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> Stratospheric/ Ozone Information and Discussion 2017/18, Daily PV talk and model discussion
grace
post Nov 20 2017, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 20 2017, 01:46 PM) *
All of the hoopla on Twitter and nothing here? I'd say Europe energy demand will be through the roof with the split being modeled.



Are you talking about Ed O'Toole's tweet about the vortex splitting 3 ways at 30pha with one lobe in east Canada?

https://twitter.com/chionomaniac/status/932649229352304640
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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 21 2017, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 20 2017, 04:46 PM) *
All of the hoopla on Twitter and nothing here? I'd say Europe energy demand will be through the roof with the split being modeled.


Well I dont have a twitter so I dont really see it unless its posted here which well we will leave it at that...

Havent gotten the chance with a weird work schedule but may take a look at it later tonight and see if we can start getting some nice wave activity.

QUOTE(grace @ Nov 20 2017, 05:45 PM) *
Are you talking about Ed O'Toole's tweet about the vortex splitting 3 ways at 30pha with one lobe in east Canada?

https://twitter.com/chionomaniac/status/932649229352304640


That would be some cold cold cold over Europe! Tricky thing for sure is the area of 30-50mb and how it reacts this winter since around 50hPa we still see westerly winds under easterlies. Should be able to get some fun activity soon hopefully since we are getting into december.


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jdrenken
post Nov 21 2017, 07:07 PM
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Darn phone won't let me see the reply buttons under y'all's post. I agree with the assessment of where the cold is focused. Europe is the winner for sure!


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 21 2017, 08:42 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2017, 09:07 PM) *
Darn phone won't let me see the reply buttons under y'all's post. I agree with the assessment of where the cold is focused. Europe is the winner for sure!


Yes looks like a fairly classic cold pattern for that portion of Europe in due time. Other area in central U.S. may provide the ground for maybe some expansion southward of the snow cover but that is kind of iffy at this moment.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 26 2017, 04:24 PM
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Havent updated in awhile but figured I would throw some things this way.

We currently have some decent ozone pooling taking place in eastern Asia leading to a warming episode that can be seen in namely the GFS.

Attached File  OZONE_D2017_11_22_G_716X716.IOMPS_PNPP_V21_MGEOS5FP_LNH.PNG ( 364.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


Right now we have somewhat conflicting ideas between models they both essentially take this warming potential and treat it differently with time. You will have to click these to get them animated I believe.

EURO:

10hPa
Attached File  Euro_strat_10hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 275.64K ) Number of downloads: 5


30hPa
Attached File  Euro_strat_30hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 238.91K ) Number of downloads: 2


100hPa
Attached File  Euro_strat_100hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 239.27K ) Number of downloads: 2


GFS 30hPa:
Attached File  GFS_strat_30hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 897.89K ) Number of downloads: 0



What Im seeing is the Euro is not seeing this push much above say 30hPa but causes some disruptions for sure to the PV. The lower portion starts to take a beating and that could provide some fun as we move into December, but initially with the push of the PV there looks to be a connection that takes place in Europe for the end of November beginning of December for some cold. Another warming possibility comes after the first week of December and this is where the GFS and Euro tend to differ. GFS wants to go all out and do a reversal of winds making it a wave 1 SSW idea into the Canada region reaching up to 10hPa even, not as strong at this level. How it goes from there is anyones idea as far as cold displacement. Euro wants to possibly get this idea going but doesnt really push a warming in the LR. First call I would say sustained cold into Europe as well as NE Asia with a possibility of cold outbreaks into the central portion of the U.S. and eventually east after the first week December, more so likely the second week.

This depends on how the MT event unfolds,looks rather ehh right now but may be enough to provide a change, with continous wave activity into the bering sea allowing energy to push poleward and vertically. One good thing that could come of this is the idea of maybe switching the PNA allowing nice ridging through west coast and intermountain west combined with a -NAO to help lock the pattern in a bit but it really depends on which model perception you believe. The Euro has been consistent in showing mini wave activity over time but GFS goes bonkers sometimes so best thing to do for now is track and follow how things are going to go.

