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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
Mid Tn. Man
post Mar 4 2017, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 4 2017, 01:36 AM) *
Victor tweeting about early April and the GFS between days 9 & 12 are showing sub-980mb storms in the BSR region.


Saw Josh's SOI maps on his blog showing a big spike around the 10th.Big burst around the IDL ongoing enso 3.4 has taking a big dip recently and is back negative again with 1+2 above 2.Looks like the MJO into the last week of March will be getting into the IO.The BSR H5 maps upcoming should look interesting

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Mar 4 2017, 03:50 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 5 2017, 02:31 AM
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Late March east US torch? Massive west trough/east ridge signal. Let's get some 80's up in here




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 5 2017, 02:32 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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snowsux
post Mar 6 2017, 12:55 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 5 2017, 02:31 AM) *
Late March east US torch? Massive west trough/east ridge signal. Let's get some 80's up in here




If only.... rolleyes.gif
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jdrenken
post Mar 8 2017, 09:05 PM
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Food for thought...
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Attached File  Screenshot_2017_03_08_20_04_40.png ( 387.59K ) Number of downloads: 5
 


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jdrenken
post Mar 12 2017, 04:36 AM
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Northeast showing the past month has been golden for the BSR ROC!

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Attached File  bsr658.gif ( 36.59K ) Number of downloads: 3
 


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2017, 01:23 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 3 2017, 01:25 PM) *
A true test...

BSR


NAEFS


CPC has a trough in the NW and you can see the "extension" to the NE, though not as strong as the BSR.


Something to key on in the NE though is the 3 day ROC shows a dip between the 14th and 17th before another spike.

ouch




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 14 2017, 01:25 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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jdrenken
post Mar 14 2017, 01:26 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 14 2017, 01:23 AM) *
ouch




Note what I said about the 3 day ROC. wink.gif


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2017, 01:30 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 14 2017, 02:26 AM) *
Note what I said about the 3 day ROC. wink.gif

That deep plummet-rise-dip pattern is forecast to happen... however, this is not looking pretty. Hmm.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 14 2017, 01:31 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Mar 14 2017, 07:07 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 14 2017, 12:30 AM) *
That deep plummet-rise-dip pattern is forecast to happen... however, this is not looking pretty. Hmm.




Looking at 22-29th 12z NAEFS....not much agreement with organic.

Which too me is refreshing. I hope we never discover anything that helps us know 100% what's going to happen. I like it when mother nature throws a curve! smile.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Mar 16 2017, 07:41 AM
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grace
post Mar 14 2017, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Mar 14 2017, 06:07 PM) *
Looking at 22-29th 12z NAEFS....not much agreement with organic.

Which too me is refreshing. I hope we never discover anything that helps us know 100% what's going to happen. I like it when mother nature gives the middle finger smile.gif



With that said, I like organic discoveries that have helped & I root for JD's research! However, I just like mother nature to stick her tongue out every now & then & say, "Gottcha!" smile.gif
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MaineJay
post Mar 16 2017, 02:31 AM
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Stumbled across an article that may be interesting for some, figure this is a good place for it. White they talk about it's potential to improve numerical prediction, I feel it also translates to what you folks are doing.

QUOTE
From the butterfly's wing to the tornado: Predicting turbulence


I'll just post a snippet

QUOTE
Order in chaos
For hundreds of years, while scientists used math to get a grip on Newton's falling apple, substantiate the Theory of Relativity and theorize the existence of the Higgs boson, turbulence has been like wet soap in math's grasp. But for all its elusiveness, turbulence impresses with visibly coherent, recurring, recognizable shapes.
Fluid swirls quickly establish themselves then shift or disappear, but they reappear persistently at different locations, producing transient and varying, yet repeating patterns.
"People have seen these patterns in turbulent flows for centuries, but we're finding ways to relate the patterns to mathematical equations describing fluid flows," Grigoriev said. Some recurrent patterns, in particular, interest Grigoriev and Schatz. They're called exact coherent structures (ECSs).

They give the physicists convenient entry points into computing predictions about what turbulence will do next.
Turbulent flow snapshots
But what are these exact coherent structures? Visually, in turbulence, they may show up as fleeting moments when the patterns stop changing. And it can look like the flow is temporarily slowing down.
To the untrained eye, an ECS doesn't look much different from the rest of the swirls and curls, but one can learn to spot them. "That's exactly how we go about finding them," Schatz said. "We watch the turbulence, continually taking snapshots. The flow is moving around, moving around. We look for the instant when it slows down the most, and we pick out a snapshot."
"We feed that into the mathematical model," Schatz said, "and it indicates that we're close, and shows what the math looks like at that point." That math solution describes a point in the turbulent flow that can be worked with to compute a prediction of what the turbulence will do next.


Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-03-butterfly-win...ulence.html#jCp


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jdrenken
post Mar 20 2017, 02:03 AM
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What Happened With The BSR?!


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Undertakerson
post Mar 21 2017, 04:20 PM
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Saw this and just had to....

Attached File  batman.PNG ( 1.04MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Trying to substantiate that JD visited the Big Apple lately.

Or if Snowman11 was just playin around laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 21 2017, 05:06 PM
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jdrenken
post Mar 21 2017, 07:30 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 21 2017, 04:20 PM) *
Saw this and just had to....

Attached File  batman.PNG ( 1.04MB ) Number of downloads: 0


Trying to substantiate that JD visited the Big Apple lately.

Or if Snowman11 was just playin around laugh.gif


laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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kpk33x
post Mar 24 2017, 11:06 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 01:36 PM) *


Interesting look back - notice that this post is from 2/26.

The only thing that may have happened different from the text is that we had additional snow in NE and southern Canada, so the cold has been a little more durable and sharper than guessed. But general pattern nailed.

Still from four weeks ago? Thumbs up on that one.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 18" (thru 3/15)
Season Total to date - 121.25" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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jdrenken
post Mar 24 2017, 01:44 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Mar 24 2017, 11:06 AM) *
Interesting look back - notice that this post is from 2/26.

The only thing that may have happened different from the text is that we had additional snow in NE and southern Canada, so the cold has been a little more durable and sharper than guessed. But general pattern nailed.

Still from four weeks ago? Thumbs up on that one.


Thanks man! I brought up what went wrong in the "What Happened With The BSR" article on blog.organicforecasting.com. In fact, if you look at the 500mb chart, you can clearly see how 3 s/w's were very close to phasing and match that up with the dissipating slp off Cape Hatteras and you've got the Nor'easter.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Mar 24 2017, 01:53 PM
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It's tweets like these that make me laugh...

According to her, our research into SOI drops is "flawed" and it's not my data. That's basically saying anyone who uses the government data can't claim it's part of their research. Time to throw away all of our BSR, EAR, RRWT, and SOID research I guess because..."It's not his data" laugh.gif
Attached File  Beth.jpg ( 23.44K ) Number of downloads: 0



She then adds to it claiming that she never knew the lag
Attached File  Beth2.jpg ( 44.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


Now is bragging that the "flawed" research has provided her company the ability to give a 2.5 week warning using a 20 day lag time. Interesting...


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 25 2017, 06:14 AM
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Posted in the Spring Thread but realized it fits better here

First take a pebble and cast it to the sea, then watch the ripples that unfold....... (G. Lake, Take A Pebble)

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 279.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


End of first wk of April - implications.
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