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> Long Range Spring 2016 Outlooks and Discussions, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 31 2015, 08:17 PM
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It's that time of year where people punt winter and start thinking about spring. So we shall do that here.

In the last Spring thread, I talked about analogs. Needless to say... I'm not confident in any analogs laugh.gif

It seems we're crawling out of the tornado drought, based on the fact that the tornado counts of the past 3 years have consistently risen.



November and December of 2015 had troughs dipping into the west on what seemed like a consistent basis... as a result, there's been a lot of tornadoes (181); the most November/December tornadoes since 2002. There've also been 2 EF4s this December, and the highest December tornado death count since 1953. However as I'm writing this, it looks like that pattern is gonna go away for a bit as a more Nino-like pattern is emerging for January. Therefore, I'm not sure if the pattern we saw in November/December will return. If it does, watch out for a very wild spring with lots of severe storms and warm weather.



JB likes 2010 as an analog for the severe season (gee, I wonder why?), even though that was coming off a Modoki Nino (oh yeah, that's why). Keep in mind though, even 2010 had near-average tornado count despite what JB said.



In the year following the 3 other Super Ninos (1973/1983/1998), 2 of them (1973 and 1998) saw above average annual tornado counts.



And we can narrow it down even more because only one of those 3 years didn't see a Nina directly after the Nino; 1983.

That makes a sample size of 2 out of 2 that supports an active severe/tornado season. I know that's not very reliable, but maybe that's the point.

Just like last year, I'll watch how the pattern evolves in February and going into March. I'll watch the SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, and I'll watch the CONUS pattern to make judgements on the severe/tornado season. I did this last year and I think I did alright. There were 2 significant cold outbreaks last March, but there were finally some troughs breaking into the west throughout the month... so I was expecting a more-active-than-the-last because of the periodic western trough tendency... but less active than normal because of the 2 cold outbreaks.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Jan 2 2016, 05:50 PM
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Well it'll be interesting to see if meteorological spring kicks off with the 4th March in a row with well below average temperatures in the east.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 2 2016, 09:37 PM
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Based on the pattern we saw in November and December, and assuming we see that carry through in some fashion, I can't imagine 2016 will also go high risk-less.



Though at least a couple events this year ended up being high risk material... but it's easy to say that in hindsight.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 2 2016, 09:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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dtown
post Jan 3 2016, 11:32 AM
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Hi guys,

Mostly a lurker here for several years. So much great info on this site!

Does anyone know what the general pattern is for spring and summer coming off a strong El Nino? Specifically for the mid Atlantic (VA thru PA)? Warm/wet, warm/dry, cool/wet...obviously every year is unique but is there a typical pattern for this situation?

TIA!
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 3 2016, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(dtown @ Jan 3 2016, 11:32 AM) *
Hi guys,

Mostly a lurker here for several years. So much great info on this site!

Does anyone know what the general pattern is for spring and summer coming off a strong El Nino? Specifically for the mid Atlantic (VA thru PA)? Warm/wet, warm/dry, cool/wet...obviously every year is unique but is there a typical pattern for this situation?

TIA!

There's not a big enough sample size to draw conclusions about what's typical for coming off a Nino of this magnitude.

With that in mind...

Spring


Summer


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 5 2016, 11:15 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 5 2016, 08:54 PM) *
The Nuri correlated storm was 982mb... this one was 994mb. Both are rather wimpy for this time of year. But just like the one that correlated to the 2011 Super Outbreak (which was ~948mb in the Bering), they all out-performed what their pressure suggested... just as you said with the bolded.



I was closing on my house the day of the '11 outbreak, actually didn't know the BSR correlation to that.

I would think this Spring would hold a higher severe threat than what was contemplated post Nuri.

I know if at least a couple posts you noted similarities between the '11 outbreak and the '15 924mb.

I really think '11 might be the better analog just because of the typhoon factor.

Time will tell, hope I am wrong but if it happens I just hope it happens in less populated areas.

Will be interesting to follow come March or May
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 5 2016, 11:31 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 5 2016, 11:15 PM) *
I was closing on my house the day of the '11 outbreak, actually didn't know the BSR correlation to that.

I would think this Spring would hold a higher severe threat than what was contemplated post Nuri.

I know if at least a couple posts you noted similarities between the '11 outbreak and the '15 924mb.

I really think '11 might be the better analog just because of the typhoon factor.

Time will tell, hope I am wrong but if it happens I just hope it happens in less populated areas.

Will be interesting to follow come March or May

There's been more than a few non-Typhoon systems in the Bering that I've seen over the past 2 months and thought it would be nasty if we saw that in the spring. That's just a theoretical/hypothetical thing... I don't actually think that's solely a cause for concern about a big outbreak in a few months from now. I'll have to actually see it verify in March/April/May.

By the way... here's the early April 2011 system in the Bering.



If I were told by someone from the future that a historic tornado outbreak/event were to occur in the next 2 years, I'd immediately guess 2017. A great majority of the historic tornado outbreaks that are still commonly referenced happened during a La Nina, +TNI, and -PDO. The oceanic conditions that'll be present in Spring 2016 are gonna be none of those, except for maybe +TNI, which depends on how the Nino collapses. One can certainly still happen, but it's historically not as likely. We'll be in a Nina for Spring 2017, probably +TNI, and maybe -PDO.

