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snowlover2
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snowlover2

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31 May 2018
This is for the new threat starting in the northern plains today.

Day 1
Attached Image



QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Valid 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe thunderstorms, mainly capable of wind and hail,
are possible from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and
Tennessee Valleys, as well as the northern High Plains and northern
Rockies.

...Ozarks into OH Valley...
Multiple clusters of severe storms are expected to affect this
region today, with the first currently producing damaging winds over
southeast IL. These storms are expected to track eastward across
southern IN and northern KY through much of the day. Ref MCD #584
and WW #136 for more information.

In the wake of the initial band of storms, visible satellite imagery
shows rapid clearing across southern MO. This will result in strong
heating, steepening low-level lapse rates, and destabilization
across this region by early afternoon. 12z models are consistent in
re-development of intense storms over this area as a weak shortwave
trough moves into the region from KS. The initial storms will
potentially be supercellular with the risk of very large hail and a
tornado or two. Storms should slowly organize and grow upscale as
outflows merge, with an eventual bowing complex producing damaging
winds expected to move across the ENH area through the evening.

...Northern Great Basin into Northern Rockies...
An active thunderstorm day is expected today from northeast NV and
eastern ID into much of MT. A large upper trough is moving across
CA, with large scale lift and strong winds aloft spreading across
the risk area. Strong heating is occurring this morning, with
dewpoints in the 50s over most of this region. Present indications
are that scattered fast-moving cells will form over the higher
terrain throughout this region, and along a cold front moving into
NV/ID. Multiple clusters of strong/severe storms may persist
through the afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the main threats.

..Hart/Leitman.. 05/31/2018
16 Feb 2018
Start date is yesterday due to the heavy rain/flooding that occurred and there appears to be several more chances of heavy rain/flooding over the next 10 days if not longer.

WPC 7 day QPF
Attached Image


ILN mentions flooding potential.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
306 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be the least active weather day in the extended as high
pressure traverses the Ohio Valley. Under sunshine, highs will
moderate into the 40s to lower 50s.

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for next
week. Thus, the threat for additional flooding will continue. The
upper level flow pattern becomes amplified as a strong subtropical
ridge builds off the southeast U.S. coast while large scale mid
level troughing develops across western Canada/western U.S. This
setup will transport rounds of moisture northeast across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. The first round of precipitation is expected
Sunday night into Monday as a low level/moist jet in association
with a warm front pushes northeast across the area. In the warm
sector, highs will warm into the 60s most locations on Monday. For
Monday night into Wednesday night, a very slow moving frontal
boundary will be the focus for more rounds of precipitation. It will
be unseasonably warm on Tuesday with some cooler air slowly moving
back in by Wednesday. Tuesday temperatures will vary with higher
chances of rain for the northwest with the least in the southeast.
This will allow highs to range from the mid 60s northwest to the mid
70s southeast. Showers and a slow frontal passage will cool
temperatures back down on Wednesday.

By weeks end, there could be a respite in the probability for
precipitation by Thursday as the front tries to move east/southeast
of the region. However, activity will likely ramp up again by Friday
and into next weekend as s/wv energy begins to affect the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley once again.
30 Dec 2017
You pick a city for each day (12z - 12z), in which you will have a 25 mile radius around that city to gain reports. Picks need to be submitted by 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, regardless of whether or not Daylight Savings Time is in effect. If severe weather is occuring between the time when SPC Day One Reports start (12z) and 11:00 a.m., you can NOT pick a city within a few miles of those severe storms.

You are not required to submit a guess for every day, although obviously your chances of winning will increase with each day you submit a guess for. To that end, if you are going to be away from the forum for an extended period of time (vacation, etc.), you may submit guesses in advance for all of the days you will be away from the forum for.

Scoring is as follows:

1 point for every normal hail/wind report within 25 miles of your city.
2 points for every significant hail/wind report (2"+ hail & 75+ mph wind) within 25 miles of your city.
5 points for every tornado report within 25 miles of your city.

Tornado - 5
Significant Hail/Wind - 2
Normal Hail/Wind - 1

The plan is for there to once again be two rounds, with the first lasting from January 1 - June 30, and the second lasting from July 1 - December 31.

Good Luck to everyone!
28 Dec 2017
This is for the first wave moving into IL now. This is the weaker of the 2 over the next couple of days.
Attached File  centgrtlakes_loop.gif ( 736.3K ) Number of downloads: 163
26 Dec 2017
So this thread is for the potential late weekend storm that only the GFS shows right now.

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 188.75K ) Number of downloads: 217

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png ( 192.99K ) Number of downloads: 202

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png ( 201.07K ) Number of downloads: 205
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