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> Long Range Fall 2016 Forecast & Discussion, El Nino to La Nina? Hurricanes? Post your fall info here!
kpk33x
post May 5 2016, 12:41 PM
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How about some love for Autumn? The summer discussion is active and folks are posting in the winter 2016-17 forum. Let's not forget about September-November!

The last time we transitioned quickly from a strong Nino to a Nina was in the fall of 1998. Living in Maryland at the time, a relatively normal (within a degree or so) summer 1998 was followed by a warm September, a mild October, and a normal November (before a warm December). Calendar 1998 was one of three years with every month's average 40F or above at BWI...the other years being 1949 and 1932.

The outstanding detail of the fall of 1998 was the developing dryness. The first several months of 1998 were a bit on the wet side. Precip started to tail off in July, and the fall months were very dry. Only 3.46" of rain fell from 9/1 to 11/30, the driest fall since 1930 which was the driest year on record when only half the normal rainfall was recorded for the year. Drought was developing, with only January 1999 above normal all the way until September, when Hurricane Floyd and a few other systems ended the drought.

Prior to that, in September 1983 coming off another strong Nino, it was the 4th consecutive month of dryness, but October and November were wet enough to bring autumn precip to normal, while temperatures were maybe a degree above normal for all three months (a warm start in September with some 90s was evened out by a cool spell the last 4-5 days).

In New Hampshire, Fall 1998's temps were similar to the experience at BWI. North Conway temps were a degree or so above normal in September and October while normal in November. But precip was well above normal in October, and although there were a couple very dry months mixed in, both 1998 and 1999 annual precip were above normal.
In NH in 1983, a warm September was followed by a normal Oct-Nov. For precip it started dry but October was a little closer to normal, and November was a soaker. Snow did fall in both November 1983 and 1998, but a bit below the average (November snowfall is usually hit or miss here).

Will the autumn of 2016 be different this year than 2015? Last year, hints of leaf change started to show in August but were put on hold by a very warm September. In fact, leaves peaked about a week later (around Oct. 10) than they did in 2014. October was near normal overall with a mid month cold snap (and half inch of snow) evened out by a couple warm periods, while November was again warm.

Not having central AC and not being a fan of hot weather to begin with, I will be looking forward to the Fall!


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 3
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
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stuffradio
post May 5 2016, 06:08 PM
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What's interesting is that the autumn of 2015 was quite wet for the PNW. I don't remember how wet it was further south in OR/CA though. Will autumn 2016 continue the wet pattern of 2015, or will this Nino pattern persist further meaning it remains dry on the west coast instead of the wet it was last year?
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NorEaster07
post Jul 13 2016, 01:19 PM
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Latest CFS Monthly Temp Departures...

September


October



November

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NewEnglander
post Jul 15 2016, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jul 13 2016, 02:19 PM) *
Latest CFS Monthly Temp Departures...

September


October



November



Doesn't look too warm for New England? maybe a cooler Fall than some previous Falls?
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ErieWx
post Jul 24 2016, 12:47 PM
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...nge/fxus05.html
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kpk33x
post Aug 4 2016, 08:42 AM
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AccuWeather's fall forecast came out the other day:


QUOTE
2016 US fall forecast: Northeast to dodge season's chill; Severe drought to amplify western wildfire threat

Jillian MacMath

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

August 4, 2016; 8:12 AM ET

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As the weather pattern transitions to La Niņa this fall, warm weather is predicted across much of the eastern United States. Meanwhile, developing dryness and worsening drought conditions will grip the majority of the western U.S. The Northwest may mark the only exception where cooler air will rule as a result of frequent showers.




















JUMP TO: Warm, dry weather to dominate fall across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic| Southeast to remain on alert for tropical impact into peak of Atlantic hurricane season | Severe weather to follow early fall warmth in the Midwest | Cold to hold off until late fall for central US | Cool, showery weather in store for Northwest | Lack of rain to amplify drought in West

Warm, dry weather to dominate fall across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic


Those anticipating the turn to cool fall weather will have to wait longer than usual this year as a warm, dry start to the season is in store for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.

Typical cool shots will hit the region at times in October and November, but prolonged chilly weather will wait until late in the fall for most areas.

