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> Long Range Winter 2016-2017 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
StL weatherjunki...
post May 21 2016, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ May 15 2016, 03:18 PM) *
May JAMSTEC SST Anomaly Forecast for DJF:

+PDO to continue to persist...

La Nina/PDO combined influences on past US precip, from Gershunov, Barnett, and Cayan 1999 (EOS)


[attachment=291781:La_Nina_and_PDO.gif]

Also interesting to note. since 1940, there has never been a moderate or strong La Nina with +PDO conditions.

There have been four Weak La Nina/+PDO years:

- 1983/84 (A post Strong-El Nino year)
- 1984/85
- 1995/96
- 2000/01

Here's how SST's looked those years...

Note the North Atlantic cold pool in these years and models show that continuing into this winter.

Very nice post! The precip image above really supports my thinking for this upcoming winter: mostly great lakes cutters. Since 2016 is by far the warmest year on record I think this winter will start more slowly than 1983, but the first major GLC of the season will set the stage for the remainder of the year. The 83/84 analog suggests there will be a false spring in February before winter returns for March.

My thinking for the upcoming season is very much a copy of the 1983-1984 season, which had split flow over the west coast. Much like the past year subtropical ridging will persist over western Canada with subtropical troughing prevailing across the southern Rockies near the 4-corners region. This pattern favors warm SE US and cold eastern Canada/NE US, precip wise your image above matches up with my thinking quite well.

Hopefully I am right so that my final Missouri winter ends up being above average for a change

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: May 21 2016, 01:02 PM


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Gnutella
post May 22 2016, 01:15 AM
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Can I have a *bleep*ing front-loaded winter for a change? mad.gif
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stuffradio
post May 23 2016, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ May 21 2016, 11:15 PM) *
Can I have a *bleep*ing front-loaded winter for a change? mad.gif

Can I have any snow for a change? I'll never know. smile.gif This Winter and last winter combined I got less than an inch of snow probably.

This post has been edited by stuffradio: May 23 2016, 12:37 PM
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bretmw1019
post May 24 2016, 06:06 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ May 21 2016, 02:00 PM) *
Very nice post! The precip image above really supports my thinking for this upcoming winter: mostly great lakes cutters. Since 2016 is by far the warmest year on record I think this winter will start more slowly than 1983, but the first major GLC of the season will set the stage for the remainder of the year. The 83/84 analog suggests there will be a false spring in February before winter returns for March.

My thinking for the upcoming season is very much a copy of the 1983-1984 season, which had split flow over the west coast. Much like the past year subtropical ridging will persist over western Canada with subtropical troughing prevailing across the southern Rockies near the 4-corners region. This pattern favors warm SE US and cold eastern Canada/NE US, precip wise your image above matches up with my thinking quite well.

Hopefully I am right so that my final Missouri winter ends up being above average for a change


I think Missouri is overdue for a nice winter wink.gif

Also... FWIW... Dec, Jan and Feb of 1983/84

Attached File  Dec_1983.png ( 412.43K ) Number of downloads: 9

Attached File  Jan_1984.png ( 436.37K ) Number of downloads: 7

Attached File  Feb_1984.png ( 406.57K ) Number of downloads: 7
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JDClapper
post May 24 2016, 07:09 PM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ May 24 2016, 07:06 PM) *
I think Missouri is overdue for a nice winter wink.gif

Also... FWIW... Dec, Jan and Feb of 1983/84

Attached File  Dec_1983.png ( 412.43K ) Number of downloads: 9

Attached File  Jan_1984.png ( 436.37K ) Number of downloads: 7

Attached File  Feb_1984.png ( 406.57K ) Number of downloads: 7


Interesting. Would be strange to experience a front loaded winter. Been several years.


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Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

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snowsux
post May 25 2016, 12:05 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ May 21 2016, 02:00 PM) *
The 83/84 analog suggests there will be a false spring in February before winter returns for March.


