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> Feb 12-14 MidAtl/NE Blizzard, Short Range (1-3 days)
JDClapper
post Feb 4 2017, 03:01 PM
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Throwing up a hail mary on this one? It can be football type, or relgious, you choose smile.gif

H5's and OFM look interesting. It may become "something", it may not, but it's showing up for several runs, let's discuss.

1st .. OFM

BSR has some activity .. some dimples .. some northern, some southern. It certainly does not appear to be eye candy to my eyes, but, there is activity.

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EAR looks much more tantalizing .. some storminess could be about in the region if this correlates. You can see on the 2/12 panel, northern and souther energy then phasing on 2/13 around our region and then heading ENE offshore.

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RRWT 500s look absolutely pukefest. Mega-ridge in the east.

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How about some model data?

GFS has a bunch going on and timing is not right to really make much impact. However.. this is 200+ hours. So much can change, good or bad.


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CMC H5 looks really interesting. Too bad it's druncle, but, it has some pieces the GFS has, just different timing.

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Euro also has something in the neighborhood.

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It's a total long shot... or is it? Throw up your hail mary's now. Besides, "winter is over" after the 15th... right? This is it, don't get scared.

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Feb 11 2017, 04:44 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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rtcemc
post Feb 4 2017, 03:18 PM
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Good stuff Clap. Enjoyed the read.
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PhillySnowLover
post Feb 4 2017, 03:59 PM
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Great read and very informative.

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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2017, 04:22 PM
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Clapper is probably posting the EPS as we speak. Just hoping a pesky Pacific NW low doesn't kill the western ridge, again.

Amongst a bunch of other things

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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2017, 04:23 PM
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How about some tele's?

NAO is looking neutral to weak postive. So, this storm will probably keep on moving. i.e., EAR

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AO looking negative .. some cool air available nearby?

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PNA looking positive .. some helpful riding out west?

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MJO in phase 7, going into 8? Warmer to cooler, wetter to drier type pattern?

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 04:30 PM
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6z Para has a little somethin

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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 04:32 PM
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Not sure if this CFS look fits this thread and is quick, or is something else.

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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2017, 04:37 PM
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As far as MJO goes.. Euro actually has it in a fairly strong phase 8 for the 13th/14th period. Also, there's some charts for you showing a monthly analog, rather than the tri-monthly.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2017, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 4 2017, 04:37 PM) *
As far as MJO goes.. Euro actually has it in a fairly strong phase 8 for the 13th/14th period. Also, there's some charts for you showing a monthly analog, rather than the tri-monthly.


Three an equatorial Rossby wave rolling off South America. It's faint, but there's some little low pressure couplets straddling the equator. These move westward, I suspect the eastward propagating MJO signal will amplify once they intercept each other.
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CFS picks it up, on a side note, if we see this activity continue, it has some significant ENSO implications. as in, increased el Niño chances, but that's just something to watch down the line.
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2017, 05:27 PM
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8-14 day analogs centered on 2/14. Not a terrible set up. smile.gif certainly not a winter cancel look to me either.

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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 05:31 PM
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18z is getting kind of interesting at H5

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snowsux
post Feb 4 2017, 05:33 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 4 2017, 04:23 PM) *
AO looking negative .. some cool air available nearby?


Maybe...... mellow.gif
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2017, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 4 2017, 05:31 PM) *
18z is getting kind of interesting at H5



Go on..
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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 4 2017, 05:35 PM


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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2017, 05:35 PM
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12z GEFS. A few decent members. Something could be lurking. Ultimately, time will tell, but there are some favorable things appears to go for us on this one.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 05:35 PM
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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 4 2017, 05:37 PM


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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2017, 05:37 PM
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And druncle's nephew's .. also something lurking.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 05:37 PM
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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2017, 05:38 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 4 2017, 05:35 PM) *

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Warm, to cool?


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 05:39 PM
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Completion!

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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2017, 05:40 PM
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This run teasingly close to pulling in the Atl side system in a definite thread the needle manner. It caught a part of it this go around.


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