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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:14 AM


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6z GFS is just a tick slower and not quite so close to OBX before it pushes away.

Close call, no landfall - still the consensus forecast. The coast will take a beating but inland affects seem to be very limited and almost non existent for the 40N gang

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2248062 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:36 PM


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AFDMHX (Obx region)



QUOTE
Monday through Friday...Hurricane Maria is currently forecast
to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual
track will be determined by several factors including the
strength of the upper ridge and remnant circulation of Jose. It
is still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC,
which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the
coast it gets. Models continue to slow Maria down, keeping it
off the SE coast through Thursday. The 12z GFS is slightly
further westward than previous runs and the ECMWF. Regardless
of the exact track, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are
likely this weekend into next week, as large long period
southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds, minor coastal
flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also possible,
with the greatest threat along the Outer Banks.
Slight
chance/low chance rain showers, mainly along the coast, possible
through Wed. The next frontal system will approach the area
late week, as Maria pushes further ENE offshore
. Temps through
the period, near to slightly above normal with highs in the 80s
and lows in the mid 60s/low 70s.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247985 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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She's moving into some really stout shear on the order of 25-40, and would really take a hit. By the time it tries to come north, it will be little more than Jose was, comparative to what it once was.

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247984 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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...
QUOTE
HURRICANE MARIA...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: REFERENCE NHC PRODUCTS

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWEST AND FARTHEST EAST WHILE THE
00Z UKMET/CMC CONTINUE TO BE THE FASTEST COMPARED TO THE 15Z NHC
ADVISORY. A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdhmd
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247974 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:57 PM


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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247973 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:54 PM


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And, finally, 12z NAV which is ever so slightly west near OBX but also quickly punts Maria out into the Atl.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247971 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:52 PM


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JMA does, to an extent, but quickly shunts the storm east once it hits 40N

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247970 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:51 PM


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Euro not buying the westward shift idea.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...2212&fh=168
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247969 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:38 PM


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I hate being in the bullseye this far out. mad.gif

Attached Image


(just practicing - smile.gif )
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247892 · Replies: · Views: 587

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:37 PM


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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 21 2017, 12:51 PM) *
Trof vorticity tracking through the Great Lakes extending southward over the Tennessee valley, may sharpen and go negatively tilted as the trof base approaches the east coast around South Carolina and thus, spawns surface low just off the coast.
Should be a nice warm up for the colder months.

GFS been flirting with this "Miller B like" scenario for a while. Of course, my first thought was "oh boy, if the gang were to see this 3-4 mos from now". rolleyes.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247891 · Replies: · Views: 587

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 01:20 PM


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QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 21 2017, 02:09 PM) *
See I'm not sure that I want the mid/long range GFS in my camp tongue.gif

I understand, but we're really not talking LR anymore - now that we're within 126hrs (medium range, just over 5 days. Long Range is 7+ days)

Even with GFS in same camp, Euro/UKIE combo is hard to bet against.

Especially since CMC is the lone model to: 1) quash Jose entirely, and 2) give so much emphasis to the ULL in the s/e US.


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  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247860 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 12:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 21 2017, 01:15 PM) *
Yep, thanks!!
Getting to quite the outlier (very typical for CMC) with the 12z GFS and UKIE leading OTS solutions.
Attached Image


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247854 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 06:54 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 21 2017, 07:46 AM) *
This sucks. Can't be certain without radar, but that looks like an awful band spiraling into PR. sad.gif

[attachment=331161:Screensh...1_074721.jpg]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

QUOTE
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210935
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...As of 5 am, Hurricane Maria was located around 70
miles north of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. The
hurricane is expected to continue to move further away from Puerto
Rico and USVI today, with the strongest winds gradually
diminishing across the region later this morning. However, breezy
southerly conditions will continue into at least this evening,
and likely continue across the higher elevations through the day
on Friday.

The persistent heavy rainbands that have been lashing the western
side of PR overnight are expected to also lift north and west of
the island later this morning. While some areas may see a break in
precip, especially this morning, the concern for the remainder of
the day, and through the next few days, will be for more heavy
rainfall. Deep tropical moisture remains across the region, which
in combination with the southerly flow will lead to enhanced
rainfall along the southern slopes of PR, and across the south
side of the St Thomas/St John. Coverage and rainfall amounts are
likely to be higher during the afternoon/evening as less cloud
cover promotes some diurnal enhancement.

