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> Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away
ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2018, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 19 2018, 12:09 AM) *
What's the consensus of volcanic eruptions in the equatorial region for climate impacts?

Probably not high enough to mess with anything. 7.5km is only about 400mb. I think it's gotta go up into the Stratosphere for an impact.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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kpk33x
post Feb 19 2018, 12:24 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 19 2018, 01:13 AM) *
Probably not high enough to mess with anything. 7.5km is only about 400mb. I think it's gotta go up into the Stratosphere for an impact.


+1
And there is a lag to the effects if they do come, they would be noted next winter. Pinatubo erupted June 1991, you started seeing nice sunsets in September, but main impacts were spring/summer 1992.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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jdrenken
post Feb 19 2018, 12:36 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Feb 18 2018, 11:24 PM) *
+1
And there is a lag to the effects if they do come, they would be noted next winter. Pinatubo erupted June 1991, you started seeing nice sunsets in September, but main impacts were spring/summer 1992.


Ah... thanks for the info from both of you!


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2018, 01:12 PM
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Going back to my Climo days, what happens in volcanic winters is the large volume of ash gets locked in the Stratosphere and creates some sort of a greenhouse-like effect, except it blocks energy from passing through the Stratosphere into the Troposphere instead of blocking energy from exiting the Troposphere through the Stratosphere.

The fact that this eruption occurred near the equator complicates the situation even if the ash did make it to the Stratosphere. I'm not sure which hemisphere the ash would go to, since the winds around the equator are so weak and chaotic throughout the atmosphere. That would be interesting to see.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 19 2018, 01:14 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 20 2018, 10:55 AM
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So now that the snow has melted away I noticed in my flower beds this morning the Tulip and Daffodils are popping thru, nothing out of the ordinary however for mid February around Baltimore's 95 corridor.

Just really gets ya thinking SPRING is not that farrr away when the flowers begin to imerge and your seeing on television your favorite baseball team working out with Spring training.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  IMG_3186.JPG ( 576.95K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  IMG_3190.JPG ( 477.21K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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Removed_Member_idecline_*
post Feb 20 2018, 03:34 PM
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...from USGS...https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/gas_climate.html

Attached File  img3273_900w_690h.png ( 448.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


QUOTE
Volcanoes can affect the Earth's climate.
Volcanoes can impact climate change. During major explosive eruptions huge amounts of volcanic gas, aerosol droplets, and ash are injected into the stratosphere. Injected ash falls rapidly from the stratosphere -- most of it is removed within several days to weeks -- and has little impact on climate change. But volcanic gases like sulfur dioxide can cause global cooling, while volcanic carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, has the potential to promote global warming.

Sulfate aerosols can cool the climate and deplete Earth's ozone layer.
Volcanic gases react with the atmosphere in various ways; the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid has the most significant impact on climate.
(Click image to view full size.)
Volcanic gases react with the atmosphere in various ways; the conversion of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to sulfuric acid (H2SO4) has the most significant impact on climate.


The most significant climate impacts from volcanic injections into the stratosphere come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid, which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere.

Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit scale) for periods of one to three years. The climactic eruption of Mount Pinatubo on June 15, 1991, was one of the largest eruptions of the twentieth century and injected a 20-million ton (metric scale) sulfur dioxide cloud into the stratosphere at an altitude of more than 20 miles. The Pinatubo cloud was the largest sulfur dioxide cloud ever observed in the stratosphere since the beginning of such observations by satellites in 1978. It caused what is believed to be the largest aerosol disturbance of the stratosphere in the twentieth century, though probably smaller than the disturbances from eruptions of Krakatau in 1883 and Tambora in 1815. Consequently, it was a standout in its climate impact and cooled the Earth's surface for three years following the eruption, by as much as 1.3 degrees F at the height of the impact.

The large 1783-1784 Laki fissure eruption in Iceland released a staggering amount more sulfur dioxide than Pinatubo (approximately 120-million ton vs. 20). Although the two eruptions were significantly different in length and style, the added atmospheric SO2 caused regional cooling of Europe and North America by similar amounts for similar periods of time....(continued)




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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 21 2018, 05:32 PM
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Love watching spring come in. You wouldn't see these kind of systems in late December or January. Referring not only to the rich moisture despite the relatively weak system, but also the dryline that extends almost to the IA/IL/MO tristate area.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 21 2018, 05:33 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 22 2018, 11:56 AM
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I was driving down the back roads last night and the FROGS were just ah screaming at every pond and or marsh land I passed, and this was not at all the case literary 2 nights ago.

Not sure if it was the 2 recent days in the 70's/80's for which brought them out of the wood work, but WOW!
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Solstice
post Feb 22 2018, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Feb 20 2018, 03:34 PM) *
...from USGS...https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vhp/gas_climate.html
Attached File  img3273_900w_690h.png ( 448.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


Yeah... that Laki Fissure eruption is awesome. I understand that this is off topic but can't help myself. Views of the fissure are just simply awe inspiring.
Attached File  laki_iceland_crators.jpg ( 373.34K ) Number of downloads: 5


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 23 2018, 05:01 PM
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New TNI in. October 2017 TNI has decreased for the 4th straight month. A strongly negative TNI for spring looks possible at this rate

QUOTE
2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097
2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -99.990
2018 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990
-99.99


Not sure why we're just now getting the October number in but whatever.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 23 2018, 05:18 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 19 2018, 02:09 AM) *
What's the consensus of volcanic eruptions in the equatorial region for climate impacts?


