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> Spring 2017
snowgeek93
post Yesterday, 05:22 PM
Post #981




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From: Thornhill, Ontario
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 22 2017, 04:33 PM) *
Lots of rain coming from Friday into Wednesday across Southern Ontario. Quite a dreary period setting up here.

Yeah, not the best stretch ahead but it will pass and at least the days are longer now. Nothing like that dreary stretch back in January which combined with the shorter days was just awful.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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bigmt
post Yesterday, 05:31 PM
Post #982




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The latest from the GFS out to day 7.

18z GFS @ hour 48:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_8.png ( 224.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_12.png ( 215.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_16.png ( 218.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_20.png ( 218.01K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 144:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_24.png ( 219.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 168:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_28.png ( 221.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip-type @ hour 168:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_accum_quebec_29.png ( 236.48K ) Number of downloads: 2
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shane o mac
post Yesterday, 07:10 PM
Post #983




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Pattern looks good for last grasps of winter storms up here , perhaps 2 chances for more wintery weather spring not coming anytime soon !
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MrMusic
post Yesterday, 08:51 PM
Post #984




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 22 2017, 06:22 PM) *
Yeah, not the best stretch ahead but it will pass and at least the days are longer now. Nothing like that dreary stretch back in January which combined with the shorter days was just awful.

Yea early spring and fall are when I love big rainstorms. Spring rain is glorious and essential for the growing season. Looks like lots of mild air on tap coming up too.


--------------------
Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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bigmt
post Today, 03:02 AM
Post #985




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00z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

Attached File  gg56t.png ( 79.12K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Today, 03:02 AM
Post #986




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Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-week/70001194

QUOTE
A warm front will lift northeastward toward eastern Canada Thursday night and Friday. As it interacts with the cold dome of air that is already in place, there will likely be a period of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

A second arctic high pressure system will then press southeastward toward northern Ontario and Quebec late this week into the weekend. This will force another front southward into southern Ontario and the Northeast U.S. later in the weekend. Where this front stalls will be key in determining where a narrow band of snow and ice will set up over the weekend.

1. As the warm front approaches, I expect a period of snow, sleet or freezing rain to break out in areas north of Toronto late Thursday night. I am talking mainly on a line from Orangeville to Newmarket to Port Perry on north/east. Untreated roads could get slippery into Friday morning. Temperatures in the GTA will likely be a bit too warm for ice.

2. By Friday afternoon, any icing should be done in the above areas. However, then the concerns will shift northeastward into Ottawa and Montreal Friday morning through the midday with the potential for a slushy coating to 4 cm of snow, mixed with sleet. Roads should just be wet by the middle of the afternoon.

3. Saturday is a tough call as it all depends where the front sets up. At this point, I do see the potential for snow or mixed precipitation in the Ottawa to Montreal region, but not a lot. Any road problems will be on untreated surfaces during the morning and again in the evening thanks to the March sun effect.

4. By Sunday, another wave of low pressure may move along the stalled front and there is the potential for an icy mix near the Ottawa Valley region.

5. Out West, a series of Pacific storms will bring rounds of locally heavy coastal rain and mountain snow to BC through the middle of next week. Ski conditions should be pretty good. A westerly mid-level flow of air associated with the strong Pacific jet means that most of these storms will lose a lot of their moisture as they cross the Rockies into Alberta.

6. One particular storm has the potential to bring heavy rain and strong southerly winds to Vancouver Island Thursday night (tomorrow night). Winds along the coast in over the higher terrain could easily gust past 85 kmh.

7. Certainly there will not be any shortage of precipitation across southern Ontario over the next 10 days from what I see.
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willyswagon
post Today, 04:23 AM
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Just Rotten here today, Blizzard warning still in effect, with winds NNW 65 gusting to 90 kph. Vis is terrible, plows still off of the roads, many work places delaying openings, and the Confederation Bridge has a rare Full Closure in place. Can't possibly tell how much snow has fallen due to the winds pushing it all into the woods.
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bigmt
post Today, 04:44 AM
Post #988




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Today's snow update fixes the previous error with YQY which pushes it over the 400cm mark and also takes YYG past 300cm.