Link for that research..

Regarding TNI/Nina: http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAP...ns/1-15/Lee.pdf
Regarding -PDO: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/the-to...ion-connection/

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 5 2016, 11:35 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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kpk33x
post Jan 7 2016, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE(dtown @ Jan 3 2016, 11:32 AM) *
Hi guys,

Mostly a lurker here for several years. So much great info on this site!

Does anyone know what the general pattern is for spring and summer coming off a strong El Nino? Specifically for the mid Atlantic (VA thru PA)? Warm/wet, warm/dry, cool/wet...obviously every year is unique but is there a typical pattern for this situation?

TIA!


2 to go on in memory, coming off strong Ninos
1983 - sluggish spring (cold into April) and wet then turned warm. Hot summer w/ drought
1998 - cool to average spring and wet, turned on a dime to drought in May for the next year. Temperatures moderate in summer.

But two things...I gave a sample size of 2 and all Ninos are not the same.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 18" (thru 3/15)
Season Total to date - 121.25" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 15 2016, 09:50 AM
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New JAMSTEC is in... warm for almost every square inch of North America rolleyes.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Jan 15 2016, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 15 2016, 06:50 AM) *
New JAMSTEC is in... warm for almost every square inch of North America rolleyes.gif


What will JB think? smile.gif
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RobB
post Jan 15 2016, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 15 2016, 09:50 AM) *
New JAMSTEC is in... warm for almost every square inch of North America rolleyes.gif




heck...Warm almost all of the world!
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 15 2016, 01:31 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Jan 15 2016, 11:22 AM) *
What will JB think? smile.gif

Haha... he'll turn to the Brazilian. Snow in Atlanta in May? Seems legit!

To be fair though, he has stated multiple times that the central and east US will turn much warmer as a result of the Nina. He's called for hot and dry summers to return aswell.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 15 2016, 01:34 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 15 2016, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 15 2016, 02:05 PM) *
1/15 12Z NAEFS:

One more month and you can start doing that here Rob laugh.gif smile.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 15 2016, 03:37 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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RobB
post Jan 15 2016, 04:22 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 15 2016, 03:37 PM) *
One more month and you can start doing that here Rob laugh.gif smile.gif



Ooops...LOL...Thanks CV!
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 22 2016, 05:30 PM
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I'm growing more excited about this severe season as we're still seeing a tendency for western troughs and severe weather events well into the winter. The eastern troughs we've seen this month don't really concern me for 2 reasons. One is that it wasn't the same kind of pattern we've gotten used to: that being the blocking western ridge/eastern trough. No storms were allowed in through the west. This month, the west hasn't been that warm (cooler than average in most places), and wet. Reason two is that even the winter of 2010-11 had bouts of brief Arctic air intrusions.

I've read from many different sources (well, 3), for a variety of valid reasons, that the end of February and start to March will be quite cold. The fact that all 3 are calling for this certainly convinces me that it's a real possibility. But hopefully we'll switch away from that in a hurry as the stratosphere undergoes its final warming and the PV dies.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 22 2016, 05:37 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Jan 22 2016, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 22 2016, 05:30 PM) *
I've read from many different sources (well, 3), for a variety of valid reasons, that the end of February and start to March will be quite cold. The fact that all 3 are calling for this certainly convinces me that it's a real possibility. But hopefully we'll switch away from that in a hurry as the stratosphere undergoes its final warming and the PV dies.


I've read that from three sources as well: JB, Cohen & DS. Are they the same three you heard it from?

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 22 2016, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jan 22 2016, 05:58 PM) *
I've read that from three sources as well: JB, Cohen & DS. Are they the same three you heard it from?

Cohen, Gary Lezak, Josh (OSNW3)

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 22 2016, 06:45 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Jan 22 2016, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 22 2016, 06:45 PM) *
Cohen, Gary Lezak, Josh (OSNW3)


One outta three ain't bad.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 26 2016, 02:45 PM
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http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/n...il-2016-outlook

Me gusta


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Jan 26 2016, 07:15 PM
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Steve D

"
The weakening El Nino will have significant impacts on the weather pattern the rest of the winter and much of the Spring. The Sub Tropical jet stream is expected to remain rather active which will lead to plenty of short waves to move through the southern tier of the nation and potentially phase with the Polar jet stream to produce major winter storms this February and potentially through mid March.

In the Spring, this weather pattern will likely produce an active severe thunderstorm threat from the southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic as sub tropical troughs drive through the United States. The pattern should remain active until ENSO changes to a La Nina state this Summer.

My preliminary thoughts on La Nina this summer is that this one should be very strong and west based. A strong west based La Nina typically leads to a very hot Summer pattern, especially in July and August. In addition to a hot Summer, look for an increase in tropical activity with likely on of the most active hurricane seasons we have seen since 2006. An interesting period of weather is certainly on the way."


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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