Any additional rainfall will aggravate the ongoing record
flooding along most of the rivers . While breaks in the rain may
allow for a brief respite, expect additional rapid rises with any
rainfall along with mudslides. Currently the Flash Flood Watch
continues through Friday afternoon, but may need to be extended if
the flow pattern holds through the weekend
.

The Atlantic ridge begins to rebuild into mid next week, allowing
for a re-establishment of easterly trades. Models are in
agreement in showing a SAL layer arriving by Wednesday, which
should lead to much lower shower activity, potentially isolated at
best.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...mp;issuedby=sju
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247815 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:57 AM


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Quick look at 00z tracking

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Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:50 AM


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sad.gif sad.gif

QUOTE
"Once we're able to go outside, we're going to find our island destroyed," warned Abner Gomez, Puerto Rico's emergency management director. "The information we have received is not encouraging. It's a system that has destroyed everything in its path."
As people waited in shelters or took cover inside stairwells, bathrooms and closets, Maria brought down cell towers and power lines, snapped trees, tore off roofs and unloaded at least 20 inches (50 centimeters) of rain.
Widespread flooding was reported, with dozens of cars half-submerged in some neighborhoods and many streets turned into rivers. People calling local radio stations reported that doors were being torn off their hinges and a water tank flew away.
Felix Delgado, mayor of the northern coastal city of Catano, told The Associated Press that 80 percent of the 454 homes in a neighborhood known as Juana Matos were destroyed. The fishing community near San Juan Bay was hit with a storm surge of more than 4 feet (1.2 meters), he said.
"Months and months and months and months are going to pass before we can recover from this," he said.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstorie...ocid=spartanntp
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247806 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:24 AM


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Nope, not NS, NF is anything I guess.

Bottom line is with most models showing less chance of US impact, and most of the island cleared by now, this thread will see far less action unless the models make a big reversal of the synoptic set up (unlikely)
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247804 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:20 AM


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Nova Scotia maybe?

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Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:18 AM


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Yep - too slow even though released (northern jet energy) and it can't go negative on its own - Maria gets to run away, it seems


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Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:16 AM


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6z tries to release the northern stream energy over the CONUS, but it looks like that will be just a tad too late to catch Maria this run.

Maybe closer to the coast than 00z though.

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Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 05:13 AM


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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Sep 19 2017, 08:14 AM) *
This is my 1st time starting a thread, so please go easy on me blink.gif Seems everyone is busy with hurricanes, and for good reason. But seems like NE and OV will have a nice warm period for 9/23 to 9/28

Not bad for a first time. Only problem I see is that you've combined two different sub-regions in one discussion (OH VLY is more often linked with the Midwest, NE is supposed to be linked with MidAtl)

But since I have 4 days off starting today and the outlook is so conducive to enjoying all my "toys" (boat, golf cart, golf clubs, motorcycle, etc.) I won't complain cool.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247798 · Replies: · Views: 893

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 03:43 AM


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Still there out in GFS "fantasy land" range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247795 · Replies: · Views: 8,735

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 06:03 PM


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Future runs - would be good to focus upstream at the US west, southwest actually. It is there that the 18z went astray form previous output in that it released the anchoring southern stream energy, to allow it to join the northern stream. Previous run had the northern stream race out in front and leave that packet behind. That earlier solution allowed the northern stream to race ahead and catch Maria to some extent.

This run, they come together in tandem - the north and south stream. They, combined, are far too slow to influence Maria until only able to "kick" Maria.

Watch also the s/e vort I and Carlos (PV) have mentioned. It needs to become stronger in future runs because if it's the only attractant, it is not strong enough at present, to do much beyond becoming fodder for Maria.

I'm also watching Lee - does he continue to erode the AR to the point it can't come back strongly enough to become a player.

Still 4-6 days out, I believe - much can change, as well all know too well.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247761 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 05:31 PM


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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Sep 20 2017, 06:29 PM) *
I agree, hope next time I am on here is for a nice nor'easter with snow and not another hurricane. Done with hurricanes this year.

How do you feel about tropical storms though? laugh.gif

wink.gif
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247758 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

Undertakerson
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 05:23 PM


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Positive tilt inland trough would be kicker I believe

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