Another thing could pop up is the MJO activity. Given the mjo wave doesn't look large in amplitude in the 3 region(maritime) we probably wont see a big MT event, for now, and continue low through 4-6 and maybe spark something as we get closer to 7?

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Nov 26 2017, 04:27 PM


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jdrenken
post Nov 26 2017, 08:51 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 26 2017, 03:24 PM) *
Havent updated in awhile but figured I would throw some things this way.

We currently have some decent ozone pooling taking place in eastern Asia leading to a warming episode that can be seen in namely the GFS.

Attached File  OZONE_D2017_11_22_G_716X716.IOMPS_PNPP_V21_MGEOS5FP_LNH.PNG ( 364.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


Right now we have somewhat conflicting ideas between models they both essentially take this warming potential and treat it differently with time. You will have to click these to get them animated I believe.

EURO:

10hPa
Attached File  Euro_strat_10hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 275.64K ) Number of downloads: 5


30hPa
Attached File  Euro_strat_30hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 238.91K ) Number of downloads: 2


100hPa
Attached File  Euro_strat_100hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 239.27K ) Number of downloads: 2


GFS 30hPa:
Attached File  GFS_strat_30hPa_11_26_17.gif ( 897.89K ) Number of downloads: 0

What Im seeing is the Euro is not seeing this push much above say 30hPa but causes some disruptions for sure to the PV. The lower portion starts to take a beating and that could provide some fun as we move into December, but initially with the push of the PV there looks to be a connection that takes place in Europe for the end of November beginning of December for some cold. Another warming possibility comes after the first week of December and this is where the GFS and Euro tend to differ. GFS wants to go all out and do a reversal of winds making it a wave 1 SSW idea into the Canada region reaching up to 10hPa even, not as strong at this level. How it goes from there is anyones idea as far as cold displacement. Euro wants to possibly get this idea going but doesnt really push a warming in the LR. First call I would say sustained cold into Europe as well as NE Asia with a possibility of cold outbreaks into the central portion of the U.S. and eventually east after the first week December, more so likely the second week.

This depends on how the MT event unfolds,looks rather ehh right now but may be enough to provide a change, with continous wave activity into the bering sea allowing energy to push poleward and vertically. One good thing that could come of this is the idea of maybe switching the PNA allowing nice ridging through west coast and intermountain west combined with a -NAO to help lock the pattern in a bit but it really depends on which model perception you believe. The Euro has been consistent in showing mini wave activity over time but GFS goes bonkers sometimes so best thing to do for now is track and follow how things are going to go.

Another thing could pop up is the MJO activity. Given the mjo wave doesn't look large in amplitude in the 3 region(maritime) we probably wont see a big MT event, for now, and continue low through 4-6 and maybe spark something as we get closer to 7?


Great job on the discussion! The only thing I have to add is how I believe you are a bit quick on the cold impacts. We know there is a delay of 1-2 weeks from the height of an SSW to make it to the surface.

Everyone getting excited over 384hr 10-30-50mb GEFS plots need to calm down.
  1. They favor Europe and Siberia!
  2. It's 15 days away so that puts us in the time frame of 3-4 weeks until we would even see the impact.
  3. Comes back to it not being a lock for eastern us cold!


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jdrenken
post Nov 26 2017, 11:12 PM
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Continuing on my post...

Lu et al 2014...

QUOTE
The lagged composites suggest that the MJO-related anomalies in the Arctic are very likely initiated when the MJO-related convection is active over the equatorial Indian Ocean (around the MJO phase 3). Further analysis suggests that the QBO may modulate the MJO-related wave disturbances via its influence on the upper tropospheric subtropical jet. As a result, the MJO-related circulation pattern in the Arctic tends to be wave number-one/wave number-two ~2530 days following phase 3


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 27 2017, 07:22 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 26 2017, 10:51 PM) *
Great job on the discussion! The only thing I have to add is how I believe you are a bit quick on the cold impacts. We know there is a delay of 1-2 weeks from the height of an SSW to make it to the surface.

