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> Long Range Spring 2016 Outlooks and Discussions, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
jdrenken
post Jan 27 2016, 05:07 PM
Post #21




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Indeed
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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


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WeatherMonger
post Jan 28 2016, 10:59 PM
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laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif Had to do copy and paste rather than a bunch of screen captures.

He really went out on a limb with details laugh.gif


http://headypattern.com


From yesterday's blog

QUOTE
I am working on my long range forecast for you through severe weather season. I will post that on my next blog


Today's (next)blog


Keep in mind, this is for

QUOTE
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.


I started with the first mention of severe weather....

QUOTE
Plus long range forecast through severe weather season.

April 3rd-9th: Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday. Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th: Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday. Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday. Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd: Warm with thunderstorms to start the week. Some of these could be strong to severe. Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th: Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week. Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th: Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week. Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions. We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th: A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week. Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st: Warm temperatures through the first half of the week. Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat. Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 29 2016, 12:30 AM
Post #23




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Forecasting that some storms could be strong/severe in the heart of tornado season in the heart of tornado alley... whew, really going out on a limb laugh.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 29 2016, 01:03 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 29 2016, 09:29 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 28 2016, 11:30 PM) *
Forecasting that some storms could be strong/severe in the heart of tornado season in the heart of tornado alley... whew, really going out on a limb laugh.gif

Exactly laugh.gif

I bet it verifies at 85% though
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OSNW3
post Jan 29 2016, 10:24 AM
Post #25




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 29 2016, 08:29 AM) *
Exactly laugh.gif

I bet it verifies at 85% though


Read those forecasts from DH and compare to the RRWT COU charts.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 29 2016, 10:35 AM
Post #26




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You know spring is around the corner when drylines start showing up again



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Jan 29 2016, 12:52 PM
Post #27




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Meh.....SSW should keep March under wraps. 4th colder than average March in a row on the way. Whatevs....Used to it.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 29 2016, 01:00 PM
Post #28




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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jan 29 2016, 12:52 PM) *
Meh.....SSW should keep March under wraps. 4th colder than average March in a row on the way. Whatevs....Used to it.

JB and Gary Lezak both say the start to March should be cold, but the spring will be warm to very warm. Again, even JB said this.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Jan 29 2016, 01:15 PM
Post #29




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 29 2016, 01:00 PM) *
JB and Gary Lezak both say the start to March should be cold, but the spring will be warm to very warm. Again, even JB said this.


JB usually nails the overall late winter pattern every year. He hypes the *bleep* out of it to the point where it's hard to tell where his forecasting ends and his fantasies begin, but overall he usually does nail the pattern down pretty well. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't cling start clinging to one model come the end of February that shows snow in Atlanta in mid April or something.
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OSNW3
post Jan 29 2016, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 29 2016, 12:00 PM) *
JB and Gary Lezak both say the start to March should be cold, but the spring will be warm to very warm. Again, even JB said this.


Woo!


Source.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 29 2016, 01:33 PM
Post #31




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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jan 29 2016, 01:15 PM) *
JB usually nails the overall late winter pattern every year. He hypes the *bleep* out of it to the point where it's hard to tell where his forecasting ends and his fantasies begin, but overall he usually does nail the pattern down pretty well. Just don't be surprised if he doesn't cling start clinging to one model come the end of February that shows snow in Atlanta in mid April or something.

I won't forget last year when he said April 15-May 30 would be much more active for severe weather than normal back in mid-March. It was around this time when I determined that we're gonna have an active late spring due to the very warm GoM temps, new tendency for western troughs, etc. But JB called out some dates and said it's a similar pattern to 2011. The pattern didn't turn out to be similar, but it was definitely its own beast.




I'm gonna try what I did last year again this year. Gonna see if the pattern in March can be an indicator for the rest of the severe season by looking at the GoM temps and general pattern in the month. Based on what we've seen through this winter, the severe season could be nasty at times... but we'll see what happens in March first.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 29 2016, 01:33 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post Jan 29 2016, 02:13 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 29 2016, 12:33 PM) *
I'm gonna try what I did last year again this year. Gonna see if the pattern in March can be an indicator for the rest of the severe season by looking at the GoM temps and general pattern in the month. Based on what we've seen through this winter, the severe season could be nasty at times... but we'll see what happens in March first.


Sweet. Looking forward to it.


