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4 Aug 2017

2017 US fall forecast: Warmth to linger in Northeast; Conditions ripe for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather staff writer

August 03, 2017, 1:55:11 AM EDT

Summer warmth will linger into fall across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, areas farther south will remain alert for tropical hits long after summer has faded.

In the southern Plains, conditions will become ripe for severe weather, including possible tornado outbreaks.

2017 US fall forecast FINAL

Warmth to linger into fall across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic

As children head back to school and swimming pools are closed down for autumn, warm air will linger across much of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

“That doesn’t mean it’s going to be exceptionally warm, but we do feel [temperatures are] going to run above normal,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

However, rainfall will help to hold back extreme heat.

It’s too soon to tell how these factors may affect the vibrancy of the region’s foliage, but windstorms could prevent fall leaves from hanging around for too long, Pastelok said.

Late-season severe weather will threaten to kick in from Albany toward New York City and northern New Jersey.

2017 US fall forecast


Southeast to remain vulnerable to tropical hits

Though the Southeast had an easy start to the hurricane season in 2017, a few tropical hits may threaten to spoil the first half of fall.

“We think that the areas that are more vulnerable this year are still the Gulf Coast and along the Carolina coast,” Pastelok said.

In addition to tropical threats, frequent showers and thunderstorms could lead to flooding, including in areas which had drought last year, such as northern Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee.

Humidity will remain high across the region with few cooldowns predicted until late in the season.

Temperatures to bounce up and down in Midwest, northern Plains

Temperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with cooler air.

“You may be mild for a period, and the next week you could be cooled down for a week. I think that’s the kind of flavor that we’re looking at in the fall coming up,” Pastelok said.

This year, however, forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow, arriving as soon as October.

“It’s always a tough call when you’re going to see that first snowfall in places like Chicago and Des Moines and St. Louis,” Pastelok said.

“Now, this fall may not be off that far from normal, but keep in mind it’s been very difficult to get cold weather in these places over the last several [fall seasons].”

A few bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November, he said.

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Conditions to be ripe for tornado outbreaks across the southern Plains

Severe weather will threaten the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as temperatures run above normal in the Gulf.

"If you get any of these mid- to late-season storms coming down in the northern Plains like we’re expecting, you’re going to get a clash of air masses [in the southern Plains]," Pastelok said.

This clash could cause severe weather to erupt, with the threat for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee, he said.

Showers and thunderstorms may also lead to episodes of flooding in the lower valley of Texas.

Warmth, wildfires to linger across California; Storms to frequent Northwest

Rampant wildfires in the West will calm quickest in regions farther north, as storms stream in from the Pacific.

"Last year, they got slammed in late fall and winter in the Northwest as far as heavy rain and heavy snow go," Pastelok said."

A similar weather pattern this fall likely means the region will once again receive abundant precipitation - though not as much as during the fall of 2016.

According to Pastelok, water temperatures off the West coast are not as high as last year and, therefore, won't foster very strong storms.

Rain and snow will at least total normal levels and have the potential to climb slightly above normal, forecasters predict.

From southwestern Montana down toward California, drier conditions and lingering warmth mean it may take most of fall for wildfires to calm down.

The above is AccuWeather's Fall 2017 outlook, issued 8/3/17. We don't have a thread for fall yet so I figured I may as well make 2 years in a row that I started it.

The warmth hanging on in the northeast - there have been several mild to warm falls in a row. When was the last time that we really had a chilly fall? 2015 and 2016 were warm here. 2014 featured a normal September, warm October, and chilly November to average out at normal. It was also the best fall foliage of the 3 autumns I have enjoyed here. 2013 had a near normal September, warm October, and a chilly enough November to pull the average down to a bit below normal. Really you have to go to 2008 to find a normal September and chilly October and November - none of the 3 months above normal.

