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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
snowsux
post Mar 19 2017, 06:55 PM
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JB mentioned something about a snowstorm here in western PA early next week. Huh...Can't find anything to support it.
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jdrenken
post Mar 20 2017, 12:16 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 19 2017, 01:50 PM) *
3/19 12Z NAEFS:


I see an interesting pattern setting up for the late spring into summer. This is going to stink in one breath (heat) and might create some fireworks (NW Flow events) in another.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 12:37 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 20 2017, 01:16 AM) *
I see an interesting pattern setting up for the late spring into summer. This is going to stink in one breath (heat) and might create some fireworks (NW Flow events) in another.

Not nearly on the same level as summer NW flow events, but it's worth noting it already is creating some fireworks... in March. You can see precip riding around the rim of the upper-level ridge. We have an MCS in Michigan with surface temps in the 30's, then the first of 2 rounds of strong storms is forming back in Iowa.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 20 2017, 12:42 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Mar 20 2017, 02:02 AM
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What Happened With The BSR?!


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 06:59 AM
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Been waiting for this day for awhile

Winter is officially dead wub.gif
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 20 2017, 07:02 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 20 2017, 06:59 AM) *
Been waiting for this day for awhile

Winter is officially dead wub.gif

looking that way, except for the places that have already been destroyed this whole year.

Now is that inevitable month of the entire year waiting period where its too warm to snow (not much different than all winter) and not warm enough to be enjoyable. Forecast will call for 40s-50s with dreariness or low 60s with rain.
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RobB
post Mar 20 2017, 07:27 AM
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3/20 0Z NAEFS and GEFS:




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Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 110.56K ) Number of downloads: 2
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alczervik
post Mar 20 2017, 08:52 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 20 2017, 01:16 AM) *
I see an interesting pattern setting up for the late spring into summer. This is going to stink in one breath (heat) and might create some fireworks (NW Flow events) in another.


With this pattern is it a constant NW flow?
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NorEaster07
post Mar 20 2017, 10:20 AM
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4" took 3 days to Melt in January.
4" took 7 days in March. Still 4" left on ground.


March 20, 2017

Weird.



Strange.



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NorEaster07
post Mar 20 2017, 11:56 AM
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Couple more..

March 20, 2017, local area. Stamford, CT





Poor school kids. Usually see them playing in the playground back there this time of year. There's a baseball field there too.





Beautiful day in the 40s with a breeze but what does grass look like?





Poor wildlife. Birds are suffering. I can hear and see them. No ground food! Glad I shoveled a path





This one roaming the streets!





This one found a little grassy area. Poor things. When is this all gonna melt?? Its not like it was 10"+ or its January. Gees.


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kpk33x
post Mar 20 2017, 12:06 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 20 2017, 08:02 AM) *
looking that way, except for the places that have already been destroyed this whole year.

Now is that inevitable month of the entire year waiting period where its too warm to snow (not much different than all winter) and not warm enough to be enjoyable. Forecast will call for 40s-50s with dreariness or low 60s with rain.


That's April here. What a dreary month. I'm escaping for 10 days to go to Florida.

We have had snow constantly on the ground since early December (with a close call for melting at the end of January). It is fairly typical for roughly 4 months of steady snow cover into early/mid April. Last year we lost our snow by mid March which exacerbated dryness to come in the spring and summer. Barring additional snow I think we'll hold onto it here until the first week of April...the bottom 8-10" is a rock-hard glacier and will melt slower than the powdery stuff on top.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 3
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
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NorEaster07
post Mar 20 2017, 12:16 PM
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Snow cover east of the Appalachians can be seen from the Satellite loop. What's not moving is snow on ground. March 20, 2017 9am-1pm loop


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RobB
post Mar 20 2017, 01:54 PM
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3/20 12Z NAEFS and GEFS:



Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 83.02K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 114.8K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 109.72K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 109.91K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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NorEaster07
post Mar 20 2017, 02:01 PM
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Surprised?

