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> Jan 6-7 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 days] Forecasts
snow wonder
post Dec 26 2011, 05:59 PM
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what the heck [attachment=149066:gfs_name...precip_s.gif]
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The Day After To...
post Dec 26 2011, 06:09 PM
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That's possible Nor', but I heard a storm on the 7th mentioned before. So it may be the same, or it may not be the same. Either way, it's something to track.


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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jdrenken
post Dec 26 2011, 06:17 PM
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In this progressive pattern, there is a good chance that a storm will come thru during this timeframe separate of the earlier thread. The specifics is something that we don't know though.


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QUOTE
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 26 2011, 08:23 PM
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Even GFS fantasy runs are showing huge rainstorms for I95.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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DiehardFF
post Dec 26 2011, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 26 2011, 08:23 PM) *
Even GFS fantasy runs are showing huge rainstorms for I95.


That shows rain?


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PA FF/EMT
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Fire/Rescue
post Dec 26 2011, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 26 2011, 08:23 PM) *
Even GFS fantasy runs are showing huge rainstorms for I95.

Oh wow I guess I was looking at the "Freezing Line" wrong with regards to this long range fantasy storm, as it appeared to me the 95 corridor for Baltimore/DC was in the SNOW zone?
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 26 2011, 08:31 PM
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For coastal area's it is..


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 26 2011, 08:33 PM
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QUOTE(DiehardFF @ Dec 26 2011, 08:29 PM) *
That shows rain?


thats 12 hour accumulated precip, the 850 line only crashes after the storm is gone for the coast and also the surface temps look yucky.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 26 2011, 08:34 PM
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Take a look at the image before that


Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Dec 26 2011, 08:36 PM
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Nice weenie map rolleyes.gif



Attached Image


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current

2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

My PWS
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jdrenken
post Dec 26 2011, 08:37 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Dec 26 2011, 07:31 PM) *
Oh wow I guess I was looking at the "Freezing Line" wrong with regards to this long range fantasy storm, as it appeared to me the 95 corridor for Baltimore/DC was in the SNOW zone?


Here is a look at the snow depth...



and "best" snowfall around BWI.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 26 2011, 08:38 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Dec 26 2011, 08:36 PM) *
Nice weenie map rolleyes.gif

Attached Image


Yes definitely a fantasy bomb for the interior, no doubt.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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The Day After To...
post Dec 26 2011, 08:39 PM
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There is PLENTY of time for this to shift east, or west.


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 26 2011, 08:40 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Dec 26 2011, 08:39 PM) *
There is PLENTY of time for this to shift east, or west.


or completely dissapear.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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sw03181
post Dec 26 2011, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Dec 26 2011, 08:36 PM) *
Nice weenie map rolleyes.gif

Attached Image


I'm moving to Herkimer for January tongue.gif


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40 /- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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The Day After To...
post Dec 26 2011, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 26 2011, 08:40 PM) *
or completely dissapear.

Yes, that too. But remember, this is GFS long range.


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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Removed_Member_Snowrider_*
post Dec 26 2011, 09:01 PM
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I'll take west for 1000 Alex!


Snowrider.
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WEATHERFAN100
post Dec 26 2011, 09:03 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Dec 26 2011, 08:50 PM) *
Yes, that too. But remember, this is GFS long range.

That and models starting to pick up a more "favorable" pattern for wintry weather...going to be interesting during this time period to track. Just hoping its still on models by next week.


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-James
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The Day After To...
post Dec 26 2011, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Dec 26 2011, 09:03 PM) *
That and models starting to pick up a more "favorable" pattern for wintry weather...going to be interesting during this time period to track. Just hoping its still on models by next week.

Well, I'm on Christmas break. Let's have some fun trackin' storms! 0z GS coming up. Let's hope it has a storm around this time frame.


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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NorEaster07
post Dec 26 2011, 10:57 PM
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Euro ensembles have a bomb in this time frame. 978mb low near benchmark.

Source: Pro
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