YYJ Victoria, BC - 58.3cm / 39cm (+0)
YVR Vancouver, BC - 69.6cm / 37.7cm (+0)
YYC Calgary, AB - 95.8cm / 84.1cm (+0)

YHM Hamilton, ON - 95.6cm / 146.9cm (+0)
YYZ Toronto, ON - 78.8cm / 103.6cm (+0)
YOW Ottawa, ON - 272.1cm / 208.2cm (+0)
YUL Montreal, QC - 217.9cm / 194.8cm (+0)
YSJ Saint John, NB - 293.8cm / 217.8cm (+1)
YYG Charlottetown, PEI - 309.1cm / 260.5cm (+17.2)
YHZ Halifax, NS - 350.9cm / 203cm (+2)
YQY Sydney, NS - 401cm / 258.6cm (+7)
YYT St. John's, NL - 389.7cm / 302.8cm (+12.4)
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willyswagon
post Today, 04:54 AM
Post #989




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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 23 2017, 05:44 AM) *
Today's snow update fixes the previous error with YQY which pushes it over the 400cm mark and also takes YYG past 300cm.

YYJ Victoria, BC - 58.3cm / 39cm (+0)
YVR Vancouver, BC - 69.6cm / 37.7cm (+0)
YYC Calgary, AB - 95.8cm / 84.1cm (+0)

YHM Hamilton, ON - 95.6cm / 146.9cm (+0)
YYZ Toronto, ON - 78.8cm / 103.6cm (+0)
YOW Ottawa, ON - 272.1cm / 208.2cm (+0)
YUL Montreal, QC - 217.9cm / 194.8cm (+0)
YSJ Saint John, NB - 293.8cm / 217.8cm (+1)
YYG Charlottetown, PEI - 309.1cm / 260.5cm (+17.2)
YHZ Halifax, NS - 350.9cm / 203cm (+2)
YQY Sydney, NS - 401cm / 258.6cm (+7)
YYT St. John's, NL - 389.7cm / 302.8cm (+12.4)



The amazing part of the YYG numbers is that even with over 300cm this year, it was hardly what we call useable snow. It often came with high winds which places it in the woods, or was followed by long mild spells causing quick melts.
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bigmt
post Today, 05:08 AM
Post #990




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QUOTE(willyswagon @ Mar 23 2017, 05:54 AM) *
The amazing part of the YYG numbers is that even with over 300cm this year, it was hardly what we call useable snow. It often came with high winds which places it in the woods, or was followed by long mild spells causing quick melts.


Seems like a commonplace issue in the east this season but not terribly unusual in a Nina-ish regime (especially a widespread mild one such as this) where warmer air is available in the south and the flow can often encourage it to push northeast. Sometimes the best hope is for your gains to be consistent enough to offset your losses.
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bigmt
post Today, 05:39 AM
Post #991




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Updated info from the GFS out to day 8, beginning early AM Saturday and extending into late next week by 24-hour increments.

06z GFS @ hour 48:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_8.png ( 224.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_12.png ( 216.29K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_16.png ( 217.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_20.png ( 216.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 144:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_24.png ( 218.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 168:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_28.png ( 218.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 192:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_32.png ( 151.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


Precip-type @ hour 192:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_accum_quebec_33.png ( 238.06K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Today, 06:56 AM
Post #992




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Another stunningly clear but cold morning here. Last one until next week by the looks of it.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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bigmt
post Today, 07:12 AM
Post #993




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06z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_41fr5.png ( 984.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_51fgt.png ( 916.05K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61t65.png ( 983.48K ) Number of downloads: 0
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newfiebrit
post Today, 07:13 AM
Post #994




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A rapid fire 15cm here overnight, pure cement with a bit of rain and milder temps on top. First time all winter the plow pushed the snow right back to the curb, quite a sizeable and heavy pile to shovel (snowblower fairly usesless on this stuff) earlier this AM. Looks like there will be some melt with temps around 3c though dropping to minus 10 tonight, what's left will be a solid snowpack tomorrow, winter goes on at least for another week or more.

QUOTE
Ryan Snoddon‏
15 cm of snow overnight at St. John's YYT.
Some impressive snowfall rates, including 6 cm between 1:30 and 2:30 am. #nlwx #nltraffic


This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Today, 07:14 AM
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