2nd most consecutive number of days with 5"+ on ground after March 1st at CT the coast.. Only 1 other yr did.

7th most consecutive days 3"+ on ground for NYC. Only 6 other years had more days since 1912.



And.....

After March 13th there was only 1 yr that had more days in a row with 3"+ on ground in NYC.
2017 2nd most. IMPRESSIVE


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 02:58 PM
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Latest trimonthly TNI value is 1.097. This is ahead of 2008 (0.850), behind 2011 (1.530), and way behind 1974 (1.970)


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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kpk33x
post Mar 20 2017, 03:35 PM
Post #376




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MJ correct me if I am wrong, but Spring up here seems to be:

March - old crusty, dirty snow season
April - mud season
May 1-10 - everything leafs out at once
May 11-31 - black fly season


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 2
June - 2

Season TD - 4. Hottest this season = 95F

# of thunderstorm days: 3
Severe events/description:
5/18 - severe T-storm, brief heavy rain/wind on warned storm
5/31 - severe T-storm, heavy rain/wind on warned storm (hail to our south)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 04:38 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 20 2017, 03:58 PM) *
Latest trimonthly TNI value is 1.097. This is ahead of 2008 (0.850), behind 2011 (1.530), and way behind 1974 (1.970)

Furthermore... latest ERTAF is in. High confidence in above average tornadoes in week 2 (3/26-4/1), low confidence in above average tornadoes in week 3 (4/2-4/8)

http://weather.cod.edu/~vgensini/ertaf/


QUOTE
Forecast synopsis:

Week 2: Dynamic ensemble models, large scale signals, and statistical analogs all continue to suggest an active period of severe weather for Week 2, with low relative AAM continuing to decrease throughout the period.

Week 3: We have less confidence in the Week 3 period, but we will introduce AA activity at this time due to favorable AAM state. There is low confidence at this time due to competing MJO signals from the ECMWF and GFS ensemble data. We are weighting our forecast toward statistical analogs and persistence.


There's also this

QUOTE
Tornado Risk Amping Up This Week and Beyond

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...week-and-beyond

QUOTE
Major pattern shift will usher in severe weather
Marginally severe storms are possible across parts of Indiana and Illinois on Monday and the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, as a spoke of energy rotates around a upper-level low sweeping through eastern Canada. The bigger event will come later this week as the upper-level pattern shifts back toward a Pacific-dominated regime. Several inches of rain and major mountain snows are headed for parts of California, Oregon, and Washington as one storm swings through on Tuesday/Wednesday and a stronger one around Friday/Saturday.

The first upper-level wave in this sequence will reach the Great Plains by late Thursday. Low-level moisture will be rapidly returning from the Gulf, but it’s not yet clear whether enough instability will be on hand to support severe weather. If there is, the focal point would be along a strong dryline expected to be over the High Plains of western KS/OK/TX by late Thursday. A more robust severe threat appears likely for Friday over eastern TX/OK into AR/LA, and on Saturday across parts of MS/AL/GA/FL, as the system marches east into more-unstable air. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined both regions with a 15% likelihood of severe weather for Friday and Saturday. I’d expect those odds to rise as the timing and locations become clearer through the week.

The next multi-day round of severe weather will likely erupt with the second wave in the series, in tandem with the gradual establishment of a upper-level trough in the western U.S. Models are struggling with the evolution of these features, although recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF models tend to agree on a pattern that would favor severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains of TX/OK for at least a day or two early next week.


QUOTE
Extending severe weather outlooks to three weeks: Year 3
Meteorologists in a multi-institution effort based at the College of DuPage have embarked on their third year of providing generalized guidance on the likelihood of U.S. severe weather up to three weeks in advance. The Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF) are released each Monday, featuring outlooks for week 2 (the week beginning the following Monday) and week 3. For each forecast week, ERTAF indicates whether the likelihood of U.S. tornadoes is above, near, or below the climatological average, together with a confidence rating (high, medium, or low).