ENSO - in a state of flux and there does not seem to be a good handle on where it is going right now. There's been a sharp cooldown, likely in reaction to a post I made about "we could probably rule out a strong Nina" laugh.gif

Another outlook I had seen stated that the Northeast would have an above normal fall tied to warmer than normal ocean temperatures, but there are other factors. AccuWeather believed that the southeast coast (Carolina & Gulf) run the greatest risk of a tropical strike, and if you follow JB he's mentioned maybe once or twice laugh.gif tongue.gif about a 2004 analog when there were several strikes due to a correlation with the August pattern that seems to be developing now. AW has a changeable Plains, and stormy south (which would be dependent upon cold air intrusions from the north) plus a warm west.

I don't have anything to add of my own volition except that my oak trees have been dropping prolific amounts of acorns since mid July, much more than the past 2 years and earlier than in 2014. laugh.gif If any indication from the summer's pattern, we can expect some changeable weather in the east with stormy interludes. This has been a summer of rainy intervals and more thunderstorms here than normal. Last fall was pretty mild and dry, which continued the summer pattern. Of course a tropical system or two would spice things up.

Any thoughts?
3 Aug 2017
The last couple of model runs have been a lot of fun.

Euro, CMC and GFS all in agreement today that a nor'easter that we'd really like to see 4 or 5 months from now is instead going to come in early August.

00z GFS still has it. It almost appears that the remnants from the Aug 4-5 cutter get hung up in Colorado, but it gets going with a severe outbreak in Nebraska on the 6th that holds together into Missouri/Arkansas for a bit on the 7th before weakening. A weak LP appears over southern Indiana 12z on the 7th spreading rain in front of it as far east as I-95 in the Mid Atlantic. By midnight the low is sitting right over Baltimore and there is decent rain going on right where everyone seems to love it so much this summer...MD/DE/PA/NJ/VA. 6 hours later it is over NYC and 6 hours later over Boston and the rain hangs on in New England into the 9th. It seems as if it holds more precip over eastern Maine longer, and they are actually a little dry so they could use it.

On the 7th and 8th in the more southern areas and Apps and the 8th/9th in New England, clouds and rain hold the temperatures down. It appears NYC, DC and Baltimore will struggle to 70 one or two days, PA's in the 60s, meanwhile up here we will be in the 60s and maybe upper 50s.

From what I can tell, the 12z Euro seemed just a bit north of the GFS - maybe 50 miles - and CMC's 00z went south pulling it almost due east through VA and not curving NE until offshore, pounding the DC/Baltimore area with heavy rain but making it a quick hitter with overrunning portion mostly in NE. Of note CMC also shows the severe outbreak generating in Nebraska before going into Missouri/Arkansas over the next 6-12 hours on the 6th. CMC also warmer with closer to 80 on the 7th in the areas GFS has struggling to 70, the 8th is fairly chilly over the whole MA/NE with 60s and low 70s, while it rebounds into mainly 70s and even 80F in the southern MA on the 9th. This is a switch from the 12z CMC, which was similar to the GFS if just a little faster with it.

Now I know most summers are good for a cutoff or two from Memorial Day into mid June, or perhaps something stalls in August. Even hotter periods like July 1990 or August 2007 will have a rainy day with 60s breaking up the 90s, but this is the third event since the beginning of July like this. I can't imagine that its too windy an event - the lowest the LP gets on any model I saw was 998 when exiting stage right from Nova Scotia.
15 Feb 2017
Snow started here in northern New Hampshire just before 7AM and quickly became heavy. 10-14" or 12-18" expected, depending on the forecaster.

This should boost us easily into the top 5 all time Februaries (since 1959 anyway) here.
5 May 2016
How about some love for Autumn? The summer discussion is active and folks are posting in the winter 2016-17 forum. Let's not forget about September-November!

The last time we transitioned quickly from a strong Nino to a Nina was in the fall of 1998. Living in Maryland at the time, a relatively normal (within a degree or so) summer 1998 was followed by a warm September, a mild October, and a normal November (before a warm December). Calendar 1998 was one of three years with every month's average 40F or above at BWI...the other years being 1949 and 1932.

