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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
OSNW3
post May 13 2017, 07:15 AM
Post #2921




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Recent RRWT Southern Hemisphere Winter temperature anomaly.


http://consonantchaos.com/


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OSNW3
post May 13 2017, 12:27 PM
Post #2922




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QUOTE(grace @ May 12 2017, 06:21 PM) *
What happened the other page?


I transferred control of the domain to Joseph Renken. I moved my RRWT stuff to http://www.consonantchaos.com/


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 13 2017, 07:29 PM
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I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z



Pattern valid on 15/00z



I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 13 2017, 07:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post May 13 2017, 09:49 PM
Post #2924




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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 13 2017, 12:27 PM) *
I transferred control of the domain to Joseph Renken. I moved my RRWT stuff to http://www.consonantchaos.com/



I loved that page! "If it ain't broke don't fix it."

This post has been edited by grace: May 14 2017, 02:45 PM
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Undertakerson
post May 14 2017, 06:31 AM
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Geez - I hope not

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 264.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
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OSNW3
post May 15 2017, 08:05 AM
Post #2926




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 13 2017, 07:29 PM) *
I have a feeling we may hear the phrase "the pattern will reload"/"pattern has reloaded"... in other words, similar pattern twice in relatively rapid succession... toward the end of the month or into very early June. Look at the placement of the features... especially the surface low pressures/warm fronts/cold fronts.

Pattern valid on 11/00z



Pattern valid on 15/00z



I've posted about this before... but again... add 17 days to those days, you get May 27 and May 31... give or take 2 days.

The evolution of these systems in the Bering, via my eyeball interpretation, suggests to me that the Plains won't be the primary severe weather area. I think it'll favor severe weather in the regions immediately east of the Plains; Dixie Alley, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley. I mentioned those areas as primary because of Climatology, but it might also include the Great Lakes, the northeast, and southeast.

Of course, just as Climatology favors severe weather in the OV/Mississippi Valley, it favors severe weather even more in the Plains. So I feel like I'm kinda going out on a limb with my interpretation by saying the Plains will not be the area of interest with these events. Pretty risky when it's dryline season out there.

Oklahoma hasn't had a high risk since 2012 or 2013, so after all I've said here, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally get one here. rolleyes.gif


With regard to recurring atmospheric modes, the ~31st has more grit than the ~27th. Signals are out of phase for the ~27th and weaker than the ~31st which shows some deep purples and phasing among RRWT members. We shall see.

RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/25-29 from 5/4
Attached File  170504150120.jpg ( 303.95K ) Number of downloads: 1


RRWT Lifted Index anomaly for 5/30-6/3 from 5/9
Attached File  170509150120__1_.jpg ( 298.01K ) Number of downloads: 2


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OSNW3
post May 19 2017, 09:47 AM
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In the Recurring Rossby Wave Train pattern correlation phase space, each point represents a possible instantaneous state of the system.



A solution of the governing equations is represented by a point traveling along a trajectory in the phase space. A single point in phase space determines the entire future trajectory, providing a composite of future weather and climate outcomes.



A quick blog entry: Strange Attractor

This post has been edited by OSNW3: May 19 2017, 09:47 AM


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2017, 01:39 PM
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Broad ridge/ring of fire signal coming up on BSR? I've personally never seen this signal before. Then again, I'm often not looking at BSR this time of year because I'm occupied by severe weather.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 22 2017, 01:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 8 (Last: 5/11/17)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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