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> ENSO Alert System: El Nino! for 2015/16 has ended..., All 'El Nino's' are not the same... :-) (you can say that
MaineJay
post Apr 7 2014, 05:03 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Apr 6 2014, 06:15 PM) *
Easterlies are in charge for a bit as the MJO is over the maritime continent with nice CCKW coupling along with +SOI values showing up in the dailies. We should begin to see another WWB between ~4/20-5/1 as tropical forcing allow's the downwelling OKW to move up to the surface. From that point on, the floodgates open for major warming.


Does the state/strength of the QBO have any effects on El Nino, or vice versa?


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blizzardOf96
post Apr 7 2014, 06:39 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 7 2014, 06:03 AM) *
Does the state/strength of the QBO have any effects on El Nino, or vice versa?


The ENSO state has differing effects on the mid latitude pattern in different QBO state's(-max, +max, +Shear, -Shear). Solar activity also plays a big role in some of these feedbacks, mainly with the stratosphere, NAO, AO and strength of the NAM state(Northern Annular Mode). Trying to find out how these three factors will interact is key to forecasting SSW events in the long term. In terms of QBO actually modulating the enso state or vice versa numbers aren't that impressive statistically(correlations are weak). Free and Seidel wrote a paper in '09 that found a 0.2-0.3 correlation for Jan/Feb with the 50mb QBO and ENSO.


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dab719
post Apr 7 2014, 07:12 AM
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[quote name='grace' date='Mar 19 2014, 12:57 AM' post='1883620']
New JAMSTEC is now predicting El Nino to be short lived:






[/quote

Indications of a Modoki El Nino setting up.
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Chambana
post Apr 7 2014, 01:15 PM
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What if the El nino peaks earlier than expected, and by winter we have a weak El nino? Weak ninos tend to lead to colder than normal winters. We all know the winter of 97-98 was one one of the most mild on record. Jeff from weatherground had a great read on the upcoming event.

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idecline
post Apr 8 2014, 01:25 AM
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QUOTE(dab719 @ Apr 7 2014, 07:12 AM) *
QUOTE(grace)
'Mar 19 2014, [/b]12:57 AM' post='1883620']
New JAMSTEC is now predicting El Nino to be short lived:







Indications of a Modoki El Nino setting up.


JAMSTEC is the only one talking about an El Nino 'Modoki'...and IMHO they have a bias....
also your quote borrowed is from Mar. 19, 2014...and in the meanwhile we are beginning to see signs of a strong full-blown El Nino by Fall....


QUOTE(Chambana @ Apr 7 2014, 01:15 PM) *
What if the El nino peaks earlier than expected, and by winter we have a weak El nino? Weak ninos tend to lead to colder than normal winters. We all know the winter of 97-98 was one one of the most mild on record. Jeff from weatherground had a great read on the upcoming event.


Remember we don't even have an 'El Nino' yet and warming in the ocean does not go away overnight. The Oceans have an extremely long memory...that is why we have been influenced by 'La Nina' and the after-effects of the extreme cool waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean for nearly THREE years...

No matter how big this warm up is ( record breaking...? IMHO) ...the effects will start in Fall and will be with us for a long time......Oceans have a very long temperature 'memory... wink.gif


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MaineJay
post Apr 8 2014, 03:44 AM
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Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says 70% chance of El Nino by southern hemisphere winter. This is a more bullish outlook from them.

QUOTE
El Niño likely to develop in winter
Issued on Tuesday 8 April 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Overview

Sea surface temperature anomalies (click to animate smile.gif )
Attached File  surface_anim.gif ( 1.66MB ) Number of downloads: 7

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 8 2014, 03:45 AM


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idecline
post Apr 8 2014, 04:33 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Mar 12 2014, 06:44 AM) *
As of March 10, 2014 CPC's Enso Diagnostic Discussion has given a 50% chance of El Nino developing by Summer or Fall of 2014...
CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Many factors are coming together that help to produce the Equatorial Pacific 'warm' regime...

A large oceanic Kelvin wave (downwelling) is progressing across the Pacific...the overall trend in SST's is increasing after the previous upwelling Kelvin wave dropped temperatures in the vital Enso 3.4 region...Enso 4 region now has positive anomalies in SST's, and the others are rising as the wave progresses eastwards...