The outstanding detail of the fall of 1998 was the developing dryness. The first several months of 1998 were a bit on the wet side. Precip started to tail off in July, and the fall months were very dry. Only 3.46" of rain fell from 9/1 to 11/30, the driest fall since 1930 which was the driest year on record when only half the normal rainfall was recorded for the year. Drought was developing, with only January 1999 above normal all the way until September, when Hurricane Floyd and a few other systems ended the drought.

Prior to that, in September 1983 coming off another strong Nino, it was the 4th consecutive month of dryness, but October and November were wet enough to bring autumn precip to normal, while temperatures were maybe a degree above normal for all three months (a warm start in September with some 90s was evened out by a cool spell the last 4-5 days).

In New Hampshire, Fall 1998's temps were similar to the experience at BWI. North Conway temps were a degree or so above normal in September and October while normal in November. But precip was well above normal in October, and although there were a couple very dry months mixed in, both 1998 and 1999 annual precip were above normal.
In NH in 1983, a warm September was followed by a normal Oct-Nov. For precip it started dry but October was a little closer to normal, and November was a soaker. Snow did fall in both November 1983 and 1998, but a bit below the average (November snowfall is usually hit or miss here).

Will the autumn of 2016 be different this year than 2015? Last year, hints of leaf change started to show in August but were put on hold by a very warm September. In fact, leaves peaked about a week later (around Oct. 10) than they did in 2014. October was near normal overall with a mid month cold snap (and half inch of snow) evened out by a couple warm periods, while November was again warm.

Not having central AC and not being a fan of hot weather to begin with, I will be looking forward to the Fall!
26 Dec 2014
OK starting a thread for the first time because its very slow and everyone else is still sleeping off the holiday, I guess...maybe I will have better luck.

Several models have been showing this storm for most runs since late on the 24th. This is a separate entity than the Dec 31-Jan 2 thread which several models now show going offshore to the south in the Virginia Beach area....or not really organizing anything at all.

The 6z 12/26 GFS is on the faster side, with wintry precip breaking out along the Mason-Dixon and in WV ahead of a low centered over SW Kentucky early on 1/3, before kicking out a low off the Jersey shore 12 hours later (snow changes to rain for most of everyone east of I-81 and south of I-84), then heading NE to give New England a light/moderate snow event and a mix for NYC.

Here is Hour 204 GFS:
Attached File  GFS_Hour_204.png ( 142.7K ) Number of downloads: 1303

What does the 6z PGFS do? It takes this storm to the lakes, moving the low on a track from central Missouri to Detroit and then skirting the Canadian border in New England. This means iniital light snow or frozen precip for anyone north of Baltimore/west of I-95 which then goes over to rain within 12 hours. No need to post an image; we just lived this a few days ago.

CMC is painting the most interesting picture right now. First of all, its slower in developing and second, features a retreating 1040 MB high over New England setting up a CAD situation. At 6z on 1/4, heavy snow is breaking out west of 95 and in MD in PA out ahead of a low in Kentucky. 6 hours later it looks like it is transferring to a low south of NYC, which means a frozen mess for west of I-95 to I-81 and snow up into southern New England away from the coast and up my way. Check out this fun map:

Hour 228 CMC:
Attached File  CMC_Hour_228.png ( 151.37K ) Number of downloads: 1326

The storm then chugs to the Maine coast giving New England a nice snow dump away from the coast. Smiles abound for snow lovers from DC to New England west of I-95:
Attached File  CMC_Total_Snow.png ( 132.38K ) Number of downloads: 1326

Euro? I don't have premium access but 0z looks similar to PGFS just a tad slower, sending a low from the Oklahoma Panhandle at midnight on 1/3 to north of Detroit 24 hours later and surely giving yet another soaker to the entire east coast, even the mountains of New England. The Euro depicts the New Year's shot of cold air being very transient and not really reloading to the west while setting up quite a SE ridge.

So let's kick off the roller coaster from torch to no storm to slider to BECS! laugh.gif
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