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> Long Range Winter 2018-2019: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
grace
post Jul 14 2018, 02:56 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 14 2018, 11:24 AM) *
So, not that I am looking to pee in your Wheaties here, but the JAMSTEC hasn't done so well in recent years, with respect to the July forecast...
2017-2018 Winter

[attachment=356914:17_jamstec.gif]
[attachment=356913:17_actual.png]
2016-2017 Winter

[attachment=356912:16_jamstec.gif]
[attachment=356911:16_actual.png]
It does have a decent track record though, especially in respect to other climate models, so maybe it's just been struggling post-Super El Nino? Who knows, maybe this year will be the year that it gets back on track!



I didn't post because I thought it had it nailed. laugh.gif
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weather_boy2010
post Jul 15 2018, 06:24 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 14 2018, 02:56 PM) *
I didn't post because I thought it had it nailed. laugh.gif


Lol, I didn't figure you did. Just thought I'd throw it out there how its performed as of lately. You know how some like to latch onto one idea and not budge from it...
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KDPPenmen
post Jul 15 2018, 11:02 AM
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So in my town in CT, we are seeing A LOT of acorns falling already. Isn't a lot of acorns a sign of a bad winter coming?
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NorEaster07
post Jul 15 2018, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE(KDPPenmen @ Jul 15 2018, 11:02 AM) *
So in my town in CT, we are seeing A LOT of acorns falling already. Isn't a lot of acorns a sign of a bad winter coming?


Haha. what?? blink.gif Oak leaves just got full few weeks ago. Acorns take 4+ months to mature and a month to drop...No way at all acorns have grown and or fell yet. I suspect the tree is sick or maybe its another type of nut?
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Solstice
post Jul 15 2018, 03:21 PM
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QUOTE(KDPPenmen @ Jul 15 2018, 12:02 PM) *
So in my town in CT, we are seeing A LOT of acorns falling already. Isn't a lot of acorns a sign of a bad winter coming?


Can you post some pictures? Not that I don't believe you, just want to check how large the acorns are.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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grace
post Jul 15 2018, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 15 2018, 06:24 AM) *
Lol, I didn't figure you did. Just thought I'd throw it out there how its performed as of lately. You know how some like to latch onto one idea and not budge from it...



I posted more so out of amusement & love...lol.

What's interesting is that CanSips, NNME, CFS, JAMSTEC seem to all agree on a lot of Alaska & west coast blocking & troughiness east. They disagree on exact anomalies. I pretty much ignore anomalies. I also would not make too big of a deal on the blocking agreement idea at this point....but certainly have noted.
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travis3000
post Jul 15 2018, 06:59 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 15 2018, 05:31 PM) *
I posted more so out of amusement & love...lol.

What's interesting is that CanSips, NNME, CFS, JAMSTEC seem to all agree on a lot of Alaska & west coast blocking & troughiness east. They disagree on exact anomalies. I pretty much ignore anomalies. I also would not make too big of a deal on the blocking agreement idea at this point....but certainly have noted.


Euro showing a super hot December in the east, just saying.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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grace
post Jul 15 2018, 08:17 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jul 15 2018, 06:59 PM) *
Euro showing a super hot December in the east, just saying.



So are some others...then nearly universal wintry east look for JAN/FEB. Heck...CanSips has below normal anomalies for U.S. which I was beginning to wonder if CanSips ever would again.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jul 15 2018, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 15 2018, 09:17 PM) *
So are some others...then nearly universal wintry east look for JAN/FEB. Heck...CanSips has below normal anomalies for U.S. which I was beginning to wonder if CanSips ever would again.


CANSIPs is a joke for seasonal forecasting.

Yeah, JAMSTEC is about as good as it gets for winter lovers. The down side of that is just that; it can't get any better... which isn't something you would want this far out.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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grace
post Jul 16 2018, 07:58 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jul 15 2018, 11:32 PM) *
CANSIPs is a joke for seasonal forecasting.

Yeah, JAMSTEC is about as good as it gets for winter lovers. The down side of that is just that; it can't get any better... which isn't something you would want this far out.



Exactly!! With ENSO evolution still unknown anything being modeled this far out doesn't mean much at all.

