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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 10:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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2000-2001 had -QBO, weak La Nina, and weakly positive PDO. It was a heavily frontloaded winter.

June 2000 QBO: -7.83
July 2000 QBO: -13.13

June 2017 QBO: -3.18
July 2017 QBO: -10.48





Breakdown




Only downside I see to this analog is how it's largely based in Nino 3.4 and 4 (central to west-based). Too early to tell if this Nina will be similar, but I doubt it's going to be that west-based. But overall definitely a good match for the setup we're currently expecting.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234728 · Replies: · Views: 87,299

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Watching for the cycle. Notice the greens popping up due south of the TVS. This exact same thing happened last time it cycled.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234723 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:29 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Tornado has significantly weakened or lifted
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234722 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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No more debris signature but most likely a tornado on the ground; weak echo hole spotted (yellow triangle). Melvin, IA about to get hit... population of 214.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234720 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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PDS warning
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234718 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Unfortunately have a debris signature on CC and Zdr. 130 MPH G2G rotation.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234717 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:11 PM


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120 MPH G2G rotation
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234716 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 08:09 PM


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Heck of a cyclical supercell
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234715 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:38 PM


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Yikes hopefully there's nothing on the ground
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234712 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:13 PM


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Not a bad setup. Got some shear, so that's always a plus this time of year. Hoping GFS is underestimating moisture and/or directional shear.




Sounding in SW OH


Sounding in west-central IN has better speed and directional shear but that's it. Both soundings need more moisture
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234709 · Replies: · Views: 88

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 11:22 PM


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Good looking tornado

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234630 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 08:31 PM


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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Aug 17 2017, 09:26 PM) *
Pouring oceans right now. Getting a lot of beneficial rain today.

Storms just keep popping. Heat index almost reached 100 today... had plenty of energy to use today. It really didn't feel that hot... probably because this was the 2nd day in a row like this.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234624 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 08:24 PM


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Officially have a tornado report from the tornado warning in Ohio. This will most likely be Ohio's 23rd confirmed tornado this year... which would officially put us above the 10 year average with 3.5 months left to go in the year. I believe we average 1-3 tornadoes per month from here on.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234620 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 08:11 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 17 2017, 08:37 PM) *
2016-17 is definitely an analog.

However, it really could go either way. There are reasons to be hopeful for this winter & there are reasons to compare to last year.

One thing for sure...the pattern that has begun developing is a stark difference from last year this time.

FWIW...the trough out west & -PNA last August ended up being a precursor to winter. Hoping what we've been seeing are some hints of this winter.

We were already in Nina thresholds this time last year. We're approaching that status now... probably gonna be another month or two until we get to where we were this time last year.

Forecast from this time last year


Forecast now


The Nina did NOT peak in late December like CFS thought; it was actually early November.

This Nina is starting later, that's already a fact. So will this Nina consequently peak later than last year? What impacts will that have? The possibility of a later peak is why I wouldn't consider 2016-17 a great analog. Since we most likely won't have anything like we had last winter (severe weather kept it interesting enough for me), I'm hoping that we'll have a more Nina-esque winter.

By the way, I'm just assuming this winter is a Nina just out of simplicity sake. It's becoming more apparent this may be another Nina winter, but it's not set in stone yet.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234619 · Replies: · Views: 87,299

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 07:28 PM


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Just noticed you mentioned forcing. Again, too early to tell... but just to address that more properly than showing the SSTs... here's precip anomalies

Forecast this time last year


Forecast now
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234614 · Replies: · Views: 87,299

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 07:22 PM


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Confirmed tornado in MI
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234613 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 07:17 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 17 2017, 08:12 PM) *
ENSO...doesn't look as far west with forcing as last winter. Either way the -QBO almost certainly guarantees a different winter either for the better of worse, but different nonetheless.

Too early to say that. CFS missed out on the westward extent of the Nina last year.

DJF forecast from this time last year


DJF forecast now


ENSO-wise, incredibly similar. Biggest differences is that this years forecast has a more Nina-esque look in the east... last years forecast was for a very slightly stronger Nina (hence the -1C contour)... and a significantly cooler NE PAC.

Then you have last months JAMSTEC whose solution is almost laughable now. Won't waste more time on that.

With a -QBO expected, I can't wait for all the Dr. Cohen hype this year... ugh rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234612 · Replies: · Views: 87,299

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 07:03 PM


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CFS and GFS picking up on enhanced easterlies between IDL (Nino 4) and the eastern bound of the Indian Ocean. Transfer of ocean temps may not be very beneficial to cooling the water because the temp is pretty much the same through the area, but upwelling caused by the stronger winds may help.


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234609 · Replies: · Views: 42,332

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 06:44 PM


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2 tornado warned storms now. Northern one is the same one that was confirmed earlier
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234603 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 06:24 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 17 2017, 07:11 PM) *
Finally got a tornado warning in NE OH. So many supercells had tornadic rotation, surprised this was the first and only one.

Confirmed

Attached Image

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234600 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 06:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Finally got a tornado warning in NE OH. So many supercells had tornadic rotation, surprised this was the first and only one.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234599 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 04:49 PM


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Maybe?
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234594 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 04:34 PM


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Tiny little rex block in the north Atlantic...

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234593 · Replies: · Views: 46,630

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 04:07 PM


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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Aug 17 2017, 02:56 PM) *
About to actually getting some interesting weather. It's been dry and boring here the last couple weeks.



QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 17 2017, 02:58 PM) *
Lots of lightning to my south/southeast. Got some rain here but missed the business end to my south.

Got nailed in Mason. Lots and lots of lightning, some were very close. I think one strike hit something because the traffic lights were blinking in the vicinity of Kings Island.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2234592 · Replies: · Views: 1,463

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 17 2017, 03:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Aug 17 2017, 04:19 PM) *
ok we've made up for 14' and 15', lets get a winter now. I'm getting antsy again and the setup is looking much better

I dunno about that. Well, at least as far as ENSO/PDO is concerned, it's not much better than last year IMO.

Still waiting on JAMSTEC to update for August. Last update finally brought it into positive-neutral territory. I'd be surprised if it doesn't have Nino 3.4 going below 0 this winter.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2234591 · Replies: · Views: 87,299

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