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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
jdrenken
post Sep 13 2014, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 13 2014, 08:57 AM) *
I am certain I just overheard TWC mention the storm in GOA and then say it translates to a trough in the East.


In the short term...yes as it forces a ridge over the Rockies and West Coast.


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jdrenken
post Sep 13 2014, 08:38 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 09:08 PM) *
If you hold end A of the above string and try to give it a continuous up-and-down motion, with a little adjustment of the pace of oscillations, you can make at least the following waveforms:



Each wave travels from A to B and gets reflected at B. When each reflected wave reaches point A, it gets reflected again and the process repeats. Of course the hand motion keeps putting energy into the system by constantly generating waves that are in phase with the returned waves creating the above waveforms. Such waves are called "standing waves."

MORE HERE

Consider the Rossby wave train a standing wave. Consider the northward propagation of the Indian Summer Monsoon the source of energy that jolts the motion, or the "hand motion", mentioned above, putting "new energy" into the system. Up until last week the ISM had been weak. Last week it exploded.


Saw this and immediately thought of the obvious.

Youtube bowling ball experiment.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 13 2014, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2014, 09:38 PM) *
Saw this and immediately thought of the obvious.

Youtube bowling ball experiment.

Those grade school kids got a cooler Physics demonstration than I'll probably ever get in college dry.gif


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OSNW3
post Sep 13 2014, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2014, 08:38 PM) *
Saw this and immediately thought of the obvious.

Youtube bowling ball experiment.


Phase. The position of a point in time (instant) on a waveform cycle. A complete cycle is defined as the interval required for the waveform to reattain its arbitrary initial value.

Time in space. Space in time. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Sep 16 2014, 09:27 AM
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LOL - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/51185115...7211648/photo/1 Can we get something to help that out?


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OSNW3
post Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM
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A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with GFS a few days out. Recurring Rossby 54-60 days (August 13th map). Some "fine tuning" taking place. The long-term waves will lose correlation strength to the short-term waves as Autumn approaches.

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_wpac_13.png ( 548.31K ) Number of downloads: 7


Too much summer?

Attached File  compday.ypR8GXUNcx.gif ( 40.69K ) Number of downloads: 1


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 16 2014, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM) *
A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with GFS a few days out. Recurring Rossby 54-60 days (August 13th map). Some "fine tuning" taking place. The long-term waves will lose correlation strength to the short-term waves as Autumn approaches.

[:gfs_z500..._wpac_]

Too much summer?

[attachment=.]

love the down to the point posts from you guys, ALONG with the met. explainations

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Sep 16 2014, 11:13 AM
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OSNW3
post Sep 16 2014, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 16 2014, 11:11 AM) *
ALONG with the met. explainations


Haha. You'll get nothing of the like from me.

Hot/Cold, Wet/Dry, Trough/Ridge is the extent of my vocabulary. smile.gif


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 17 2014, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 11:21 AM) *
Haha. You'll get nothing of the like from me.

Hot/Cold, Wet/Dry, Trough/Ridge is the extent of my vocabulary. smile.gif

haha I was implying I saw both in that post but then again we could have different meanings of Met vocab
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JDClapper
post Sep 17 2014, 06:40 PM
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Why not. smile.gif I updated my "LRC" file through 9/16/14. The chart uses daily average temp as compared to the 30 year average for Williamsport, PA. This goes back nearly a year and is charted out on a 57 day cycle.

A couple fairly strong repeats I can see with the naked eye (through 6 full cycles).

Circle 1 is a noticeable spike in temps quickly followed by a drop then followed by another quick warm-up.
Circle 2 also shows a spike in temps quickly followed by a drop in temps.

Circle 1 this time around is ~10/8 for a rise in temps and a drop around ~10/11 and rise ~10/13.
Circle 2 this time around is ~10/23 for a rise in temps and a drop or evening out shortly after.

*shrugs* This will probably get disrupted.. but was curious to see how the summer panned out in relation to the fall/winter/spring cycle anyways.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 50.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


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OSNW3
post Sep 17 2014, 07:58 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 17 2014, 03:48 PM) *
And does the intensity of the ISM have anything to do with the jet stream's amplification? In other words, you use the adjective 'explosion'... does a sudden increase imply an unusually meridional jet stream, such as what we saw in 2013-2014? Or inversely, what we saw in 2011-2012?


I am looking at the ISM to create a new kink in the wave. I believe I explained it a bit more in detail a couple posts up about standing waves. Remember the law of conservation of energy too. Fun to think about it in regard to a standing wave too. As far as amplitude and/or vorticity of the Rossby wave train, what I think you are describing, I am not sure. Can't rule out the possibility!

EDIT:



This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 17 2014, 08:33 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 17 2014, 08:10 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 17 2014, 08:58 PM) *
I am looking at the ISM to create a new kink in the wave. I believe I explained it a bit more in detail a couple posts up about standing waves. Remember the law of conservation of energy too. Fun to think about it in regard to a standing wave too. As far as amplitude and/or vorticity of the Rossby wave train, what I think you are describing, I am not sure. Can't rule out the possibility!