The technique is based on atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), which relates to the pace at which momentum imparted by Earth’s spin is being transferred to higher latitudes (see Figure 4 below). Gensini and colleagues employ an AAM-related index called the global wind oscillation (GWO), which is broken into eight phases similar to the daily Madden-Julian oscillation index. When AAM is relatively low, we’re more likely to see upper-level troughs in the U.S. West and ridging in the Southeast, a favorable setup for springtime severe weather.



Gensini and colleague Alan Marinaro (Northern Illinois University) demonstrated the utility of their approach in a 2015 Monthly Weather Review paper. That same year, they introduced the ERTAF, which performed very well: 10 of 16 two-week outlooks, and 10 of 15 three-week outlooks, correctly specified whether activity would be above, below, or near the climatological norm for that week (with “normal” defined as between 75% and 125% of the weekly average number of tornadoes). The forecasts were a bit more challenging in 2016, but 6 of the 13 two-week outlooks and 5 of 12 three-week outlooks were on target, and only 4 of the 25 outlooks erred by more than 50% (e.g., by calling for above-average activity when below-average activity occurred, or vice versa). The ERTAF website includes all of the verification statistics for 2015, 2016, and 2017 thus far, based on SPC preliminary tornado totals.

For the week beginning March 26, ERTAF’s six forecasters are calling for an above-average likelihood of tornadoes with high confidence. “We all agreed week 2 is going to be above average. It was a slam dunk,” Gensini told me. The current week-3 outlook, valid April 2-8, is also for above-average activity but with low confidence. “At that range, we’re using primarily statistical analogs, but you only have the realm of what’s been historically observed. Week 2 is where we can couple the statistical and dynamical approach. In terms of subseasonal forecasting, this is really low-hanging fruit.”


Guidance based on 105 analogs of the GEFS run

Days 9-11 surface temp anomaly


% of analogs with at least 1 severe weather report


Same thing except for days 12-14




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 2 (Last: 6/16/17)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/17/17)
Slight risks: 8 (Last: 6/18/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 20 2017, 05:38 PM) *
Furthermore... latest ERTAF is in. High confidence in above average tornadoes in week 2 (3/26-4/1), low confidence in above average tornadoes in week 3 (4/2-4/8)

http://weather.cod.edu/~vgensini/ertaf/
There's also this
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...week-and-beyond
Guidance based on 105 analogs of the GEFS run

Days 9-11 surface temp anomaly


% of analogs with at least 1 severe weather report


Same thing except for days 12-14




Yea was noticing that in the future/LR of GFS the hot spot looks to be texas to Kansas region as lows eject out from Cali and the SW. Here is to the annual march/april snow events along the front range as well.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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snowsux
post Mar 20 2017, 05:38 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 20 2017, 12:56 PM) *
Couple more..

March 20, 2017, local area. Stamford, CT





Poor school kids. Usually see them playing in the playground back there this time of year. There's a baseball field there too.





Beautiful day in the 40s with a breeze but what does grass look like?





Poor wildlife. Birds are suffering. I can hear and see them. No ground food! Glad I shoveled a path





This one roaming the streets!





This one found a little grassy area. Poor things. When is this all gonna melt?? Its not like it was 10"+ or its January. Gees.




Looks like that snow is compacted pretty well, so it's essentially white ice at this point. You either need about 3 days above freezing (day AND night), or about 2 rainy days to eradicate that mess.
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snowsux
post Mar 20 2017, 06:04 PM
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I keep seeing 2011 getting thrown around. Spring of 2011 sucked a fat one here. It rained almost everyday for 2 months. I was out in central PA mid-April that year, and new rivers had formed in the fields. Please tell me that's not the kinda *bleep* we're gonna be dealing with again this year, cos that was ridiculous.
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