Any of the cold models are based on the assumption of a modoki/hybrid El Nino. But even a modoki/hybrid El Nino is no guarantee for cold in the east. Things can go wrong for sure.

This post has been edited by grace: Jul 16 2018, 08:03 AM
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Southern Missour...
post Jul 28 2018, 04:33 PM
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Any new thoughts???
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jdrenken
post Jul 29 2018, 11:32 AM
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Nobody here, but be weary about people who tweet how ENSO determination is outdated or can't figure out what statistical significance is when looking at MJO charts.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 29 2018, 11:47 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 29 2018, 12:32 PM) *
Nobody here, but be weary about people who tweet how ENSO determination is outdated or can't figure out what statistical significance is when looking at MJO charts.


Gotta do some more digging on ENSO and climo for myself. Getting a good handle on MJO activity and its correlation as of late. Going to settle in one of these nights and sit down at my computer and just make a whole bunch of stuff. Looking to set up a site that goes into each category more in detail. I remember asking you about this but there seems to be no reason for doing so here now. Hopefully can get it done before the site shuts down. I wanna make it a go to for basics and a little more in depth going to talk to a coworker who may be able to help. He currently is setting up a site for past TS and hurricanes/typhoons in I believe all basins.



--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
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2017/2018


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jdrenken
post Jul 29 2018, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 29 2018, 11:47 AM) *
Gotta do some more digging on ENSO and climo for myself. Getting a good handle on MJO activity and its correlation as of late. Going to settle in one of these nights and sit down at my computer and just make a whole bunch of stuff. Looking to set up a site that goes into each category more in detail. I remember asking you about this but there seems to be no reason for doing so here now. Hopefully can get it done before the site shuts down. I wanna make it a go to for basics and a little more in depth going to talk to a coworker who may be able to help. He currently is setting up a site for past TS and hurricanes/typhoons in I believe all basins.


That site is going to be huge! Sooo many impacts associated with different flavors of ENSO! One of my projects I to provide my daily SOI composites on a subscription basis.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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PoconoSnow
post Jul 29 2018, 05:28 PM
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Always a good site and I try and repost it often

Link gives patterns for the northern hemisphere from NOAA ESRL by MJO, month, and state of ENSO.

http://meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Fun to look at come fall when seasonal enso barrier begins to break and also when we can semi predict the 60-90day mjo propagation

It's been a pretty good bookmark


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Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 30 2018, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jul 29 2018, 05:00 PM) *
That site is going to be huge! Sooo many impacts associated with different flavors of ENSO! One of my projects I to provide my daily SOI composites on a subscription basis.


I know a lot of info but im ready to get it started would be great place for those trying to understand things better.


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Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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grace
post Aug 1 2018, 10:30 AM
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CanSips updated & still has one of the best looking winters I've ever seen the model forecast... which means absolutely nothing! I've never been a fan of of the model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...080100&fh=6
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stuffradio
post Aug 1 2018, 10:45 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jul 29 2018, 09:47 AM) *
Gotta do some more digging on ENSO and climo for myself. Getting a good handle on MJO activity and its correlation as of late. Going to settle in one of these nights and sit down at my computer and just make a whole bunch of stuff. Looking to set up a site that goes into each category more in detail. I remember asking you about this but there seems to be no reason for doing so here now. Hopefully can get it done before the site shuts down. I wanna make it a go to for basics and a little more in depth going to talk to a coworker who may be able to help. He currently is setting up a site for past TS and hurricanes/typhoons in I believe all basins.

Who is shutting down a site and what site is being shut down?
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WeatherMonger
post Aug 1 2018, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Aug 1 2018, 10:45 AM) *
Who is shutting down a site and what site is being shut down?


This site/forum will likely close by year end


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33652
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NorEaster07
post Aug 2 2018, 06:50 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 1 2018, 10:30 AM) *
CanSips updated & still has one of the best looking winters I've ever seen the model forecast... which means absolutely nothing! I've never been a fan of of the model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...080100&fh=6


https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1024984918571536384

Attached File  Screenshot_20180802_074904.png ( 1.22MB ) Number of downloads: 2

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