In the upper ocean the SST's are rising and anomalous westerly winds in lower levels (850-hpa) are helping to push this warm pool out to the International Date Line and beyond...

Upper Ocean (0-300m) temperature anomalies have strongly increased since the end of January...
Upper Ocean Heat Content is highest at the onset of an El Nino event...

This is just the beginning...many more factors to talk about...and as the Sub-surface warm pool begins to rise, then crest in the South America equatorial coastal waters...
this should depress the thermocline...sending a large amount of built up water sliding 'down-hill' from the Western Pacific basin (this water gets pooled up on the Western side of the basin because of water drawn in from convection and the persistent easterly Trade Winds)..


A partial 're-post' of the thread opening post... huh.gif

Upper Ocean Heat Content is highest at the onset of an El Nino event...

Attached File  heat_last_year.gif ( 6.16K ) Number of downloads: 2


It is a build-up of warm waters in the Central/Eastern Equatorial Pacific that create an 'El Nino'
Every 'El Nino" event is unique....and so are it's 'teleconnections'...
there are strong tendencies depending upon the strength and seasonal variations of the 'El Nino'...but there are no 'sure things'...

laugh.gif Sure is a lot of 'hot' water building up in the ENSO regions...(perhaps to rival 1997-98?) unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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MaineJay
post Apr 9 2014, 05:22 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 31 2014, 08:39 PM) *
The Kelvin wave has hit a brick wall. Fresh update from BOM puts warmth at +6.35 C, was +6.31 C four days ago. Big slowdown in warming, considering Mar. 24-27 saw +0.49 C rise.

Latest map shown below, next update expected April 2nd or 3rd.



Up to +6.72°C, also, it obliterated most of the cold anomalies near South America.
Attached File  IDYOC002.gif ( 27.21K ) Number of downloads: 2

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC002.gif
Attached File  wkteq_xz_1.gif ( 31.77K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...10/wkteq_xz.gif
QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Apr 7 2014, 07:39 AM) *
The ENSO state has differing effects on the mid latitude pattern in different QBO state's(-max, +max, +Shear, -Shear). Solar activity also plays a big role in some of these feedbacks, mainly with the stratosphere, NAO, AO and strength of the NAM state(Northern Annular Mode). Trying to find out how these three factors will interact is key to forecasting SSW events in the long term. In terms of QBO actually modulating the enso state or vice versa numbers aren't that impressive statistically(correlations are weak). Free and Seidel wrote a paper in '09 that found a 0.2-0.3 correlation for Jan/Feb with the 50mb QBO and ENSO.

Thanks!

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 9 2014, 05:32 AM


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MaineJay
post Apr 10 2014, 04:17 AM
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It is noted at the top off the page that this forecast it's not an official NOAA forecast, but clearly this dude, Klaus Wolter, must know his stuff, he even puts his phone number as the bottom of the page.


