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> Long Range Winter 2016-2017 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
VASnowstormHunte...
post Feb 21 2016, 11:08 PM
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I am a few days early with this one, but decided to post it now since I will be unable to do it on the day I typically start it (March 1).

As with previous years, I always find it nice to send off the past winter (meteorological speaking) with the opening of a new thread for the next one.

Here's to hopefully a great 2016-2017 winter season in your backyard! biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

As always, we can use this thread to discuss our thoughts, the trends and any outlooks/forecasts... both professional and amateur.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 21 2016, 11:14 PM
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Should be a La Nina... typically a more active winter for the OV. Looking forward to it.

QUOTE
New NOAA forecast suggests current El Niño will fade fast, and be replaced by a strong cooling La Niña this year


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/19/new-...nina-this-year/



JAMSTEC February update



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 5 (Last: 3/27/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Feb 22 2016, 01:02 AM
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QUOTE
MJVentrice: This is the first time I'm looking at a 1-year forecast. Throwing it on here for the credibility test: January 2017 https://t.co/ihVU69R02s

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/701414592925270018

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Feb 22 2016, 01:02 AM
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snowsux
post Feb 22 2016, 07:33 PM
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I can't wait to watch this thread evolve beside a palm tree.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 24 2016, 09:35 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 21 2016, 11:14 PM) *
Should be a La Nina... typically a more active winter for the OV. Looking forward to it.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/19/new-...nina-this-year/



JAMSTEC February update


I can't recall.....what's a solid "La Nina" generally do for the winter months here in the coastal Mid-Atl?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 24 2016, 01:33 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 24 2016, 09:35 AM) *
I can't recall.....what's a solid "La Nina" generally do for the winter months here in the coastal Mid-Atl?

Typically front-loaded winter. Typically evolves into a strong SE ridge, favoring the storm track west of the OV.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 5 (Last: 3/27/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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DanaJames
post Feb 25 2016, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 24 2016, 10:35 AM) *
I can't recall.....what's a solid "La Nina" generally do for the winter months here in the coastal Mid-Atl?


I'm not sure what they're predicting at this point but if I recall from years past, here in the Mid-Atlantic, we'd do better with a weak La Nina. I believe that was what the winter of 1995-96 was when we got around 60" of snow. If it's strong, it would probably be as bad as what we looked at this winter. Sometimes I think I'd love to just be at Neutral every winter and take our chances. Hope this finds you well, buddy.
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JDClapper
post Feb 25 2016, 06:02 PM
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I created these awhile ago and posted in the La Nina thread.. but, using strong La Nina years.. here's how it's panned out, in the past.

December
Attached File  strongnina_dec_p.png ( 419.19K ) Number of downloads: 10

Attached File  strongnina_dec_t.png ( 422.82K ) Number of downloads: 5


January
Attached File  strongnina_jan_p.png ( 416.54K ) Number of downloads: 5

Attached File  strongnina_jan_t.png ( 407.28K ) Number of downloads: 5


February
Attached File  strongnina_feb_p.png ( 406.04K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  strongnina_feb_t.png ( 415.92K ) Number of downloads: 4


I'll check out moderate and weak some other time.. but, had these available, so posting here smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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jdrenken
post Feb 25 2016, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 25 2016, 05:02 PM) *
I created these awhile ago and posted in the La Nina thread.. but, using strong La Nina years.. here's how it's panned out, in the past.

December
Attached File  strongnina_dec_p.png ( 419.19K ) Number of downloads: 10

Attached File  strongnina_dec_t.png ( 422.82K ) Number of downloads: 5


January
Attached File  strongnina_jan_p.png ( 416.54K ) Number of downloads: 5

Attached File  strongnina_jan_t.png ( 407.28K ) Number of downloads: 5


February
Attached File  strongnina_feb_p.png ( 406.04K ) Number of downloads: 4

Attached File  strongnina_feb_t.png ( 415.92K ) Number of downloads: 4


I'll check out moderate and weak some other time.. but, had these available, so posting here smile.gif


Hopefully Alan from Raleigh weather, aka...americanwx, develops the same analog system that he created for the El Niño!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 26 2016, 02:26 AM
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If we do have a strong La Nina, it'd be our luck to get one of the 3 types of strong La Ninas we've not yet seen


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 5 (Last: 3/27/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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bingobobbo
post Feb 27 2016, 02:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 24 2016, 01:33 PM) *
Typically front-loaded winter. Typically evolves into a strong SE ridge, favoring the storm track west of the OV.