Everyone getting excited over 384hr 10-30-50mb GEFS plots need to calm down.
  1. They favor Europe and Siberia!
  2. It's 15 days away so that puts us in the time frame of 3-4 weeks until we would even see the impact.
  3. Comes back to it not being a lock for eastern us cold!


I tend to agree with the cold aspect but the initial, current, warming will be mostly trop/lower strat type of situation since it barely gets above 50hPa kind of nudge if you will. Then the second stronger piece of the potential warming, maybe SSW, should really have stronger impacts not quite all the way up to top of the strat but enough to really put the squeeze on the vortex and with the placement it looks to go over to the Eurasia region anyway. Slightly off placement to get some real cold to come on down might cause the storm track to change but that is of course down the road.

Yes I do agree I tend to not really go past much of the 10 day timeframe for looking at models let alone the strat forecast. If the models idea is correct the ball should get rolling around the 6th-9th timeframe and get in its position by about 10th-12th. So the real outbreak of cold wont of course be until closer to the end of December, where that is as you state is anyones clue right now. We will start to slowly descend into the cold though around 1st to second week of December though. By this time we will most likely have kicked out of the warm phase of the MJO as well.

Gonna be cool to see if this manages to happen in this fashion, I get the feeling central and eastern Europe may get the brunt of the cold as well as some of NE Asia but thats my thought right now.


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jdrenken
post Nov 30 2017, 12:15 PM
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A little tidbit from Dr. Butler shows why some need to really think about utilizing even the GEFS when it comes to stratosphere forecast.

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/936265662649065472


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It's a work in progress!

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StL weatherjunki...
post Nov 30 2017, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 30 2017, 12:15 PM) *
A little tidbit from Dr. Butler shows why some need to really think about utilizing even the GEFS when it comes to stratosphere forecast.

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/936265662649065472

Yup, monitoring trends in forecast models is known to provide more insight into a forecast than a single model run. However, that doesn't mean nobody should look at individual runs of the GEFS as I think your post implies.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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jdrenken
post Nov 30 2017, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 30 2017, 01:07 PM) *
Yup, monitoring trends in forecast models is known to provide more insight into a forecast than a single model run. However, that doesn't mean nobody should look at individual runs of the GEFS as I think your post implies.


Looking and worshiping via social media and forums are two different things. Not to mention I was warning people that the junk being spewed about how the stratosphere was the contributor was drivile.

QUOTE
It's all a matter of perception and who's perception is all that matters.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Nov 30 2017, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 30 2017, 05:15 PM) *
Looking and worshiping via social media and forums are two different things. Not to mention I was warning people that the junk being spewed about how the stratosphere was the contributor was drivile.


I would rather much take the Euro in consistency with the Strat, but the GFS does have a tendency to seek out the events before anyone else hops on it so it is not all for naught. I just wouldnt hop on the band wagon without having some backup.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 1 2017, 06:42 PM
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I do not normally post things well in advance but figured this would may be something of interest later on. GFS and Euro seem solidly hooked on the idea of the displacement idea taking place but what has my interest is the time period around mid december. I know its well out in advance and the models will play around with this as time goes on but it was not too long ago that the Euro was just starting to get into range of seeing this as well as the GFS had it for a decent bit which we now see coming to fruition. It is nice to see that what was forecasted is seemingly going to happen as well. What really gets my interest in the LR is that the GFS wants to start a top down warming idea which we have not seen occur in quite some time usually if coupled with lower strat/trop warming could lead to some big things down the road.