QUOTE
In the context of ENSO-neutral conditions since August-September 2013, this section features a comparison figure with persistent ENSO-neutral conditions for at least six bimonthly MEI values and ending in close proximity to the ranking of January-February 2014 MEI. Longer-lived neutral conditions (such as 1959-61) could only enter once into this comparison figure.
The updated (February-March) MEI has gone up a quarter standard deviation, now at -0.02. Its current ranking has gone up to the 33rd lowest out of 65, still solidly in ENSO-neutral territory. To find analogous cases, I looked at the nearest-ranked Feb-Mar MEI values, and required an increase in their rankings from both the previous month and from Nov-Dec. Of the 9 cases selected in this fashion, three remained either neutral (1960) or dropped back to La Niña status within a year (1961, 1984). The other SIX cases look like a roll-call of historic El Niño events since 1950: 1957-58,'65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-88, and '97-98. Not only does this confirm the increased odds of an El Niño in 2014 (first pointed out four months ago on this wepage), it also translates into higher odds for a moderate-to-strong El Niño.
In a big change from last month, positive SST anomalies now cover much of the eastern equatorial Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. Negative SST anomalies are still found near the coast of South America.
For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the latest NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (March 6th, 2014), ENSO-neutral conditions are diagnosed and expected to continue through the boreal spring of 2014, followed by a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall. As explained above, I am more 'bullish' on El Niño development in 2014, even more so than last month.
There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In 2013, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 rose from close to -0.5C in January to within +/-0.2C in March and April of that year. While Niño 3 dropped back to -0.5C and even lower from May through August, Niño 3.4 remained less negative (around -0.3C) through this period. During September through December, both indices hovered close to or just under 0C. In January 2014, both indices dropped, down to -0.4C (-0.5C) for Niño 3 (3.4), respectively. This drop continued for Niño 3 in February 2014, (-0.8C), while Niño 3.4 stabilized at -0.55C. March 2014 shows both indices recovering back to -0.2C, while the latest weekly information shows positive SST anomalies since mid-March.
For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2013, the SOI varied from slightly negative values early in the year (-4 in February) all the way to +14 in June and back down to -2 in October. It rose back up to +9 in November, consistent with potentially re-emerging La Niña conditions. However, the December value dropped right back to +1, only to be followed by a jump to +12 in January 2014, and back to slightly negative values (-1) in February. This was followed by a further drop to -13 in March 2014, its lowest March value since 1998(!). The SOI remains the noisiest ENSO index that I can think of, but this is excursion into El Niño territory is noteworthy.
An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates (just updated through January 2014). Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now a full three years behind in its update (through January 2011).
Stay tuned for the next update by May 10th (probably earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño came and went during the summer of 2012, not unlike 1953. This was followed by two ENSO-neutral winters, and occasional dips into weak La Niña conditions over the last 1.5 years. It appears that this is about to change, and full-fledged El Niño conditions may arrive sooner rather than later.


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html

Daily SOI figures indicate a return to negative values following a week of positive values, we will see if it keeps moving down. This index differs slightly from the one compiled by Australia's BoM, but it shows the daily number which is helpful.
Attached File  2014.gif ( 7.58K ) Number of downloads: 0

CODE
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI
12 Mar 2014 1011.62 1009.30 -8.57 -7.78 2.09
13 Mar 2014 1010.75 1008.95 -11.06 -7.84 1.92
14 Mar 2014 1010.53 1009.55 -14.98 -7.98 1.62
15 Mar 2014 1009.38 1010.70 -25.99 -8.24 1.18
16 Mar 2014 1008.55 1009.75 -25.42 -8.65 0.81
17 Mar 2014 1009.09 1010.40 -25.94 -9.44 0.37
18 Mar 2014 1009.21 1009.75 -22.26 -10.43 -0.02
19 Mar 2014 1007.89 1010.20 -30.73 -11.76 -0.41
20 Mar 2014 1007.49 1009.30 -28.34 -12.99 -0.72
21 Mar 2014 1009.69 1008.25 -12.78 -13.51 -0.86
22 Mar 2014 1012.26 1007.45 3.35 -13.34 -0.77
23 Mar 2014 1011.79 1008.60 -4.40 -12.93 -0.78
24 Mar 2014 1011.83 1008.60 -4.21 -12.30 -0.85
25 Mar 2014 1012.53 1008.55 -0.62 -12.05 -0.88
26 Mar 2014 1012.80 1009.15 -2.20 -12.27 -0.88
27 Mar 2014 1013.35 1009.70 -2.20 -12.30 -0.81
28 Mar 2014 1013.79 1009.65 0.14 -12.00 -0.65
29 Mar 2014 1014.13 1010.55 -2.54 -11.75 -0.54
30 Mar 2014 1012.74 1010.55 -9.19 -11.84 -0.61
31 Mar 2014 1011.31 1010.95 -17.95 -12.29 -0.82
1 Apr 2014 1010.09 1009.40 -12.26 -12.40 -0.95
2 Apr 2014 1010.28 1008.00 -0.79 -12.14 -0.93
3 Apr 2014 1012.61 1008.85 9.88 -11.25 -0.76
4 Apr 2014 1013.18 1009.50 9.30 -10.27 -0.58
5 Apr 2014 1012.70 1009.55 5.48 -9.54 -0.49
6 Apr 2014 1012.81 1009.40 7.35 -8.53 -0.42
7 Apr 2014 1013.29 1009.35 11.17 -7.81 -0.31
8 Apr 2014 1013.08 1008.85 13.27 -7.21 -0.25
9 Apr 2014 1012.55 1009.00 8.36 -6.74 -0.31
10 Apr 2014 1010.80 1009.45 -7.50 -6.72 -0.55

