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> ENSO Alert System: El Nino! for 2015/16 has ended..., All 'El Nino's' are not the same... :-) (you can say that
idecline
post Mar 12 2014, 06:44 AM
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As of March 10, 2014 CPC's Enso Diagnostic Discussion has given a 50% chance of El Nino developing by Summer or Fall of 2014...
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Many factors are coming together that help to produce the Equatorial Pacific 'warm' regime...
Attached File  04_elninopheno.jpg ( 61.11K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  index.jpg ( 7.31K ) Number of downloads: 1

A large oceanic Kelvin wave (downwelling) is progressing across the Pacific...the overall trend in SST's is increasing after the previous upwelling Kelvin wave dropped temperatures in the vital Enso 3.4 region...Enso 4 region now has positive anomalies in SST's, and the others are rising as the wave progresses eastwards...

In the upper ocean the SST's are rising and anomalous westerly winds in lower levels (850-hpa) are helping to push this warm pool out to the International Date Line and beyond...

Upper Ocean (0-300m) temperature anomalies have strongly increased since the end of January...
Attached File  figure3.gif ( 23.3K ) Number of downloads: 2


Upper Ocean Heat Content is highest at the onset of an El Nino event...

CFS.v2 concurs on likely El Nino conditions by Late Summer/Fall:
Attached File  nino34Mon.gif ( 18.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


This is just the beginning...many more factors to talk about...and as the Sub-surface warm pool begins to rise, then crest in the South America equatorial coastal waters...
this should depress the thermocline...sending a large amount of built up water sliding 'down-hill' from the Western Pacific basin (this water gets pooled up on the Western side of the basin because of water drawn in from convection and the persistent easterly Trade Winds)..
Attached File  images.jpg ( 10.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


That is a massive pool of warm sub-surface waters.... wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 14 2016, 06:15 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
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"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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WEATHERFREAK
post Mar 12 2014, 02:26 PM
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Finally a real chance of El Nino!!!


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MaineJay
post Mar 15 2014, 10:24 AM
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Looking warmer every time, PDO getting close to positive also?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...wkxzteq_anm.gif

CODE
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41
2014** 0.30 0.38

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 15 2014, 10:30 AM


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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 16 2014, 08:34 AM
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Although I am not all that familiar with what an El Nino will bring "weather wise" to my area (other then what I read on here) one is for certain however and that is I've heard lots and lots of folks (Pro Mets-hobbyist and everyone in between) speaking in VOLUME regarding the aforementioned and it seems I guess depending on a person’s given location within the CONUS they either "like or hate" the fact of the pending El Nino.
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jdrenken
post Mar 16 2014, 12:43 PM
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This is fitting perfectly into my collaboration with Mizzou!


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The Snowman
post Mar 16 2014, 04:47 PM
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Made a new blog post on the probabilities for a strong El Nino later this year. Lot of data, but it looks like there is a real possibility for a strong Nino.

Link: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/...be-forming.html

FWIW, my thoughts are we see at least a moderate El Nino by winter. Hesitant on strong, even though some of the data in the post says otherwise.


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Chambana
post Mar 17 2014, 08:08 AM
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Nice write up snowman! It's going to be nice to have a new enso signal, after La Nina, Neutral, have ruled the roost since 2010.
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Chambana
post Mar 17 2014, 08:17 AM
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Pertaining to snowmans post, I plotted the "Super El Nino " winter of 1997, and the winter that preceded it, 1998. The picture paints a full blown blow torch over the whole CONUS. With some cooler anomalies confined to the west coast.
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The Snowman
post Mar 18 2014, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Mar 17 2014, 08:08 AM) *
Nice write up snowman! It's going to be nice to have a new enso signal, after La Nina, Neutral, have ruled the roost since 2010.

Meh, Ninos bring dry winters to the area. As much as I want spring in the short term, I'm game for another 70" winter in 8 to 9 months.


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grace
post Mar 18 2014, 11:53 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 18 2014, 04:08 PM) *
Meh, Ninos bring dry winters to the area. As much as I want spring in the short term, I'm game for another 70" winter in 8 to 9 months.


Us folks down south like El Nino winters...smile.gif. Hopefully the warmer waters will be in 3.4 region. If so...we could have some fun. wink.gif
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grace
post Mar 18 2014, 11:57 PM
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New JAMSTEC is now predicting El Nino to be short lived:





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MaineJay
post Mar 19 2014, 03:34 AM
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Current ENSO indices courtesy of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology
Nino 3
Attached File  nino3.png ( 13.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

Nino 3.4
Attached File  nino3_4.png ( 13.12K ) Number of downloads: 0

Nino 4
Attached File  nino4.png ( 13.01K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml


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idecline
post Mar 19 2014, 03:35 AM
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How about the latest CFS.v2 (including JAMSTEC)
Attached File  nino34Mon.gif ( 19.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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idecline
post Mar 19 2014, 03:56 AM
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From my personal weather thread "California 'Coffee Talk'" somewhere in this Forum....

