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> 2016-17 La Nina Watch, Long-range Forecasts and Observations
MaineJay
post Jan 16 2017, 07:57 AM
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OISST AND ERSST data sets have a difference of a staggering 0.65°C (0.3°C anomaly) for December 2016. ONI is based on ERSST. read into it how you like. smile.gif clearly this will officially make La Niņa status at this point.


OISST
CODE

YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM

2016 12 23.25 0.43 24.75 -0.39 28.35 -0.14 26.15 -0.42



CODE

YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM
2016 12 26.08 26.80 -0.72



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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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scwxman
post Jan 17 2017, 01:37 PM
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Without Cold, there is no life. Without Snow, there is no joy :)
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grace
post Jan 18 2017, 11:44 AM
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EURO SEASONAL is forecasting a moderate El Nino Modoki by July
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 18 2017, 09:02 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 18 2017, 11:44 AM) *
EURO SEASONAL is forecasting a moderate El Nino Modoki by July

laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 23 2017, 06:12 PM
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Nino 1+2 blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif


CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 25 2017, 05:49 PM
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CFS is amusing



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Jan 26 2017, 01:51 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 25 2017, 02:49 PM) *
CFS is amusing


RAGING NINO by October blink.gif At least it's a -PDO though, right!?

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Jan 26 2017, 01:52 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 26 2017, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jan 26 2017, 01:51 PM) *
RAGING NINO by October blink.gif At least it's a -PDO though, right!?

You'd get a warm, dry winter... though the -PDO might throw a wrench in that. I'd say the only analog we got for that kind of pattern is 1972-73.

Just to show how useless that product is... here's the latest


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MaineJay
post Jan 30 2017, 08:43 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 23 2017, 06:12 PM) *
Nino 1+2 blink.gif blink.gif blink.gif
CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
04JAN2017     23.9 0.1     25.0-0.5     26.1-0.5     28.2-0.1
11JAN2017     25.1 0.9     25.5-0.1     26.2-0.3     28.2-0.1
18JAN2017     26.2 1.6     25.8 0.1     26.4-0.2     28.1-0.1



1+2 continue to warm, 3.4 cools. Interesting to see the evolution going forward. I assume that something is impeding upwelling along the south American coast, but what's causing that? Can't be equatorial Kelvin waves, anomaly warm Humboldt current?

CODE

04JAN2017 23.9 0.1 25.0-0.5 26.1-0.5 28.2-0.1
11JAN2017 25.1 0.9 25.5-0.1 26.2-0.3 28.2-0.1
18JAN2017 26.2 1.6 25.8 0.1 26.4-0.2 28.1-0.1
25JAN2017 26.9 2.0 25.9 0.0 26.2-0.4 28.1-0.1


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 3 2017, 04:39 PM
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There we have it folks. This has officially been a La Nina event. I'd call it a high-end weak event.



Currently the ENSO looks like a hybrid of 2015-16's Super Nino in the east and a weak Nina in the west



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Feb 12 2017, 08:32 AM
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And there it goes.

Goodbye La Nina. It's now Officially the end of it.

Now we are in Neutral and wait to see if El Nino Develops this summer.


QUOTE
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niņa Advisory


EL NIŅO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 9 February 2017


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2017. La Niņa conditions are no longer present, with slightly below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central equatorial Pacific and above-average SSTs increasing in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest weekly Niņo index values were -0.3°C in the westernmost Niņo-4 and Niņo3.4 regions, and +1.5°C in the easternmost Niņo-1+2 region (Fig. 2). The upper-ocean heat content anomaly increased during January and was slightly positive when averaged across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), a reflection of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western tropical Pacific, and upper-level westerly winds were near average. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system is consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions.



The temp anomalies for all regions.




The forecast for Region 3.4



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