A lot of winters following a Presidential election seem to be front-loaded in upstate NY:
1968-69 (big snow on 11/12/68 and very little the rest of the way)
1972-73 Lots of snow from Oct. 18-Dec. 18 but very little afterward
1976-77 Very cold October-January; moderating from Feb on
1980-81 Big mid-November snow; frigid Dec/Jan; milder from Feb on
2000-01 November-December very cold; milder Jan-Feb (before a return to cold and snow in Mar)
2008-09 Most of our snow fell by January 28--very little after that date; March our least snowy ever (replacing 1969)



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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 29 2016, 02:04 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 24 2016, 01:33 PM) *
Typically front-loaded winter. Typically evolves into a strong SE ridge, favoring the storm track west of the OV.

Thanks buddy....sorry for the tardy reply wink.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 29 2016, 02:05 AM
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QUOTE(DanaJames @ Feb 25 2016, 05:52 PM) *
I'm not sure what they're predicting at this point but if I recall from years past, here in the Mid-Atlantic, we'd do better with a weak La Nina. I believe that was what the winter of 1995-96 was when we got around 60" of snow. If it's strong, it would probably be as bad as what we looked at this winter. Sometimes I think I'd love to just be at Neutral every winter and take our chances. Hope this finds you well, buddy.

Howd'y neighbor.....good to hear from ya!

Yea I'm with ya, I'd prefer a neutral setting my self.
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SnowMan11
post Mar 1 2016, 01:01 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 24 2016, 01:33 PM) *
Typically front-loaded winter. Typically evolves into a strong SE ridge, favoring the storm track west of the OV.


2010-2011 I had 60 inches by Feb 1 in a la nina.


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stuffradio
post Mar 1 2016, 01:02 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 29 2016, 10:01 PM) *
2010-2011 I had 60 inches by Feb 1 in a la nina.

In 2008, I actually had ~60" or so in one month. That's an extreme year for me. I wish I had more similar years, but I'd take 10" over the nothing I've had the past 4 years.
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jdrenken
post Mar 1 2016, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 1 2016, 12:01 AM) *
2010-2011 I had 60 inches by Feb 1 in a la nina.


What is your typical La Niña look like though. The key word in Cliche's post is typical.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Mar 1 2016, 01:32 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Feb 27 2016, 01:57 PM) *
A lot of winters following a Presidential election seem to be front-loaded in upstate NY:
1968-69 (big snow on 11/12/68 and very little the rest of the way)
1972-73 Lots of snow from Oct. 18-Dec. 18 but very little afterward
1976-77 Very cold October-January; moderating from Feb on
1980-81 Big mid-November snow; frigid Dec/Jan; milder from Feb on
2000-01 November-December very cold; milder Jan-Feb (before a return to cold and snow in Mar)
2008-09 Most of our snow fell by January 28--very little after that date; March our least snowy ever (replacing 1969)


Interesting way to look at it. laugh.gif

Can we create an index based on Presidential election years?


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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grace
post Mar 4 2016, 12:50 AM
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Let's have some fun:

1. ALL WINTERS FOLLOWING SUPER EL NINO WINTERS
:

500mb


TEMPS



BY THE MONTH

DEC
wub.gif

JAN


FEB








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grace
post Mar 4 2016, 12:51 AM
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2. EVERY FOLLOWING WINTER WITHOUT EXCEPTION HAD LA NINA CONDITIONS

**That's pretty remarkable! If we do not transition to La Nina it would be the first time on record that a super El Nino wasn't followed by La Nina conditions.


1878-79 - strong east based La Nina

1889-90 - strong hybrid La Nina

1897-98 - strong west based La Nina

1903-04 - weak east based La Nina

1906-07 - weak east based La Nina

1966-67 - weak east based La Nina

1973-74 - strong east based La Nina

1983-84 - strong central based La Nina

1998-99 - strong central based La Nina

**East based by far the most common.**



EAST BASED
1878-79
1903-04
1906-07
1966-67
1973-74


500mb


TEMPS




HYBRID
1889-90

500mb


TEMPS



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grace
post Mar 4 2016, 12:51 AM
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CENTRAL BASED
1983-84
1998-99


500mb


TEMPS




WEST BASED
1897-98

500mb


TEMPS


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