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> Oct 9 - ? MidAtl/NE Cool Spell, Last Minute Forecasts & OBS
WeatherDudeNYC
post Sep 25 2010, 07:13 PM
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The GFS has kept hinting at a big trough coming down from Canada and bringing us really cold weather

30's for lows in NYC blink.gif

Here are the last few runs

06z/12z/and 18z runs for oct 10
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WEATHERFREAK
post Sep 25 2010, 09:04 PM
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Thing is for something of this magnitude, Florida would get much cooler then that. Ain't no way we'll swelter in the 70's(at night). wink.gif


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Removed_Member_Snowstorms_*
post Sep 25 2010, 09:09 PM
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We could see another October 1974 or 1988 if this cold predicted by the models continues for a while.

I seriously dont think it will get that cold, unless the NAO and the AO were fairly negative.
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 25 2010, 09:21 PM
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QUOTE(Snowstorms @ Sep 25 2010, 10:09 PM) *
We could see another October 1974 or 1988 if this cold predicted by the models continues for a while.

I seriously dont think it will get that cold, unless the NAO and the AO were fairly negative.

It does look like the NAO/AO go towards neutral/slightly negative during this time frame, but the PNA isn't as positive as it will be for the October 2-4 cool spell. We'll see what happens, I do think there could be a cool down in this time frame, but at this time I agree, I doubt it would be this cold.
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Niyologist
post Sep 25 2010, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherDudeNYC @ Sep 25 2010, 08:13 PM) *
The GFS has kept hinting at a big trough coming down from Canada and bringing us really cold weather

30's for lows in NYC blink.gif

Here are the last few runs

06z/12z/and 18z runs for oct 10


The GFS has been showing this since Thursday! tongue.gif
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Niyologist
post Sep 25 2010, 11:49 PM
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The 0Z GFS is still not letting go of the Massive Cool Down Scenario:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_l_loop.shtml

blink.gif
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NorEaster07
post Sep 26 2010, 06:37 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 26 2010, 12:49 AM) *
The 0Z GFS is still not letting go of the Massive Cool Down Scenario:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...en_l_loop.shtml

blink.gif


If you started educating people with posts like this you wouldn't get people like me whining asking all kinds of questions. I see the storm, I see the low pressures, the high pressures, the wind directions (i think) but I dont see what your seeing regarding "not letting go of the cool down senario"..
Are you looking at the dips outlines in red in that loop??
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TheMaineMan
post Sep 26 2010, 08:18 AM
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As meaningless as it is... my 15 day forecast currently shows a low of 30 degrees for October 4, with a high near 60 degrees.

Would be cool for the time of year, but not record-breaking by any means.


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2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 26 2010, 09:18 AM
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The GFS still has something there by the end of its 00z and 06z runs. As this is still well in the long range, it would be pointless to already start saying "it's going to be very, very cold", "it's going to snow", "there won't be a cool down", and all of that stuff. What we need to focus on is the pattern, with a neutral-negative NAO/AO possible, and the fact that there is a model (in this case, the GFS) showing a cool down for this time frame.


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Niyologist
post Sep 26 2010, 11:18 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 26 2010, 07:37 AM) *
If you started educating people with posts like this you wouldn't get people like me whining asking all kinds of questions. I see the storm, I see the low pressures, the high pressures, the wind directions (i think) but I dont see what your seeing regarding "not letting go of the cool down senario"..
Are you looking at the dips outlines in red in that loop??


From Hour 180 and beyond is the cool down is shown, but we need to get into range first (Hour 180 and below) to be very concerned about that cool down.

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Sep 26 2010, 11:18 AM
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east coast storm
post Sep 26 2010, 11:31 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 26 2010, 12:18 PM) *
From Hour 180 and beyond is the cool down is shown, but we need to get into range first (Hour 180 and below) to be very concerned about that cool down.

I know this is off topic but that cool down is what could keep Nicole and Oddo offshore
the EC.
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Niyologist
post Sep 26 2010, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Sep 26 2010, 12:31 PM) *
I know this is off topic but that cool down is what could keep Nicole and Oddo offshore
the EC.


Yes, the trough will keep Nicole off shore at this rate. This means we'll have a long lasting cool down as well considering that Moderate La Ninas provide much below average temperatures over the NE and MD-ATL.
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 26 2010, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 26 2010, 12:36 PM) *
Yes, the trough will keep Nicole off shore at this rate. This means we'll have a long lasting cool down as well considering that Moderate La Ninas provide much below average temperatures over the NE and MD-ATL.

Do you remember what happened in October 2007, a moderate La Nina fall? huh.gif
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Niyologist
post Sep 26 2010, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 26 2010, 12:39 PM) *
Do you remember what happened in October 2007, a moderate La Nina fall? huh.gif


Most Moderate La Ninas give a colder than average October.
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 26 2010, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(Niyologist @ Sep 26 2010, 12:46 PM) *
Most Moderate La Ninas give a colder than average October.

The moderate/strong La nina analogs I found for October would argue otherwise:

Attached Image

CPC, which usually tends to go by typical ENSO patterns, also has a warmer than average October.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Sep 26 2010, 12:04 PM
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Niyologist
post Sep 27 2010, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 26 2010, 01:03 PM) *
The moderate/strong La nina analogs I found for October would argue otherwise:

Attached Image

CPC, which usually tends to go by typical ENSO patterns, also has a warmer than average October.


That's strange! Someone on the Long Range Winter Outlook had shown a different map of what a Moderate La Nina does in October. huh.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Sep 27 2010, 12:00 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 26 2010, 12:39 PM) *
Do you remember what happened in October 2007, a moderate La Nina fall? huh.gif

Cant remember what took place in October of 2007...what?
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 27 2010, 03:41 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Sep 27 2010, 01:00 PM) *
Cant remember what took place in October of 2007...what?

Record heat spell... I reached the lower-mid 90s three times in early October, the average highs are in the upper 60s. During the mid month, with average highs in the mid 60s, I had almost a week-long stretch of mid-upper 70s and 80s. That's unusually warm for October.
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Fire/Rescue
post Sep 27 2010, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 27 2010, 04:41 PM) *
Record heat spell... I reached the lower-mid 90s three times in early October, the average highs are in the upper 60s. During the mid month, with average highs in the mid 60s, I had almost a week-long stretch of mid-upper 70s and 80s. That's unusually warm for October.

Oh gotcha, yea that is like way abnormal...lets hope we do not have yet another heat wave to welcome in October. We have had our fare share of Summer this year (and then some) so bring on Autumn smile.gif
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fisherboy
post Sep 27 2010, 04:30 PM
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I hope with the cool down we get a nic frost. Well with the first frost the first snowfall is less than 90 days away biggrin.gif


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