"As far as Philadelphia and New York City, I would expect that you're not going to see many arctic shots or cold shots to spoil your plans here in the fall," AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

"The only days that really may be cool are those that are wet. If the season follows our predictions, we're not expecting too many of those coming up," he said.

The warm, dry conditions will lead to a promising harvest season for farmers and excellent weather for those attending fall festivals. Leaf peepers may get the short end of the stick, however.

"Fall foliage looks like it may be hurting just a bit because of the current dry conditions going on and then what we expect in September and October...," Pastelok said. "Those leaves, they may not be as vibrant and they may not stay on the trees very long."

Southeast to remain on alert for tropical impact into peak of Atlantic hurricane season


Opposite of areas farther north, the Southeast will experience largely beneficial wet weather early.

Northern and southern edges of the region, in South Florida and the Tennessee Valley, may be the dry pockets this fall, while rain spreads over the rest of the area.

An active weather pattern in October may allow severe storms to form across Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina at times.

"Fronts and any tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, that will all contribute to help out and break this short-term drought that they're in right now," Pastelok said.

Experts predict the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season will yield a normal or slightly above-normal number of storms. However, regardless of season totals, one or two more impacts may be in store for the U.S.



Severe weather to follow early fall warmth in the Midwest


The beginning of fall may seem like an extension of the summer season for much of the Midwest, as heat waves grip the region into September.

"Places like Chicago, St. Louis and Des Moines, they still have chances to touch 90 degrees or better for a few days in early September," Pastelok said.

Severe storms will also intrude on the season for some areas, including in St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri.

"Let me stress, though, this is not going to be frequent...," he said. "I think there will be some breaks in between [storms]..."

Cold to hold off until late fall for central US


Warm and dry conditions will extend over the northern Plains into October, before a quick turnaround to fall-like weather.

Cold shots are predicted to arrive by the middle to late November, just in time for Thanksgiving. The cold air, paired with a likely transition to a La Niņa weather pattern, could allow snow to fall in late November.

"The more snow we see, the colder the end of November and into early December will be," Pastelok said.

In the southern Plains, a large area of developing dryness will promote hot weather into the fall. The exception may be in eastern Texas, where tropical moisture will help to lower temperatures.

Despite the temperature divide across the region, severe weather is unlikely to pose a major risk into fall.

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Cool, showery weather in store for Northwest


Cool, showery weather will define the fall across the Northwest.

Periods of wet weather, sometimes lasting for a few weeks at a time, will allow cooler air to become entrenched across the region. However, there's hope for those looking to enjoy some early fall days outdoors.

"You're still going to have some warm days. So, I wouldn't cancel out the Northwest as far as outdoor plans go. Just be cautious that there could be some [wet] periods that go on for a couple of weeks."

Snow could build up in the highest elevations of the Northwest as soon as late September or early October this year, slightly faster than normal.

Lack of rain to amplify drought in West


After El Niņo failed to bring sufficient rain and snow to California and the West over the winter season, drought conditions will continue to raise the risk for devastating wildfires.

Heading into the peak of the wildfire season, which stretches into September, a lack of moisture will allow dry vegetation to serve as fuel for new and ongoing blazes.

"It's bad now and it's only going to get worse," Pastelok said.

Additionally, Santa Ana winds will fan the flames of existing fires, helping them to spread.

Dryness will also continue in the Southwest, despite some early rainfall from the monsoon.

"We still may have another spurt of moisture here and there into early September in eastern parts of Utah, but other than that, those areas will start to dry out as well by middle fall," Pastelok said.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 3
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 21 2016, 11:17 PM
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This thread is hoppin' rolleyes.gif

Understandable, though I'm looking forward to the secondary tornado season.

Tropopause in Michigan is located around 9km above ground (300mb) tonight under this trough. It brought aspects of fall into late summer. Gotta love seasonal transitions.





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 21 2016, 11:19 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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RobB
post Aug 22 2016, 07:10 AM
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Figured I would post this here.

IMBY this morning, the temperature dropped to 56.3 degrees. Felt really nice. It is nice to have drier fall like air in the area no matter how short lived.
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goblue96
post Aug 22 2016, 09:45 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Aug 22 2016, 08:10 AM) *
Figured I would post this here.

IMBY this morning, the temperature dropped to 56.3 degrees. Felt really nice. It is nice to have drier fall like air in the area no matter how short lived.


