Long Range Fall 2012 Outlooks, Forecast and Trends Options

[NYCSuburbs]

November temp departures for the U.S. 2012 left. 2011 Right. (take note of the legend change)

[attachment=177546:temps159.jpg]

Literally the polar opposite from last year... flip the Nov 2011 map horizontally, the flipped Nov 2011 and this November actually aren't a bad match

[NorEaster07]

This pretty much sums up the last 5 weeks here.

These are images I took in the last few weeks alone.

 CT.jpg ( 244.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


October 29 - Hurricane Sandy
November 6 - Wind Chill Value in the teens
November 7 - Winter Nor'Easter with record snowstorm
November 23 - Intense Fog
November 27 - Light Snow
December 1 - Ice Advisories
December 2 - Intense Fog
December 3 - Very Warm Temps into the upper 50s, Mowing Lawn

[NorEaster07]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EST MON DEC 3 2012

...SIXTH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD AT TRENTON...

NOVEMBER, 2012 TIED NOVEMBER, 1986 FOR THE SIXTH COLDEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 41.5 DEGREES. THE COLDEST ON
RECORD OCCURRED IN 1995, WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 40.0
DEGREES.

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1893.

$$

THE ELEVEN COLDEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD AT TRENTON DATING BACK TO 1893:

RANK TEMPERATURE YEAR
(DEGREES F)

1 40.0 1995
2 40.2 1996
3 40.6 1917
4 40.9 1976
5 41.3 1936
6 41.5 1986
6 41.5 2012
8 41.6 1933
9 42.0 1901
9 42.0 1951
9 42.0 1984

[SnowMan11]

0z GFS big time -west based NAO

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfswestnao.gif

[grace]

0z GFS big time -west based NAO

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfswestnao.gif

That's sweet but I can't really pay attention to it with all the flipping in teleconnection forecast.

But in reality a strong storm like 0z was showing could be responsible for that.

[sw03181]

0z GFS big time -west based NAO

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfswestnao.gif

Very much so indeed.

Persistent cold air gets put in place by 12/12. Stay tuned to see if it holds true.

[NorEaster07]

November numbers are out...

 temps161.jpg ( 416.06K ) Number of downloads: 2


This is scary. Entire country below normal precip. Northeast almost record driest. (some divisional locations were like Hartford,CT)

 temps162.jpg ( 84.19K ) Number of downloads: 0

[NYCSuburbs]

While I'm not particularly biased in either direction in the whole climate change debate, I have an issue with the latest article by Jeff Masters on November. The short article states November was a very warm month and is set to make 2012 the warmest year on record. I don't dispute the latter point, and for the western US it was a warm month, but other than barely noting North Carolina had a top cold 10 November, he makes absolutely no mention of the colder than average conditions in the East which were a significant anomaly relative to previous Novembers over the last decade; neither does he mention that November was the first month to feature widespread colder than average temperatures in the East since early 2011, breaking an unprecedented stretch of consecutive warmer than average months. Although the eastern cooler than average temperatures was nothing historic, it would have been fair to mention the cold departures in the East as well in addition to the warmth in the central-western US.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Dec 10 2012, 01:38 AM

[grace]

While I'm not particularly biased in either direction in the whole climate change debate, I have an issue with the latest article by Jeff Masters on November. The short article states November was a very warm month and is set to make 2012 the warmest year on record. I don't dispute the latter point, and for the western US it was a warm month, but other than barely noting North Carolina had a top cold 10 November, he makes absolutely no mention of the colder than average conditions in the East which were a significant anomaly relative to previous Novembers over the last decade; neither does he mention that November was the first month to feature widespread colder than average temperatures in the East since early 2011, breaking an unprecedented stretch of consecutive warmer than average months. Although the eastern cooler than average temperatures was nothing historic, it would have been fair to mention the cold departures in the East as well in addition to the warmth in the central-western US.

I'm very much open to both the naturalists & AGW arguments & even the mixture of both; however, some of the AGW advocates are having a hayday with the warm pattern the U.S. has been in while ignoring the cold in other places. JB on the otherhand never sees the warm. In reality I get more than a little bent out of shape by boths sides cherry picking data.

[conifer1]

I'm very much open to both the naturalists & AGW arguments & even the mixture of both; however, some of the AGW advocates are having a hayday with the warm pattern the U.S. has been in while ignoring the cold in other places. JB on the otherhand never sees the warm. In reality I get more than a little bent out of shape by boths sides cherry picking data.

So, we are saying that those on either side should really operate from more of a deontological approach putting aside their personal agendas for the public good? Nice thought but the way I approach it is that after they cherry pick, we have to do an additional cherry pick to obtain the data that we deem important.