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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
Southern Missour...
post Nov 18 2017, 10:09 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 17 2017, 12:29 AM) *
Why are so many professional guys bothered by cold tweets & not by blowtorch tweets? I've never understood that. Post a cold or blocking map & they'll slap your hand....post a fantasy heat ridge & they'll like it. #twitterpoliceareannoying smile.gif


Yep
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Southern Missour...
post Nov 18 2017, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 17 2017, 02:41 AM) *
Well... lock it in... start stocking up on essentials because most of us will freeze to death on 12/22

Insane 1056mb high. No possible way this forecast could go wrong.




850mb temps running up to 21C (35F) colder than average


That would be awesome. Hope to see it.
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Southern Missour...
post Nov 18 2017, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Nov 17 2017, 09:31 AM) *
What's wrong with twitter? If used correctly, it's a quick, great way of disseminating information. Obviously there are people who are bad at explaining in few words, or just plain hype. But the 'in order, systematic timeline' style really suits sharing weather graphics, forecasts, and pictures.


Nothing at all wrong with Twitter imo, even more so with character limits being basically doubled or doubled of late (240 or 280 from 140 previously). With that, lots of room to get thoughts out for anyone capable or being concise. Great tool to provide links to forecasts and to share weather related information. I have a weather list customized with about 80 accounts and love it overall. Where else can one get that much constantly updating weather discussion/debate/information/real time event coverage etc so efficiently? I enjoy reading thoughts and discussions on analogs, trends in model data, live updates on current or future events, why something is or isn't likely to verify, potential solutions, debates on storm track possibilities, etc. Etc. For those who dont like it or hate it: why do you look at? Don't look and problem solved, right?

This post has been edited by Southern Missouri Snow Fan: Nov 18 2017, 10:48 AM
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grace
post Nov 18 2017, 11:44 AM
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I have no clue what winter will hold. Lots of reasons to like potential, but as always lots can go wrong. BUT one thing I'm very confident of is that this winter will be better than last...& I'm at least plumped about that.

If anyone tries to say this winter will be like last they better make an intelligent case.

1) Fire hose PAC jet not there like last year in NOV. It will extend at times but far different from last year. Last year was insane

2) SST's totally different both in N. PAC & ENSO regions, showing global patterns are not the same.

3) QBO is negative now. It's amazing for as much as the +QBO & Central based Nina combo was pointed out last winter again & again in NOV as a doom to winter....only cold bias folks beating the -QBO & East based Nina combo as holding out hope & potential for this winter.

4) Solar geometric conditions have been as quiet pre winter than it has been in several years. As far as sunspots we've had a blank sun several days & only a tiny sunspot or 2 for past 8-10 weeks.

5) If forcing holds that's causing SW ridging to persist it helps greatly to funnel cold air east of Rockies


Again, lots can go wrong but there's many reasons to be very confident of a better winter than last. That's really about all that can be really said at this point.
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jdrenken
post Nov 18 2017, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 10:44 AM) *
I have no clue what winter will hold. Lots of reasons to like potential, but as always lots can go wrong. BUT one thing I'm very confident of is that this winter will be better than last...& I'm at least plumped about that.

If anyone tries to say this winter will be like last they better make an intelligent case.

1) Fire hose PAC jet not there like last year in NOV. It will extend at times but far different from last year. Last year was insane

2) SST's totally different both in N. PAC & ENSO regions, showing global patterns are not the same.

3) QBO is negative now. It's amazing for as much as the +QBO & Central based Nina combo was pointed out last winter again & again in NOV as a doom to winter....only cold bias folks beating the -QBO & East based Nina combo as holding out hope & potential for this winter.

4) Solar geometric conditions have been as quiet pre winter than it has been in several years. As far as sunspots we've had a blank sun several days & only a tiny sunspot or 2 for past 8-10 weeks.

5) If forcing holds that's causing SW ridging to persist it helps greatly to funnel cold air east of Rockies
Again, lots can go wrong but there's many reasons to be very confident of a better winter than last. That's really about all that can be really said at this point.


Everything is looking good except #3 which was addressed by Anthony in this string.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/931345611361783809


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grace
post Nov 18 2017, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 18 2017, 11:10 AM) *
Everything is looking good except #3 which was addressed by Anthony in this string.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/931345611361783809



What he said doesn't eliminate #3. He sounded positive to me...that it's changing. It's a process that will be fine by the time it's needed. wink.gif

QUOTE
"You are referring to 1 depth of the QBO, likely at 30mb. I am describing the full layer between 100mb-10mb. It's mostly easterly, yes, except for lowest portion (100-50mb). That will eventually change going forward of course."
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jdrenken
post Nov 18 2017, 01:05 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 11:47 AM) *
What he said doesn't eliminate #3. He sounded positive to me...that it's changing. It's a process that will be fine by the time it's needed. wink.gif


The key is how everyone is taking one slice of the QBO and misinterpreting it. Timing of when we get a full blown -QBO will be key.

On another note, I'm enjoying his AAM/MT string too!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Nov 19 2017, 03:18 AM
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So sad this is at the end of the run... this system would be about to explode... 100+ knots swinging around the trough sad.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post Yesterday, 08:53 AM
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Recent RRWT signaling a potential cold shot that gives Rochester, MN a low temp of -25.3F on 12/19.


http://www.consonantchaos.com/


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KSpring1
post Yesterday, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Nov 18 2017, 11:44 AM) *
I have no clue what winter will hold. Lots of reasons to like potential, but as always lots can go wrong. BUT one thing I'm very confident of is that this winter will be better than last...& I'm at least plumped about that.


Again, lots can go wrong but there's many reasons to be very confident of a better winter than last. That's really about all that can be really said at this point.





: (

I'm already ready for winter to be over.

Shout out to the 2 or 3 people on this forum who like warm weather and struggle with the cold!! laugh.gif Hopefully they're still here ... ? unsure.gif


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*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:43 AM
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Finally starting to see less blues and more shades of red in the forecast. The HLB has been very impressive.

Looking like there's gonna be a big storm (possible severe) toward the end of the month per TR/EAR. Big trough in Mongolia and ridging over Japan right now. This suggests a storm system around November 27-29.



Last time we saw this kind of pattern was November 12 at 00z.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Nov 9 2017, 12:26 AM) *
The TR is showing east Asia under negative height anomalies for over a week.

Valid for 11/11, correlation is 7-8 days later:
Big trough in Mongolia with average to slightly above average heights to its east Around November 18, expect a western trough and perhaps a slight ridge in the east


Severe weather event on November 18 as a result.


12z GFS, 00z GFS, and 12z Euro all had a system come off the Pacific and impacting the Midwest somewhere around November 29. Chance for big snow in the Dakotas with the path it's taking. Other than that, it's worth noting that there's an EML surge into the Midwest on 00z GFS and 12z Euro which limits the amount of precip associated with the front. This can result in very warm temps and enhanced severe potential; the latter is dependent upon all the other factors are cooperating. Therefore, magnitude of severe potential will be determined later... but EAR helps identify when there's something to watch for (e.g., when there's a trough in Mongolia and a ridge over Korea or Japan).

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 12:51 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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