Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Profile
Personal Photo
Rating
 
Options
Options
Personal Statement
WeatherMonger doesn't have a personal statement currently.
Personal Info
WeatherMonger
Rank: F5 Superstorm
42 years old
Male
Springfield, IL
Born Aug-17-1974
Interests
No Information
Statistics
Joined: 26-January 10
Profile Views: 30,207*
Local Time: Jan 23 2017, 08:44 AM
20,455 posts (8 per day)
Contact Information
AIM No Information
Yahoo No Information
ICQ No Information
MSN No Information
Contact Private
* Profile views updated each hour

WeatherMonger

Member

***


Topics
Posts
Comments
Friends
My Content
5 Jan 2017
This is for the forthcoming winter event no one wants to create a thread for laugh.gif

Day 6

Attached Image


Day 7

Attached Image




CPC with large freezing rain area spanning several days

Attached Image
21 Dec 2016
SPC has delineated an area in Southern Plains for Christmas day with mention of a few tornados possible unfortunately.

Will add days/regions as warranted

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model consensus continues to improve regarding a deep cyclone and
intense midlevel speed maximum forecast to emerge over the Central
States on Day-5/Sunday, when deepening surface low pressure is
expected to move across portions of the Central and Northern Great
Plains. Strong low-level southerlies within the northward-building
warm sector will transport partially modified Gulf moisture into the
broader zone of ascent accompanying the larger-scale cyclone. The
most-likely area of overlapping surface-based buoyancy -- albeit
muted by cloud coverage -- and deeper ascent should be focused
across portions of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In this region,
thunderstorms accompanied by primarily a damaging-wind risk, and
perhaps some tornado risk, could occur, given the strong vertical
shear and at least some (though minimal) buoyancy.

..Cohen.. 12/21/2016
18 Nov 2016
Marginal Risk for a broad area today. Figured I would give those that get a thunderstorm somewhere to talk.

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ARKLATEX TO SRN LM REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERN SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...STEADILY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING FROM
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND OVER PAC COAST
STATES ATTM. STG TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM ERN SD AND ERN NEB SWWD OVER CENTRAL KS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA AND NEARLY-CLOSED 500-MB CIRCULATION
OVER ERN NEB. LATTER FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO CLOSED LOW CENTERED
INVOF DLH BY 00Z...WITH TROUGH SWD ACROSS IA...MO...AR...TO LOWER
SABINE RIVER. LOW WILL DEVOLVE BACK TO OPEN-WAVE STRUCTURE DURING
LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...REACHING NRN LS. SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHOULD
ASSUME NEGATIVE TILT AS BASAL 500-MB VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA
STRENGTHEN AND OUTPACE NRN PART OF TROUGH FROM MO TO LOWER OH
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...LARGE NERN-PAC CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD BUT
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH PERIOD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED PRIMARY LOW OVER CENTRAL IA...WITH COLD
FRONT OVER WRN MO...SERN OK...N-CENTRAL TX...AND LOWER PECOS VALLEY/
BIG BEND REGION. BY 00Z...WITH SFC LOW OCCLUDED NEAR WI/MI LINE...
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LOWER MI...INDIANA...WRN TN...NWRN LA...AND
MIDDLE TX COAST. BY 12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SRN ONT
ACROSS WRN PA...SWRN VA...NRN GA...AND N-CENTRAL GULF.

...ARKLATEX TO SRN LM...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP ON EITHER
SIDE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE OUTRUNNING
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING.
WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS MAY OCCUR FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.

BROADER SCENARIO FEATURES CLASSICAL COOL-SEASON TRADE-OFF OF
STRONGER LARGE-SCALE LIFT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEP-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NORTH...MORE ROBUST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTH BUT
SHALLOWER FRONTAL SLOPE. DISTINGUISHING CHARACTERISTIC HERE IS LESS
MOISTURE THAN THOSE SYSTEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SVR EVENTS...
THANKS TO SUBSTANTIALLY ANTICYCLONIC ANTECEDENT TRAJECTORIES THAT
HAVE KEPT MOST RETURN-FLOW FETCHES NONEXISTENT TO SHORT ACROSS GULF.

STILL...RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS...BECOMING MORE NARROW WITH NWD
EXTENT...WILL PRECEDE COLD FRONT AT LEAST AS FAR N AS PORTIONS OF
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION INTO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 60S F S OF OZARKS TO LOWER/MID 50S OVER IL.
GIVEN STG COMPONENT OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO
FRONT...AND PREDOMINANCE OF VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT...MAIN STORM MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED
STRONGER ELEMENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 21Z MLCAPE...IN IMMEDIATE
PREFRONTAL SECTOR...RANGING FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NRN LA TO
LESS THAN 400 J/KG OVER NERN IL...WHILE EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES
INCREASE FROM AROUND 30 KT OVER NRN LA TO 50 KT IN NRN IL.
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN SOONER OVER NRN AREAS DUE TO LIMITED
TIME/SPACE WINDOW WITH FASTER STORM MOTIONS AND NARROWER ZONE OF
INSTABILITY THAT IS MORE MRGL.

...TX COASTAL PLAIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM MIDDAY ONWARD BOTH NEAR
AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...INCLUDING ANY PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP DURING FAVORED AFTN PERIOD.
FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE UNDERCUT RATHER QUICKLY BY ASSOCIATED
DENSITY CURRENT...WITH MINIMAL TO NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR SVR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN AN HOUR OR MORE OF FRONTAL
TRANSLATION TIME INTO WARM SECTOR WILL POSE RISK OF ISOLATED STG-SVR
GUSTS...GIVEN STRONGLY HEATED/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...AND DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F SUPPORTING MLCAPE IN 2000-2500 J/KG
RANGE. FROPA AND RELATED CAA WILL DECREASE ANY SVR THREAT ABRUPTLY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/18/2016
2 Nov 2016
Slight risk for winds issued for north central/central IL.

This is a huge event compared to the last 4 months laugh.gif Created a thread just in case someone gets something to talk about ie. gust over 20, graupel, maybe a brief downpour with sun shining etc....

Attached Image
9 Jul 2016
SPC has the next 3 days delineated in the northern Plains/MW and mentions of the GL and possibly further south beyond.

Day 1

Attached Image


Day 2

Attached Image


Day3

Attached Image
Last Visitors


14 Jan 2017 - 11:53


13 Jan 2017 - 18:42


13 Jan 2017 - 15:24


11 Jan 2017 - 21:36


10 Jan 2017 - 18:47

Comments
Other users have left no comments for WeatherMonger.

Friends
There are no friends to display.
RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd January 2017 - 09:44 AM