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 10 2014, 04:24 AM


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jdrenken
post Apr 10 2014, 02:31 PM
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El Niño and Mid-Missouri
QUOTE
Looking at the Climate Prediction Center’s Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes website, I have created a list of analogs for such. These analogs, based on ONI (Oceanic El Niño Index) alone, are…



1963, 1968, 1982, 1986, 1986, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2006, and 2009


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MaineJay
post Apr 11 2014, 04:56 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Apr 10 2014, 03:31 PM) *


I'm surprised 1997 didn't make the list.

Finally a March number from JISAO.
PDO heading further into positive territory, highest monthly reading since June 2006.

CODE
2006** 1.03 0.66 0.05 0.40 0.48 1.04 0.35 -0.65 -0.94 -0.05 -0.22 0.14
2007** 0.01 0.04 -0.36 0.16 -0.10 0.09 0.78 0.50 -0.36 -1.45 -1.08 -0.58
2008** -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 -1.52 -1.37 -1.34 -1.67 -1.70 -1.55 -1.76 -1.25 -0.87
2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08
2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21
2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79
2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41
2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 11 2014, 04:58 AM


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jdrenken
post Apr 11 2014, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 11 2014, 04:56 AM) *
I'm surprised 1997 didn't make the list.


1997 was just too strong for my liking.


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MaineJay
post Apr 16 2014, 04:53 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 31 2014, 04:32 PM) *
Some model forecasts from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology

April
[attachment=234450:nino_summary_2.png]
June
[attachment=234452:nino_summary_4.png]
August
[attachment=234453:nino_summary_6.png]
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-...s=Pacific-Ocean

Updated model forecasts, definitely looks more bullish in terms of El Niño

I'd also note that Australia's Bureau if Meteorology uses +0.8°C for a threshold where NOAA uses +0.5°C, if I'm not mistaken.
May
Attached File  nino_summary_2_1.png ( 32.01K ) Number of downloads: 0

July
Attached File  nino_summary_4_1.png ( 31.97K ) Number of downloads: 0

September
Attached File  nino_summary_6_1.png ( 32.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-...s=Pacific-Ocean

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 16 2014, 05:10 PM


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MaineJay
post Apr 20 2014, 06:31 AM
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MJO has moved into the western Pacific, albeit in a weakened state.
Attached File  phase.Last40days.gif ( 11.86K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom...Last40days.html
Anomalous westerlies likely associated with the MJO.
Attached File  u850a_c.gif ( 172.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...ate/u850a_c.gif
Current winds show a westerly component extending to about 170°E. A weak low is apparent very close to the equator, within 5°. A tropical system in this location could really help the westerly wind bursts out.
Attached File  Screenshot_2014_04_20_07_08_54.png ( 1.25MB ) Number of downloads: 0

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...07.57,-1.87,587

Much of this is new to me, I'm still am learning about all aspects of weather, but this is my first opportunity to really watch a potential El Niño develop. I'm learning now about Walker circulation and how it transitions into an El Niño state, reinforcing itself.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 20 2014, 06:36 AM


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The Snowman
post Apr 20 2014, 07:38 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 20 2014, 06:31 AM) *
MJO has moved into the western Pacific, albeit in a weakened state.
Attached File  phase.Last40days.gif ( 11.86K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom...Last40days.html
Anomalous westerlies likely associated with the MJO.
Attached File  u850a_c.gif ( 172.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...ate/u850a_c.gif
Current winds show a westerly component extending to about 170°E. A weak low is apparent very close to the equator, within 5°. A tropical system in this location could really help the westerly wind bursts out.
Attached File  Screenshot_2014_04_20_07_08_54.png ( 1.25MB ) Number of downloads: 0

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/...07.57,-1.87,587

Much of this is new to me, I'm still am learning about all aspects of weather, but this is my first opportunity to really watch a potential El Niño develop. I'm learning now about Walker circulation and how it transitions into an El Niño state, reinforcing itself.

