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> Long Range Winter 2018-2019: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
stuffradio
post Aug 2 2018, 10:31 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Aug 1 2018, 07:30 PM) *
This site/forum will likely close by year end
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=33652

What kind of deal is that? I've been here since 2008. How can they do that to us?
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KENNYP2339
post Aug 2 2018, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 2 2018, 07:50 AM) *
https://twitter.com/wxbywilliams/status/1024984918571536384

[attachment=357165:Screensh...2_074904.png]

#horsecrap
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gulfofslides
post Aug 2 2018, 01:22 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Aug 2 2018, 10:31 AM) *
What kind of deal is that? I've been here since 2008. How can they do that to us?

A bum deal sad.gif
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gulfofslides
post Aug 3 2018, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Aug 2 2018, 01:22 PM) *
A bum deal sad.gif

Saw JB's daily update predicting a warm Dec and cold,stormy Jan and Feb. Usually pretty good in the long range. Curious to see how this pans out. Well not on this site sad.gif
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stretchct
post Aug 3 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Aug 3 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Saw JB's daily update predicting a warm Dec and cold,stormy Jan and Feb. Usually pretty good in the long range. Curious to see how this pans out. Well not on this site sad.gif

What was he basing his forecast on?


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8░
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2░
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77░
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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gulfofslides
post Aug 3 2018, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Aug 3 2018, 12:34 PM) *
What was he basing his forecast on?

analog years
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grace
post Aug 3 2018, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Aug 3 2018, 03:09 PM) *
analog years



I'm willing to bet money he has 2014-15 on his mind
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gulfofslides
post Aug 4 2018, 07:21 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 3 2018, 10:30 PM) *
I'm willing to bet money he has 2014-15 on his mind

yes 2014 was the numero uno analog
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grace
post Aug 6 2018, 08:38 AM
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EPS monthly updated & is going all out winter lover dream 500mb for DJF winter:

https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/1026452522142248960

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 6 2018, 08:57 AM
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phils1
post Aug 6 2018, 01:17 PM
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blocking pattern looks potentially beautiful with active southern branch and agrees with lots of early signs including low solar activity, weak El Nino:
https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/...atlantic-region
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alczervik
post Aug 7 2018, 10:50 AM
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Winter is the easiest season to forecast, especially this upcoming one.

Steps:

1. West coast ridge is drying everything out and heating up the ocean as we speak
2. Blob reforms only this time even stronger than before.
3. Pattern is set

Also, besides a crazy strong east based nino or a strong nina, when is the east ever above average in the winter as a whole like the west coast? Probably no more than 10 times since 1950.

Spring will probably be delayed as trough never leaves and continue indefinitely over the eastern US.

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gulfofslides
post Aug 12 2018, 08:32 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Aug 7 2018, 10:50 AM) *
Winter is the easiest season to forecast, especially this upcoming one.

Steps:

1. West coast ridge is drying everything out and heating up the ocean as we speak
2. Blob reforms only this time even stronger than before.
3. Pattern is set

Also, besides a crazy strong east based nino or a strong nina, when is the east ever above average in the winter as a whole like the west coast? Probably no more than 10 times since 1950.

Spring will probably be delayed as trough never leaves and continue indefinitely over the eastern US.

JB's Sat summary explains your points well
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GiveMeSnow
post Aug 13 2018, 11:30 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Aug 13 2018, 11:36 PM) *
It's actually wxdisco.com now.

Thanks
notice the change after posting here and going over there laugh.gif
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Cold Rain
post Aug 15 2018, 01:44 PM
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QUOTE(snowcrazed71 @ Aug 13 2018, 11:11 PM) *
Off topic, but, I am so frustrated that x are shutting down the Winter Foram. I'm hopeful that there will be another site to go to. Any info or places to do just like axuwethaer­dx


It sucks. www.americanwx.com or www.southernwx.com are two good forums. Lots of mets and insightful posters on both. Amwx is subdivided into regional forums and Southernwx focuses generally from TX to TN to VA and south.
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jdrenken
post Aug 17 2018, 07:41 AM
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QUOTE(Cold Rain @ Aug 15 2018, 01:44 PM) *
It sucks. www.americanwx.com or www.southernwx.com are two good forums. Lots of mets and insightful posters on both. Amwx is subdivided into regional forums and Southernwx focuses generally from TX to TN to VA and south.


Our transplanted forum of wxdisco.com will be great. When word gets out that everyone is heading there we will be fine. Ironic to see your first post point people to other forums instead of wanting them to join us where we are going.


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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Aug 27 2018, 10:27 PM
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laugh.gif

This post has been edited by TheBlizzardOf1978: Aug 27 2018, 10:28 PM
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phils1
post Aug 29 2018, 06:47 PM
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Early signs of the "modoki" El Nino based in the central Pacific...interesting ramifications for the winter.

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/...-the-eastern-us
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bradjl2009
post Aug 31 2018, 06:02 PM
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QUOTE(TheBlizzardOf1978 @ Aug 27 2018, 11:27 PM) *
laugh.gif

If September is looking to be any indication, I would go with the bottom forecast at this rate.
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zigoapex
post Sep 17 2018, 07:53 PM
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QUOTE(TheBlizzardOf1978 @ Aug 27 2018, 10:27 PM) *
laugh.gif

What did they do here, forget to flip the coin, and chose to go with heads and tails? smile.gif
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mikeyj1220
post Oct 18 2018, 04:51 AM
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hello... we still on these forums???


--------------------
Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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