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snowsux
post Jan 29 2016, 10:35 PM
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On a side note concerning spring, I've never understood why the snow and cold lovers grow a big, fat rubbery one every year over the prospect of a late winter SSW and delay to spring. 999 times out of 1000, all they're gonna get is soggy, rainy, chilly, grey days. I can also set my watch to the 1993 references every time March rolls around also. Just because that storm occurred in March didn't mean that the month really had anything to do with it, yet every coastal threat 300 hours out on the models gets cited as having that "potential". Yeah, memories are short. That snow was gone in two days. All it did was kill a bunch of people and cause a couple billion in damages. Aside from the few days before and after that storm, the month was relatively normal to above normal in the east in terms of temperatures.
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jdrenken
post Jan 30 2016, 09:21 AM
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Testing: Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule
QUOTE
We generated a small time sample of potential Spring severe weather pattern based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule, also know as the Organic Forecasting technique called the "trifecta". To simplify the write-up the RRWT hindsight dates are linked to their corresponding H5 map. For the daily SPC storm reports go here and change the date in the url. The projection dates are listed below the chart and are bolded.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 31 2016, 02:53 PM
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I'm geeking out right now. SPC made a "violent tornado outbreak" page, where they have all the violent tornado outbreaks since 1875, and they have a whole bunch of indices and parameters you can look at on the page. Also a bunch of other data. I've been itching to look more into the parameters of violent tornado days.... especially the 4/3/74 outbreak.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/

I know what I'm doing for the rest of the afternoon wink.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 31 2016, 02:53 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 31 2016, 07:43 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 29 2016, 12:30 AM) *
Forecasting that some storms could be strong/severe in the heart of tornado season in the heart of tornado alley... whew, really going out on a limb laugh.gif

wow....really?

Yea that sure is going wayyyyy out on that limb aren't they dry.gif
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Crimson_Sprite
post Jan 31 2016, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jan 29 2016, 10:35 PM) *
On a side note concerning spring, I've never understood why the snow and cold lovers grow a big, fat rubbery one every year over the prospect of a late winter SSW and delay to spring. 999 times out of 1000, all they're gonna get is soggy, rainy, chilly, grey days. I can also set my watch to the 1993 references every time March rolls around also. Just because that storm occurred in March didn't mean that the month really had anything to do with it, yet every coastal threat 300 hours out on the models gets cited as having that "potential". Yeah, memories are short. That snow was gone in two days. All it did was kill a bunch of people and cause a couple billion in damages. Aside from the few days before and after that storm, the month was relatively normal to above normal in the east in terms of temperatures.



Hey I just gotta say that I am a total snow lover but absolutely CANT STAND back loaded winters and *bleep* snow in March. I HATE late Springs as well and weep openly if I got snow in mid March. So not all of us are fans af "snow at all costs" laugh.gif wink.gif give me total snow dec-fed and then March is Spring and lookin to warmth.


--------------------
Winter of the Shadow Snow 2012-2013 - - - - 30” total
Winter of Sub-Atomic Snow 2013-2014 - - - - 57.5” total
Winter of the Butterface Storms 2014-2015 - 69.25” total
Winter of Poo 2015-2016 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -9.25" total
Winter of Late Awakening (Beelzeblizzard) 2016-2017 --49" total


Storms 2017 Storm severity based on the Crimson Scale 1-5
May 1st -STWR- night storm, downed trees and powerlines, very close bright lightning -3
May 18 - STWR- evening storm, downed trees, spectacular lightning, no power 24hrs -4.5
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 31 2016, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(Crimson_Sprite @ Jan 31 2016, 08:16 PM) *
Hey I just gotta say that I am a total snow lover but absolutely CANT STAND back loaded winters and *bleep* snow in March. I HATE late Springs as well and weep openly if I got snow in mid March. So not all of us are fans af "snow at all costs" laugh.gif wink.gif give me total snow dec-fed and then March is Spring and lookin to warmth.

I can totally agree with you buddy
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 2 2016, 09:48 AM
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Sounds good

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-april/55085474



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 2 2016, 09:56 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 2 2016, 09:48 AM) *
Sounds good

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-april/55085474

]http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02011805_2016-u.s.-spring-highlights.jpg[/img]

Not for a spring wedding in Destin FL, ohmy.gif. Omg my fiancé would kill me after I assured her May was historically one of Destin's driest months of the whole year

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Feb 2 2016, 09:56 AM
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