Very good- I actually made a blog post discussing the Walker Circulation today, looks like the surface winds are slowing. From what I understand, when we see the surface winds weaken from east-to-west and reverse to west-to-east, it indicates the atmosphere is now "in on" the El Nino concept, rather than it just being detected by SSTAs.

Latest sfc pressures + wind vectors



Previous 5 day averaged sfc pressures + wind vectors



Note the retraction of strong easterlies in the central & eastern Pacific, and a general weakening in the west Pacific as the cell seems to weaken further in advance of the El Nino.


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2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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MaineJay
post Apr 22 2014, 05:58 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 20 2014, 08:38 PM) *
Very good- I actually made a blog post discussing the Walker Circulation today, looks like the surface winds are slowing. From what I understand, when we see the surface winds weaken from east-to-west and reverse to west-to-east, it indicates the atmosphere is now "in on" the El Nino concept, rather than it just being detected by SSTAs.

Latest sfc pressures + wind vectors



Previous 5 day averaged sfc pressures + wind vectors



Note the retraction of strong easterlies in the central & eastern Pacific, and a general weakening in the west Pacific as the cell seems to weaken further in advance of the El Nino.

Thanks, I really enjoyed your blog post, wicked informative.

Looks like the SOI is being stubborn
Attached File  soi30_3.png ( 15.22K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=SOI
Daily numbers from long paddock in the neutral range.

I should indicated the long paddock numbers
Date__________ Tahiti________ Darwin. _____ Daily. ____ 30-day. ____ 90-day.
CODE
15 Apr 2014 1010.59 1009.15 -6.85 -1.39 -1.11
16 Apr 2014 1010.69 1009.70 -10.10 -0.86 -1.51
17 Apr 2014 1010.95 1009.20 -4.62 -0.28 -1.79
18 Apr 2014 1011.49 1009.95 -6.13 0.54 -2.12
19 Apr 2014 1012.36 1009.75 1.58 1.54 -2.34
20 Apr 2014 1012.09 1008.85 6.13 2.17 -2.41
21 Apr 2014 1011.88 1009.00 3.53 2.18 -2.47
22 Apr 2014 1012.95 1009.80 5.48 2.51 -2.54

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 24 2014, 04:49 PM


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MaineJay
post Apr 28 2014, 05:29 AM
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Although the atmosphere is still in a neutral, or even La Niña-ish state, it looks like the Kelvin wave is surfacing near 80W-100W.

Anomalous temps at 55 meters
Attached File  wkteq2_anm_55m.gif ( 28.88K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...eq2_anm_55m.gif
Close up of the south American coast and the Galapagos
Attached File  2604_6000_1512_604c_d479_4145_3db6_29a6.117.4.25.52.png ( 26.27K ) Number of downloads: 1


Image provided by Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/GrADS...+Subset+of+Data

Sea level anomalies
Attached File  wksl_anm.gif ( 32.57K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...10/wksl_anm.gif

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 28 2014, 05:32 AM


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"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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Chambana
post May 1 2014, 08:55 AM
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JB going with a blend of 02-03, 09-10 for the upcoming nino event. Which were rather cold winters across the states. Strong El nino could be botched.

This post has been edited by Chambana: May 1 2014, 09:01 AM
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WEATHERFREAK
post May 1 2014, 01:21 PM
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MJO is back in Phase 8!!!



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MaineJay
post May 5 2014, 05:36 AM
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Haven't had any free time to post, but I'm looking forward to an exciting, update filled week!

This map will likely be updated later today, but I'm posting for reference later. I'm curious to see how strong the upwelling Kelvin wave is. I'm wondering if/when the MJO heads around again, if it can get another downwelling wave going. Looks like there is a little warm water left in the western Pacific.

From Australia's Bureau of Meteorology
Attached File  IDYOC002_2.gif ( 25.91K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC002.gif


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"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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