GFS 10hPa
Attached File  GFS_strat_10hPa_12_1_17.gif ( 1.02MB ) Number of downloads: 0


GFS 30hPa
Attached File  GFS_strat_30hPa_12_1_17.gif ( 1.31MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Euro @10hPa (For some reason the Euro map never goes on its on, so click for animation)
Attached File  Euro_strat_10hPa_12_1_17.gif ( 1000.92K ) Number of downloads: 1


Euro not quite seeing it to hour 240 but unfortunately that is all you really get with this. Will continue to monitor this as we progress. May have to do another quick update sometime this week.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Dec 1 2017, 06:44 PM


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VASnowstormHunte...
post Dec 11 2017, 11:24 AM
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****Bumping this thread****

Based on my super amateur eyes, it looks like the PV is definitely being shoved off the pole over the next 10 days. However; its on the wrong side of the world it seems. There looks to be a huge center of above normal heights migrating east from the Beaufort Sea/northern Yukon area toward western Greenland. This results in the entire flow around the pole being completely cut off from North America.

So my question for this board... what are the optimal positions for the above and below normal heights to potentially drive North America cold?

I've done my obligatory search on Google to try and learn, but couldnt seem to find anything that was clear on the aforementioned question. Appreciate any insights!
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jdrenken
post Dec 11 2017, 11:31 AM
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QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Dec 11 2017, 10:24 AM) *
****Bumping this thread****

Based on my super amateur eyes, it looks like the PV is definitely being shoved off the pole over the next 10 days. However; its on the wrong side of the world it seems. There looks to be a huge center of above normal heights migrating east from the Beaufort Sea/northern Yukon area toward western Greenland. This results in the entire flow around the pole being completely cut off from North America.

So my question for this board... what are the optimal positions for the above and below normal heights to potentially drive North America cold?

I've done my obligatory search on Google to try and learn, but couldnt seem to find anything that was clear on the aforementioned question. Appreciate any insights!


The optimal thing that you want is a split to happen with lower heights over Hudson Bay or a displaced PV over NA and not Siberia or Europe.

That's what got soo many people who were calling for 1977, 2010, or 2014 cold in trouble. Despite the overwhelming evidence that the PV was favoring Siberia or Europe they still pushed the agenda.

Seasonal cold is not the work of a displaced PV.


--------------------
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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VASnowstormHunte...
post Dec 11 2017, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 11 2017, 11:31 AM) *
The optimal thing that you want is a split to happen with lower heights over Hudson Bay or a displaced PV over NA and not Siberia or Europe.

That's what got soo many people who were calling for 1977, 2010, or 2014 cold in trouble. Despite the overwhelming evidence that the PV was favoring Siberia or Europe they still pushed the agenda.

Seasonal cold is not the work of a displaced PV.


Thanks for the quick reply. Your answer was my gut intuition, but I was thrown by several articles (non-academic) trying to make the contrary case. Net, knowing you all are far more into the weeds than I am on this topic, I knew I could find clarity here. smile.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 11 2017, 01:21 PM
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QUOTE(VASnowstormHunter @ Dec 11 2017, 01:24 PM) *
****Bumping this thread****

Based on my super amateur eyes, it looks like the PV is definitely being shoved off the pole over the next 10 days. However; its on the wrong side of the world it seems. There looks to be a huge center of above normal heights migrating east from the Beaufort Sea/northern Yukon area toward western Greenland. This results in the entire flow around the pole being completely cut off from North America.

So my question for this board... what are the optimal positions for the above and below normal heights to potentially drive North America cold?

I've done my obligatory search on Google to try and learn, but couldnt seem to find anything that was clear on the aforementioned question. Appreciate any insights!



QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 11 2017, 01:31 PM) *
The optimal thing that you want is a split to happen with lower heights over Hudson Bay or a displaced PV over NA and not Siberia or Europe.

That's what got soo many people who were calling for 1977, 2010, or 2014 cold in trouble. Despite the overwhelming evidence that the PV was favoring Siberia or Europe they still pushed the agenda.

Seasonal cold is not the work of a displaced PV.