Still below 70 degrees at my house. Forecast to only go up to 75.


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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RobB
post Aug 22 2016, 09:48 AM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Aug 22 2016, 10:45 AM) *
Still below 70 degrees at my house. Forecast to only go up to 75.



Very nice. Enjoy it! 72.6 IMBY with a DP of 55. Haze free sun!


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alczervik
post Aug 22 2016, 11:10 AM
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I am personally hoping the heat and humidity hang for as long as possible. The cool morning felt nice but it a reminder that winter is coming.
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NorEaster07
post Aug 22 2016, 11:35 AM
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Went to the farm to pick some Pears and Apples this morning in the mist of being inside the warmest summer on record and the most consecutive lows of 70°!

It's been warm, its been relentlessly humid, its been 2 weeks since getting "that break" so this morning felt good! Finally!

Btw.. Lynman Orchards in Middlefield said they didnt have peaches. The crop got destroyed during a February arctic blast. Wow. 1st time in 100yrs. The warm December didn't help either.



And of course like a sign from above... the first.. I believe Sugar Maple. Only saw 1 of 2 in entire 1 hour drive.

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goblue96
post Aug 22 2016, 02:57 PM
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Cut the grass in the middle of the afternoon because I could. Still not above 75 degrees. Taking my daughter to the drive-in theater tonight too. Should be in the upper 50s/low 60s.


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 22 2016, 09:14 PM
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Happy Fall? Euro has a Caribbean-born 950mb Hurricane striking the Panhandle of Florida to start September

**take with a grain of salt right now because no other models are showing it. Clearly, conditions are favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, as Accuweather et al. suggested a week ago and models are now showing. Like this though, over a week out? Unlikely.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 22 2016, 09:52 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 23 2016, 12:20 AM
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Way out there, but I find this amusing. Cross-polar flow for the west coast due to an immense Aleutian ridge. What an amplified pattern.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Aug 23 2016, 12:26 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Aug 22 2016, 12:10 PM) *
I am personally hoping the heat and humidity hang for as long as possible. The cool morning felt nice but it a reminder that winter is coming.


And The Blob with it, no doubt. I believe a woeful winter awaits us here in the east. We must pay at least twofold for last year's mild season. Ours was a little milder than yours though, if memory serves.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 23 2016, 12:33 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 22 2016, 10:14 PM) *
Happy Fall? Euro has a Caribbean-born 950mb Hurricane striking the Panhandle of Florida to start September

**take with a grain of salt right now because no other models are showing it. Clearly, conditions are favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, as Accuweather et al. suggested a week ago and models are now showing. Like this though, over a week out? Unlikely.

Looks like WPC is taking 12z Euro almost verbatim





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 23 2016, 12:34 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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alczervik
post Aug 23 2016, 05:46 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Aug 23 2016, 01:26 AM) *
And The Blob with it, no doubt. I believe a woeful winter awaits us here in the east. We must pay at least twofold for last year's mild season. Ours was a little milder than yours though, if memory serves.


Our winter was amazing last year.
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kpk33x
post Aug 23 2016, 07:42 AM
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Yesterday afternoon was the first fall-feeling day of the late summer. The humidity was dropping, a nice breeze was blowing, and temperatures were only in the upper 60s in the late afternoon. We dropped to a low of around 50, felt nice and crisp this morning. I look forward to more of this weather!


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 3
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
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Gnutella
post Aug 23 2016, 08:37 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Aug 23 2016, 08:42 AM) *
Yesterday afternoon was the first fall-feeling day of the late summer. The humidity was dropping, a nice breeze was blowing, and temperatures were only in the upper 60s in the late afternoon. We dropped to a low of around 50, felt nice and crisp this morning. I look forward to more of this weather!


We don't get mornings like that down here until about the end of September, typically. It's always a treat when it happens, though. I enjoy sitting outside under a clear, haze-free sky at twilight, and feeling a nibble in the air every time the wind blows. Not yet cool enough for a sweatshirt, but slightly cooler than before, and markedly less humid. Very refreshing, especially for somebody with low heat tolerance like me.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 22 2016, 12:17 AM) *
Understandable, though I'm looking forward to the secondary tornado season.


I'm not, especially since it's happened at Christmastime twice in the last four years. sad.gif
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