Takes a while to feel the affects from it but 7.5km is meh videos seem to push that close to tropopause level so that would have a more interesting impact. Need it to be a big blast talking big a long lasting to really have any major implications other than a slight cooling period. Usually eruptions like this seem to affect over the next year with slight lessening of incoming radiation amounts which will cause a slight net cooling combo it with other cooling teles and may have a bit of a larger impact. Im waiting on Agung as that will more than likely be a larger eruption past shows it tends to have rather large eruptions on the order of VEI 5 maybe 6??

One thing is the tropical volcanic activity is picking up quite a bit so wonder what we see as we head down the road.

Edit: Oh wow saw all the other posts on this as well good stuff. Been following a thread for Agung over in american where some really useful info has been thrown out there not many threads out in the forum world on volcanic activity so take it when you can. Seems that there are different types of vents for different times during the eruption process that also play a factor in what to expect after eruption.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Feb 23 2018, 05:27 PM


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andyhb
post Feb 24 2018, 02:30 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 23 2018, 02:01 PM) *
New TNI in. October 2017 TNI has decreased for the 4th straight month. A strongly negative TNI for spring looks possible at this rate
Not sure why we're just now getting the October number in but whatever.

Actually it's increasing since the magnitude of the negative numbers is getting smaller.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 24 2018, 05:56 PM
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QUOTE(andyhb @ Feb 24 2018, 02:30 AM) *
Actually it's increasing since the magnitude of the negative numbers is getting smaller.

Oops you're right. Embarrassing laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 26 2018, 05:52 PM
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Looks like it's going to warm up in mid-March. Big ridge takes over far east Asia, trough over Mongolia this weekend suggests another Nina-like pattern with a ridge in the east/trough out west around March 11.



Somewhat short-lived ridge as a trough comes in a day later. The jet stream is displaced pretty far to the north, I wonder if we'll see the jet stream retreat way north too.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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RobB
post Feb 27 2018, 02:35 PM
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2/27 12Z NAEFS:
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gulfofslides
post Feb 27 2018, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 26 2018, 05:52 PM) *
Looks like it's going to warm up in mid-March. Big ridge takes over far east Asia, trough over Mongolia this weekend suggests another Nina-like pattern with a ridge in the east/trough out west around March 11.



Somewhat short-lived ridge as a trough comes in a day later. The jet stream is displaced pretty far to the north, I wonder if we'll see the jet stream retreat way north too.

That can't be, JB's cold March forecast will bust. There goes the "Delayed but not Denied" mantra laugh.gif
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kpk33x
post Feb 27 2018, 03:34 PM
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Not having direct access to the Euro, I can understand why there's a lot of folks on the EC upset with the model waffling (EDIT - on the 3/1-3/3 event, specifically, but applies to many storms). Especially if you have to keep looking at the GFS.

I'm sure there is one somewhere, but can someone give me an example where the GooFuS GFS nailed a storm days out and the Euro, CMC and other models bowed to it? Even if there are examples, I'll bet the ratio of the Euro nailing days out and other models caving over the GFS doing the same is about 20:1. I would love it if someone here had a scorecard on how the models did for each storm over a winter. An A+ for hitting nearly 100% 4 days out versus F for a 1/25/2000 scenario.

From my experience in these forums, the worst waffling comes in such marginal circumstances where we're talking about a 40 mile shift here or there or 1 or 2 degree here or there meaning the difference between a historical storm and a cold rain. Or a sunny day. Even the Euro doesn't have a good handle on this one, but I'm going to tend to believe it over the GFS no matter what its showing until the GFS shows me why I shouldn't.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Feb 27 2018, 03:35 PM


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 27 2018, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Feb 27 2018, 03:34 PM) *
Not having direct access to the Euro, I can understand why there's a lot of folks on the EC upset with the model waffling (EDIT - on the 3/1-3/3 event, specifically, but applies to many storms). Especially if you have to keep looking at the GFS.

I'm sure there is one somewhere, but can someone give me an example where the GooFuS GFS nailed a storm days out and the Euro, CMC and other models bowed to it? Even if there are examples, I'll bet the ratio of the Euro nailing days out and other models caving over the GFS doing the same is about 20:1. I would love it if someone here had a scorecard on how the models did for each storm over a winter. An A+ for hitting nearly 100% 4 days out versus F for a 1/25/2000 scenario.

From my experience in these forums, the worst waffling comes in such marginal circumstances where we're talking about a 40 mile shift here or there or 1 or 2 degree here or there meaning the difference between a historical storm and a cold rain. Or a sunny day. Even the Euro doesn't have a good handle on this one, but I'm going to tend to believe it over the GFS no matter what its showing until the GFS shows me why I shouldn't.

The recent severe weather event on 2/24 was an example of GFS figuring out the pattern before the rest. It was the only one showing a negative tilt/rapid cyclogenesis which would result in a greater severe threat. The other models were showing a weaker system with less impressive cyclogenesis. This disagreement was mentioned by SPC on day 3 or 4. I tried to document it well in the severe thread.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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kpk33x
post Feb 27 2018, 08:18 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 27 2018, 04:42 PM) *
The recent severe weather event on 2/24 was an example of GFS figuring out the pattern before the rest. It was the only one showing a negative tilt/rapid cyclogenesis which would result in a greater severe threat. The other models were showing a weaker system with less impressive cyclogenesis. This disagreement was mentioned by SPC on day 3 or 4. I tried to document it well in the severe thread.


Thanks. Missed that one. Haven't been on the forums as much as I used to...feel like I miss out on the fun of predicting EC snowstorms.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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Solstice
post Feb 27 2018, 09:27 PM
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Just some SOI stuff.
Attached File  chart__12_.png ( 35.09K ) Number of downloads: 6


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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