Thanks! Although I can hardly understand much of what you guys talk about here (I understand your answer to me though), I'll be watching with interest


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OSNW3
post Sep 17 2014, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 17 2014, 08:10 PM) *
Thanks! Although I can hardly understand much of what you guys talk about here (I understand your answer to me though), I'll be watching with interest


Cool. I wanted to add an image to the post. I forgot. I will do that now.


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OSNW3
post Sep 17 2014, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 17 2014, 06:40 PM) *
Why not. smile.gif I updated my "LRC" file through 9/16/14. The chart uses daily average temp as compared to the 30 year average for Williamsport, PA. This goes back nearly a year and is charted out on a 57 day cycle.

A couple fairly strong repeats I can see with the naked eye (through 6 full cycles).

Circle 1 is a noticeable spike in temps quickly followed by a drop then followed by another quick warm-up.
Circle 2 also shows a spike in temps quickly followed by a drop in temps.

Circle 1 this time around is ~10/8 for a rise in temps and a drop around ~10/11 and rise ~10/13.
Circle 2 this time around is ~10/23 for a rise in temps and a drop or evening out shortly after.

*shrugs* This will probably get disrupted.. but was curious to see how the summer panned out in relation to the fall/winter/spring cycle anyways.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 50.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


Great work on sticking with numbers. I applaud you.

At this moment it is difficult for me to imagine any one harmonic being dominant for an entire year. A 57 day cycle is likely a 3rd, 4th, or 5th harmonic depending on the dominant component. I think the chaotic nature of your chart is evidence of that. The two strong repeats are as well. Below is a chart of the short, mid, long term component and a 57 day cycle for the past year showing daily correlation. I think there is a chart showing some of the dominant harmonics during the past year buried in this thread...

Attached File  iso48.png ( 116.36K ) Number of downloads: 2


But, classic LRC fare. smile.gif

Attached File  lrc30.png ( 56.14K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 17 2014, 09:28 PM


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MaineJay
post Sep 18 2014, 05:25 AM
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I though of you guys when I read this.
Extended forecast discussion

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 21 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 25 2014


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS
THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE VIA A POWERFUL JET
PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BLOCKINESS OVER THE
NATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST--AS WELL AS THE TENACIOUS POLAR
STREAM ASTRIDE THE CANADIAN BORDER--SHOULD BE WIPED AWAY WITHIN A
WEEK. AS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE MARKED BY IMPORTANT DIVERGENCE--PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHENCE THE IMPETUS FOR THE SHUFFLING
EMERGES. FORTUNATELY, THE MOST RECENT ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS ARE
CORRELATED WELL ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A STABLE SYNOPTIC BASE FROM
WHICH TO BUILD THE CURRENT FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE FRESH INFLUX OF ENERGY INTO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD THWART ANY PROTRACTED LINGERING OF THE VORTICITY
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE MOST DRAMATIC SENSIBLE
WEATHER SHIFT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE CASCADES, COASTAL
RANGES, AND IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST BEARING THE BRUNT.



CISCO

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


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OSNW3
post Sep 18 2014, 07:28 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 18 2014, 05:25 AM) *
I though of you guys when I read this.
Extended forecast discussion
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


Dominant short-term? Can't even get a full top-10 lately. I am invested into the model evolution for this time period as I have portrayed a confidence level in the BSR and ISO/RR. We shall see what transpires. smile.gif

Attached File  iso49.png ( 52.48K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  iso50.png ( 52.43K ) Number of downloads: 2




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jdrenken
post Sep 19 2014, 02:56 AM
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Great job gang! Keep up the good work!!


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jdrenken
post Sep 19 2014, 03:06 AM
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Latest

QUOTE
Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

In the West Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Fung-wong approaching the island of Luzon as it curves Northerly barely missing Taiwan due to being latched into a trough over East Asia. Yall know that means Central Missouri will experience a cooler period around the 26th before another quick ridge develops as evident by the cyclone not making another curve to the Northeast until the 23rd. Then another trough picks it up. This will translate to Central Missouri experiencing a slight warm up around the 27th into the 29th before another cooler period hits us for October. My thoughts are still that it will be roughly October 2nd when that happens. Then zonal flow follows for a moderation of temperatures.

The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and wont let go until the 23rd of September for the Bering Sea Rule. We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25th. This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26th and 27th continuing into the beginning of October. This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over. Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

Dont forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as its being noticed on the blogsphere.


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OSNW3
post Sep 19 2014, 09:14 PM
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It's not a pattern flip. It's a dominant harmonic. Try the 3rd. I am sure it is not a coincidence that 12-15 days have been the most recognized since Aug-1.

Attached File  iso51.png ( 31.18K ) Number of downloads: 3


Start with 8/12 connect to 9/22, ish. If you like maps this should prove to be a fun comparison.

Just an idea.


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OSNW3
post Sep 19 2014, 09:42 PM
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While it isn't fully initialized yet, it's fun to see what may be transpiring.

Attached File  1415mbMSP_image011.gif ( 26.24K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  1415mbMSP_image012.gif ( 27.92K ) Number of downloads: 2


A chilly start to the new year?

Attached File  1415mbMSP_image023.gif ( 26.83K ) Number of downloads: 3




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