornadoes were confirmed near Howell, New Jersey on Saturday morning, the National Weather Service confirms.

The EF-O tornadoes were reported at 7:21 and 7:27 Saturday morning
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231065 · Replies: · Views: 6,538

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 18 2017, 05:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


QUOTE
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Cayuga County in central New York...
Southwestern Oswego County in central New York...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 630 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Chimney Bluffs State Park to near Clyde, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to
mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Weedsport, Cato,
Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point and Battle Island State
Park


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230535 · Replies: · Views: 12,831

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 17 2017, 10:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Needless to say we don't need the rain..

QUOTE
The water level in Lake Ontario remains as high as it has been in 100 years of record-keeping. Experts say it likely will be several months before the level drops appreciably.



QUOTE
The concern remains that a long-lived, truly severe storm something not all that common in summertime could drown the shoreline in much larger waves.
"If we get a storm, the damage could be horrendous. The damage could be horrendous," Cuomo said. "People are living on pins and needles."


http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/...eece/353110001/
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230413 · Replies: · Views: 12,831

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 17 2017, 10:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hwo kbuf

QUOTE
A slow moving cold front will help to generate strong to severe
thunderstorms very late Sunday afternoon and night. While the
primary threat of severe weather will come in the form of damaging
straight line winds...a greater risk will come from slow moving
torrential downpours that could result in localized flash flooding.
Some sites could receive in excess of two inches of rain in less than
an hour.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230412 · Replies: · Views: 12,831

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 15 2017, 04:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Picked up 1/4" of rain so far bringing June's total to 2", Gfs has 7" of rain over the next 5 days( laugh.gif),including a few inches tonight from the slow moving storms off to my SW..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230284 · Replies: · Views: 62,252

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Jun 5 2017, 06:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


June starting off where April/may left off..Picked up over 11" of rain the last 2 months and about about 1.5" so far in June, torrential downpours at the moment..May finished with an avg high of 65 degrees, so far in June 64 degrees..
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2229725 · Replies: · Views: 62,252

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 05:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


No end in sight on the 12z gfs, shows 40's and 50's for highs in the 3rd week of may..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227561 · Replies: · Views: 17,152

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 07:10 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


This would be a 1st for me..

QUOTE
Precip type will start off as all rain Saturday evening, but enough
cold air aloft and at the surface will wrap into the western edge of
the system to allow for wet snow to mix in late Saturday night
across Western NY. By Sunday morning precip type will likely change
to all wet snow across the higher terrain of Western NY, with at
least a mix with wet snow at lower elevations and possibly all snow
for a time. This will then continue through the day Sunday, with a
mix of rain/snow at lower elevations and potentially all snow across
higher terrain. Sunday night the airmass grows even colder, with
850mb temps bottoming out in the -7C to -9C range depending on model
of choice. This will allow even the lower elevations to change to
mainly wet snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The airmass aloft
remains very chilly through the day Monday, as does the boundary
layer, with all snow in the morning transitioning to a mix of rain
and wet snow in the afternoon as the diurnal cycle tries to warm the
boundary layer


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227518 · Replies: · Views: 17,152

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 06:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Another 3/4" in the bucket so far with plenty more to come, Gfs is close to some mangled flakes with surface in the mid 30s and 850 mb temps dropping down to -8c, won't happen here but north/elevation "may" see some flakes..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227517 · Replies: · Views: 8,489

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 1 2017, 07:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,246
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Not much severe here, just pouring out..Picked up 2.2" of rain so far..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227307 · Replies: · Views: 11,095

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