Pretty much this if you look back at the initial portion of the warming process we saw it coming from the NW Pac from the constant barrage of storms into the Bering sea that allowed for heights to rise and coincide with a 500mb ridging which allowed the cold to slide in the progression of this feature in the strat was surely a slow one so hence why we have been in the cold for a bit, not severe though as JD alluded which is better during a split. The progression of the displacements leads me to believe to watch out for something come January with the MJO progression still taking place and possibly a reload of the same pattern of storm activity into the Bering sea region. We will see how it goes though nothing is ever really guaranteed because we could just as easily see another displacement event and not break the PV down this year.

These past few years have been fun watching the PV and understanding it progression is not always as you think it would go. Also thanks for the addition any other questions are greatly welcomed and will try to do an update either later today or tomorrow on maybe future ideas.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Dec 11 2017, 01:22 PM


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grace
post Dec 13 2017, 12:02 AM
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Interesting look at the end of the 0z GFS. You know it's gospel that late in the run smile.gif


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=511
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 30 2017, 05:19 PM
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Well its been a minute but found some time at work after reading in some other threads yesterday. Overall we have had quite the winter thus far in the east pretty noticeable changes that have been led by trop interactions into the lower Strat. We have had warmings that have only led to displacements which is a good thing for now but would like to look down the road at either return of PV up north or for it to come crashing and ripping apart.

Well here is something I found rather cool was taking a look at heat flux with height through time. Pretty impressive stuff coming in from the troposphere to influence our weather.

Attached File  vT__lat_p_30N_80N_zm.pdf ( 413.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


You can see the regions through much of December that allowed for nice heat flux regions.Attached File  compday.QfkgYo5n0h.gif ( 20.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


As well as aloft where most of the warming has been with the displacement/weakening of the PV.

Attached File  compday.eBDeFQx0of.gif ( 20.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now taking a look at the model world things are starting to get rather interesting as we head into the future. There seems to be another strat warming taking place with displacement of PV but one thing I wanna make clear is if the pattern off the eastern U.S. into the Atlantic becomes more active than being modeled and has stronger systems look for increased heat flux on this side of the globe making for a possible fun time around mid to late January. The Euro kind of hints at the idea as it closes in on mid month, but one thing seems to be for sure is that the ridging pattern that has been present in the west and AK region does not look like it will go away anytime soon as it will have strat support connecting with troposphere.

Here is 100hPa and 10hPa respectively for the Euro from 12z yesterday.
Unfortunately with these three you will have to click to animate
Attached File  12_29_Euro_100hPa_strat.gif ( 916.59K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  12_29_Euro_10hPa_strat.gif ( 1.06MB ) Number of downloads: 2


GFS 12z 10hPa
Attached File  12_30_12z_GFS_10hPa_strat.gif ( 287.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Can kind of start to see stark differences in amplitude of the wave from Euro to GFS as well as end placement. I took them both out to 240, should have done just to 216 for GFS since that would align better with end time of Euro but here nor there.

GFS a bit weaker on warming signal Euro stronger and more impactful and shows signs of something down the road from Atlantic activity while GFS holds that side rather strong through the period. Who is right? Well from past experience the GFS tends to sniff out the pattern but the Euro does over amplify the idea some times. One thing to watch is the IO and maritime region as activity via MJO and tropical convection picks up. Region 2-3 correspond well with large impulses of heat into the Strat from storm activity. So those two or three things will have to be watched MJO/Trop convection, Atlantic activity, and how the EPO/WPO/ridge pattern sets up.

Looks like we have a relod period from about january 8th-13th where we dont necessarily warm in the east but have sort of a pattern reload if you will. This will come in time I feel but will have to monitor some models are really squashing this idea but trop/strat interaction will take a bit to realign again but looks like the second half of January is quite cold based off a similar pattern as we saw just recently.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Dec 30 2017, 05:19 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 31 2017, 09:39 PM
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Was away from the dozens and dozen of links on my laptop for 10 days so I'm just now catching up on things like this... but wow, for the -AO we've been in, I'm surprised the Strato PV is holding as strong as it is.

Looks like there's some poleward heat flux coming up that may try to weaken the PV from the top, though doesn't look like it'll have a long-term impact on its strength.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 31 2017, 09:41 PM


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