In the east, maybe. I've read several articles anticipating a return of the RRR status quo in the west.
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thenewbigmack
post May 26 2016, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ May 24 2016, 10:05 PM) *
In the east, maybe. I've read several articles anticipating a return of the RRR status quo in the west.

Not following what RRR stands for?
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2016, 12:14 PM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ May 26 2016, 01:01 PM) *
Not following what RRR stands for?

Ridiculously resilient ridge. It's a term that's a couple years old. I'd argue that we're seeing the RRR's death, slowly but surely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 26 2016, 12:19 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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thenewbigmack
post May 26 2016, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 26 2016, 10:14 AM) *
Ridiculously resilient ridge. It's a term that's a couple years old. I'd argue that we're seeing the RRR's death, slowly but surely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ridiculously_Resilient_Ridge

Ah, thank you. I think some people are being a bit too biased honestly. The tropics are going through a total transformation, and the atmosphere will follow suit shortly there after. Only a matter of time before the PDO flips as well.

With the MJO briefly in the Western Hemisphere, we will see a temporary return to +PNA/Nino conditions, which will be short lived. With the next round of IO/MT forcing on It's heals, easterlies will return to the tropics and the SST's will continue to drop. Along with a return to -PNA/Nina conditions.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 26 2016, 01:22 PM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ May 26 2016, 01:54 PM) *
Ah, thank you. I think some people are being a bit too biased honestly. The tropics are going through a total transformation, and the atmosphere will follow suit shortly there after. Only a matter of time before the PDO flips as well.

With the MJO briefly in the Western Hemisphere, we will see a temporary return to +PNA/Nino conditions, which will be short lived. With the next round of IO/MT forcing on It's heals, easterlies will return to the tropics and the SST's will continue to drop. Along with a return to -PNA/Nina conditions.

Agreed. We've seen more tendencies for western troughs over the past 7 months (since November) than we've seen since 2012.

As long as we get a Nina this winter, I don't see how the RRR is going to reign again. Especially if it's not a weak Nina.

Someone on this forum, I forget who, did some research and found that there's never been a moderate or strong Nina coupled with +PDO. I'd imagine that's not just a coincidence.

People were talking last year about the warm blob sticking around into this past winter and "creating" the RRR. A group of us on this forum spoke against that, because we knew the Aleutian low was gonna be massive and would likely kill the blob. And it did.

I think the same thing is true for a higher end Nina (i.e., moderate or strong). It pumps a big Aleutian ridge which favors a -PNA, just as a big Aleutian trough favors a +PNA.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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thenewbigmack
post May 26 2016, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 26 2016, 11:22 AM) *
Agreed. We've seen more tendencies for western troughs over the past 7 months (since November) than we've seen since 2012.

As long as we get a Nina this winter, I don't see how the RRR is going to reign again. Especially if it's not a weak Nina.

Someone on this forum, I forget who, did some research and found that there's never been a moderate or strong Nina coupled with +PDO. I'd imagine that's not just a coincidence.

People were talking last year about the warm blob sticking around into this past winter and "creating" the RRR. A group of us on this forum spoke against that, because we knew the Aleutian low was gonna be massive and would likely kill the blob. And it did.

I think the same thing is true for a higher end Nina (i.e., moderate or strong). It pumps a big Aleutian ridge which favors a -PNA, just as a big Aleutian trough favors a +PNA.


Exactly. As the Walker Cell shifts into a Nina state, there will be some back and forth action. Once the cell strengthens however, the greatest upward motion/divergence aloft will be over the Indian Ocean/Maritime, versus the Pacific during a Nino. This will make it difficult for any forcing to occur outside this region, as the upper levels won't support it. When we see forcing over the Pacific, a lot of time the mid lat low is analogous to the area of convection, placing in in the Central Pac/Aleutians, hence the West Coast ridge. Place that forcing over the IO/MT region and we see the ridge pumped up much further west, resulting in West Coast troughing.
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thenewbigmack
post May 26 2016, 04:13 PM
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Also, to those screaming the PDO argument, the PDO is simply a reflector, not a driver. It's reflecting a Nino environment, and will continue to do so until this Nina cell locks in. That argument needs to be thrown out smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 22 2016, 10:39 AM
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Accuweather going with weak La Nina. I agree with that at this point

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...6-2017/58306249



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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alczervik
post Jun 22 2016, 11:44 AM
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At least we had one good winter (2015-2016)

My only question is how many degrees below normal are we going to average for the time period of Dec through April?

