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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
NorEaster07
post Feb 23 2017, 07:46 AM
Post #41




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GFS6z data for NYC.


Just when I thought the mid levels would stay above freezing, nope. Normal is -3°C though but still.

Negative teens and 20s coming?? Snowstorm around March 6-8th timeframe?


568DAM to 498DAM. lolol




--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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NorEaster07
post Feb 24 2017, 06:33 PM
Post #42




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Euro 850mb temps Saturday 4th. Spring is over?



Here was the 850mb temps this morning Feb 24th. +10C airmass was nice while it lasted.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 24 2017, 06:33 PM


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 25 2017, 03:47 AM
Post #43




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Best looking EML of the year (so far) goes to...



FYI, there was a supercell <100 miles to the west of the sounding location.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 25 2017, 03:55 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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jdrenken
post Feb 25 2017, 12:46 PM
Post #44




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Not bad...

R+1 R+2 obviously will perform better here.
(rMultivariate 1 uses the present oscillation multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rMultivariate 2 uses the previous oscillation multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rMultivariate 1 + 2 represents the analogs of the two methods blended together.)


BSR


GFS


--------------------
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RobB
post Feb 25 2017, 12:54 PM
Post #45




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I'll post these in both Spring and Winter long range thread until March 1st.

2/25 12Z GEFS...Not shockingly has backed off day 11 to 15 cold


Attached File(s)
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 112.82K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 108.08K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 106.87K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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RobB
post Feb 25 2017, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE
LarryCosgrove‏@LarryCosgrove 4m4 minutes ago

GFS. GGEM series, almost on cue, have discarded any chance at anything more than transient cold shots in the Midwest and Northeast.
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jdrenken
post Feb 25 2017, 03:14 PM
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Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Looks Familiar


--------------------
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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Feb 25 2017, 03:15 PM
Post #48




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2/25 12Z NAEFS:


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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 08:40 AM
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2/26 0Z NAEFS and GEFS:



Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 70.64K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 112.92K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 108.57K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 110.12K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 08:46 AM
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2/26 0Z 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN looks quite zonal..
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jdrenken
post Feb 26 2017, 12:36 PM
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Weatherboy article

QUOTE
If the forecast comes to fruition, such a ridge over the central US will be associated with incredible warmth. Temperatures in the 80s and even 90s will be common for much of the southern and central Plains as well as the adjacent Mississippi valley region. Renken adds that the configuration of this warm air mass will be slightly different, which could have implications for New England. “There is a difference between this upcoming ridge and the one that was associated with all the warmth of the past few weeks as it will be centered a bit further to the west. This will leave the Northeast, particularly New England, more at risk of some backdoor cold fronts that will hold back the warming the more northeast one is.” But with lack of snowcover, anomalously warm southern Canada, and a gradually higher warming sun angle, cold shots for New England likely won’t be too long nor too harsh. “It should only be a matter of time until the warmth from the ridge across the central US is pushed eastward thanks to a continued unusually strong Pacific jet. So while New England may be cooler longer, they too will warm.”, Renken said.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 12:53 PM
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2/26 12Z GEFS:



Attached File(s)
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 112.96K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 109.71K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 109.97K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 01:42 PM
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2/26 12Z NAEFS
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jdrenken
post Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM
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Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton!
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--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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HassayWx2306
post Feb 26 2017, 02:04 PM
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Going green! It's the wonder of nature baby!! he's in it for the money not the science. RIP Bill


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM) *
Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton!

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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM) *
Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton!



Look at the Spotter Network tribute. Lining up their geo-locations to display BP smile.gif
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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 02:23 PM
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It was also a sad passing of Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Stupid drugs sad.gif
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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 03:05 PM
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.
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RobB
post Feb 26 2017, 04:57 PM
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CPC 8 to 14 day outlook:

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snowlover2
post Feb 26 2017, 05:14 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM) *
Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton!

Wow this is a sad day.

RIP Bill.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:1

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:1

# of Tornado Warnings:
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