Mar. 12, 2012:
QUOTE
The general pattern of ENSO affects how the 'usual' patterns of weather progress.
In El Nino years, it is a true aberration of 'normal' conditions with warmer water along the West Coast and the main area of convection in the N. Pacific ocean shifts East towards the US.
In 'normal' and La Nina years we have upwelling along the coast with the cooler waters prevailing.

In general the Pacific Basin acts likes a large bathtub with more convection and lower pressure over the Indonesian archipelago, this 'collects' the warmer ocean waters in the Western Pacific basin. The thermocline stays depressed (no upwelling). while the Eastern Pacific water is cooler with onshore winds and upwelling. The surface water builds up also creating a build-up of water in the Western basin, it can be several feet higher of the coast of Borneo than it is off the coast of Peru. When the water sloshes back towards the Eastern Pacific it comes over courtesy of the Kelvin waves which use the equator as a wave guide. This is when an El Nino can occur, when a consistent change in the equatorial trade winds blows towards the East and pushes warmer, moist air Westward and creates more convection along the Eastern Pacific Basin.


IMHO (and what extensive study has given me some insight on)

It is this sloshing of waters that is a big sign of an El Nino signal...and SST's mirror that trend...
Attached File  sstaanim.gif ( 467.61K ) Number of downloads: 0

(cnrfc.noaa.gov)
Plus the 'centers' of convection appear to be slowly moving away from Indonesia towards the East...
Attached File  olr.anom.90day.gif ( 58.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 19 2014, 04:08 AM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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MaineJay
post Mar 22 2014, 05:14 AM
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The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is based on sea level pressure differences between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti, and can indicate El Nino conditions. Sustained values below-8 are associated with El Nino conditions (+8, La Nina). I'll be watching to see if it stays at these levels.

Attached File  soi30.png ( 14.94K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png

850 mb winds over the past month indicate westerly winds are disrupting the equatorial easterly trade winds, up to and perhaps a bit beyond the international date line. This could help the warm waters of the eastern Pacific "slosh" back towards South America as idecline discussed.

Attached File  uv850_30d.gif ( 39.95K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...e/uv850-30d.gif

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 22 2014, 05:14 AM


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Chambana
post Mar 23 2014, 08:53 AM
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Does anybody know what the summer looked like, following double neutral years, with a quick transition to a possible strong El Niño? Also, did anyone catch in the article, they are already stating, if the ENSO signal becomes as strong as they expect, 2015 is poised to be one of the warmest years on record.
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MaineJay
post Mar 23 2014, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Mar 23 2014, 08:53 AM) *
Does anybody know what the summer looked like, following double neutral years, with a quick transition to a possible strong El Niño? Also, did anyone catch in the article, they are already stating, if the ENSO signal becomes as strong as they expect, 2015 is poised to be one of the warmest years on record.

I had a little time, so using this table that goes back to 1950, I saw three El Nino that followed 2 or more neutral years. 1963,1982,1991. Feel free to suggest other years or omissions that I should consider. 1968 had a later starting El Nino so I omitted it.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...ensoyears.shtml
Temperature anomaly for JJA
Attached File  cd2604_6000_1512_604c_29e7_b8be_ed97_f154.81.16.4.9.prcp.png ( 132K ) Number of downloads: 3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/...mit=Create+Plot
Precipitation anomaly
Attached File  cd2604_6000_1512_604c_29e7_b8be_ed97_f154.81.16.8.9.prcp.png ( 129.72K ) Number of downloads: 1
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/...mit=Create+Plot

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 23 2014, 06:21 PM


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jdrenken
post Mar 23 2014, 05:10 PM
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Great job on the discussion!


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MaineJay
post Mar 23 2014, 07:37 PM
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I feel this plot really shows how the Kelvin waves have been progressively getting stronger.
Depth anomaly off 20°C isotherm at the equator
Attached File  wkd20eq2_anm.gif ( 35.11K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...kd20eq2_anm.gif
There is a huge mass of warm water, apparently approaching +6°C, lurking, and perhaps already surfacing around 150W and close to south America.
Attached File  wkteq_xz.gif ( 32.57K ) Number of downloads: 2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...10/wkteq_xz.gif


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Chambana
post Mar 23 2014, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 23 2014, 05:09 PM) *
I had a little time, so using this table that goes back to 1950, I saw three El Nino that followed 2 or more neutral years. 1963,1982,1991. Feel free to suggest other years or omissions that I should consider. 1968 had a later starting El Nino so I omitted it.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...ensoyears.shtml
Temperature anomaly for JJA
Attached File  cd2604_6000_1512_604c_29e7_b8be_ed97_f154.81.16.4.9.prcp.png ( 132K ) Number of downloads: 3

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/...mit=Create+Plot
Precipitation anomaly
Attached File  cd2604_6000_1512_604c_29e7_b8be_ed97_f154.81.16.8.9.prcp.png ( 129.72K ) Number of downloads: 1
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/...mit=Create+Plot


Thank you MJ! Just as I expected, cooler than normal conditions. Needless to say, very interesting times lie ahead wink.gif
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