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NorEaster07
post Jun 22 2016, 02:11 PM
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Edit:: Looks like ClicheVortex beat me to it... I will leave this up too.


https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/...689578569347072

Attached File  tweet16.jpg ( 133.74K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jun 22 2016, 02:12 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 22 2016, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 22 2016, 03:11 PM) *
Edit:: Looks like ClicheVortex beat me to it... I will leave this up too.
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/...689578569347072

Attached File  tweet16.jpg ( 133.74K ) Number of downloads: 3

Not sure I agree with their statement about big east coast storms in the second half of winter at this point. I'm surely no expert on ENSO, but we aren't certain about the intensity of the Nina... nonetheless where it's gonna be based. That also goes against basic ENSO climatology... because just as Ninos are typically backloaded winters, Ninas are typically frontloaded winters.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 22 2016, 05:35 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Jun 22 2016, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 22 2016, 06:34 PM) *
Not sure I agree with their statement about big east coast storms in the second half of winter at this point. I'm surely no expert on ENSO, but we aren't certain about the intensity of the Nina... nonetheless where it's gonna be based. That also goes against basic ENSO climatology... because just as Ninos are typically backloaded winters, Ninas are typically frontloaded winters.


Got a coin? I call .... heads. Lol

Quick google image search for La Nina Winter pattern graphics I came across this from 2011.


http://addins.wrex.com/blogs/weather/2011/...upcoming-winter

Attached File  Screenshot_20160622_184118.png ( 959.64K ) Number of downloads: 3
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 22 2016, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 22 2016, 06:43 PM) *
Got a coin? I call .... heads. Lol

Quick google image search for La Nina Winter pattern graphics I came across this from 2011.
http://addins.wrex.com/blogs/weather/2011/...upcoming-winter

Attached File  Screenshot_20160622_184118.png ( 959.64K ) Number of downloads: 3

Yeah that was just a cold winter all the way through. Not sure what the deal with that was.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Weather4LA
post Jun 22 2016, 07:38 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 22 2016, 10:39 AM) *
Accuweather going with weak La Nina. I agree with that at this point

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...6-2017/58306249


My question is with the dry weather in the southern US, is it a mild kind of dry or a cold kind of dry. This far south, dry and sunny weather usually makes for warmer weather, with less clouds allowing full insolation, but dry also defines Arctic airmasses too. I've read a Nina winter brings the warm SE ridge. Is that so?


--------------------
"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 22 2016, 11:07 PM
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QUOTE(Weather4LA @ Jun 22 2016, 08:38 PM) *
My question is with the dry weather in the southern US, is it a mild kind of dry or a cold kind of dry. This far south, dry and sunny weather usually makes for warmer weather, with less clouds allowing full insolation, but dry also defines Arctic airmasses too. I've read a Nina winter brings the warm SE ridge. Is that so?

Typically, yes. Accuweather went almost completely with Nina climatology except for the dryness extending into the OV and the Great Lakes being cold.



As JB says... the only thing typical about an ENSO event is being atypical. 2011-12 was a moderate Nina and cold almost all across the US but very dry in the south - much like Accuweather's. But as soon as February ended, the SE ridge took over and didn't let go for almost 2 years.




Then 2011-12 was a weak Nina and we all know what happened there... no need to post those images.

Big difference between this coming winter and 2010-11/2011-12 is the PDO.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 22 2016, 11:10 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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