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> Long Range Summer 2017 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and more
ILStormwatcher
post Jan 31 2017, 03:21 PM
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It's only 141 days from the start of Summer, 121 if you start at Meteorological Summer (June 1st). This Summer has some significance at it could or at least was forecasted at one point that the sea ice in the Arctic would melt entirely for the first time. Seems like we're on pace to be at least close to that.

As for the Northern Hemisphere landmasses particularly North America, parts of Europe, and Russia it could be a very warm to hot one which may rival the notoriously hot and dry Summer of 2012. Looks like some similarities in the pattern are showing up. A mild winter across North America and a weakening La Nina going to ENSO (neutral) with a negative PNA which should shift to neutral to possibly positive by Summer's end. NAO/AO also should be trending positive to neutral. All of these things should help contribute to a very hot and in some place bone dry Summer. Tropics could be interesting however especially mid to late season despite the dissipating Nina.

On the USA looking for the heat dome to build across the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley with several strong to intense MCS traveling on it's perimeter into the Great Lakes down to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with some action across the northern Plains. Long range outlooks are out as to where the strongest drought if it develops will sit, but if one where to go with my ideas it would put Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri into Kansas south into Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma in the thick of it. In these regions several brief intense heatwaves or a few long duration heatwaves are possible with multiple 100+ degree days possible leading to a very high cooling demand along with water due to the heat and building flash drought. Southeast should come out wet from tropical activity and a few stalled backdoor fronts on the eastern side of the mean ridge. West could see some troughing action keeping a lid on temps there and depending on how active the eastern Pacific is; really help the Monsoon and provide at least localized continued drought relief. New England and the Pacific Northwest has a shot at facing a cool but damp Summer.

Also of major importance this Summer is the August 21st Total Solar Eclipse over parts of the lower 48 states namely Oregon to Missouri to South Carolina with a partial visible from most of the rest of North America. Hopefully the ridge dome is massive and strong during that time period so that everyone can catch a good view. Might be a tough one though as there is signs that the pattern could be shifting to a milder and wetter pattern towards the latter half of August into early September.
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NewEnglander
post Feb 16 2017, 10:53 AM
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Summer 2016 New England was in a drought. Do you think New England could see more thunderstorms this year compared to last year? Also, any correlation between an active winter ( a lot of snow) and summer for thunderstorms?
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OSNW3
post Feb 20 2017, 09:21 AM
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24.75 days 90 or better at ORD JJA.


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kpk33x
post Feb 20 2017, 09:33 AM
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Feb 16 2017, 10:53 AM) *
Summer 2016 New England was in a drought. Do you think New England could see more thunderstorms this year compared to last year? Also, any correlation between an active winter ( a lot of snow) and summer for thunderstorms?


I don't want to speak for Stormwatcher but he seems to be hinting at it.

I think the Northeast will tend to get into the "Ring of Fire" battlezone between the fronts and the heat zone. So not as many dry hot days but more humidity. Plus May and June are always good for backdoor cold fronts here. So IMO less chance of drought developing.

EDIT - I don't think there is a correlation between winter snow/temps and # thunderstorms. I think further south there has to be a contrast - widespread warmth or widespread cool will not produce as many T-storms - need the instability that many clashes in air masses provides.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Feb 20 2017, 09:41 AM


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Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 21.5"
April - 15" (thru 4/4)

Season Total to date - 139.75" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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OSNW3
post Feb 20 2017, 10:50 AM
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This post has been edited by OSNW3: Feb 20 2017, 10:56 AM


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ILStormwatcher
post Feb 20 2017, 11:14 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Feb 20 2017, 11:50 AM) *


Love how it peaks around the Eclipse before backing off. Best time for a mega heat dome. Also what's your opinion on Jun and Jul. Looks like it's showing hot as well with a mid July cool down 3-5 days. Also ideas for St. Louis, MO? Your site no longer covers there.
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OSNW3
post Feb 21 2017, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Feb 20 2017, 10:14 AM) *
Love how it peaks around the Eclipse before backing off. Best time for a mega heat dome. Also what's your opinion on Jun and Jul. Looks like it's showing hot as well with a mid July cool down 3-5 days. Also ideas for St. Louis, MO? Your site no longer covers there.


Anything specific you want to see for STL?


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Ahoff
post Feb 22 2017, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Feb 21 2017, 12:04 PM) *
Anything specific you want to see for STL?


Do you have anything for Pittsburgh?
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OSNW3
post Feb 24 2017, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Feb 22 2017, 05:07 PM) *
Do you have anything for Pittsburgh?


Without effort, stations near Pittsburgh that are currently in the database are Cleveland and Columbus Ohio. But with a small amount of effort I could put Pittsburgh in the database.

And for ILStormwatcher, Columbia is in the database, but I could put St. Louis in there if desired.

Let me know.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Feb 24 2017, 02:54 PM


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ILStormwatcher
post Feb 24 2017, 05:02 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Feb 24 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Without effort, stations near Pittsburgh that are currently in the database are Cleveland and Columbus Ohio. But with a small amount of effort I could put Pittsburgh in the database.

And for ILStormwatcher, Columbia is in the database, but I could put St. Louis in there if desired.

Let me know.


Please do, as there's quite a bit of difference between Chicago and Columbia, MO in sensible wx conditions or at least there can be.
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ILStormwatcher
post Feb 24 2017, 05:05 PM
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Local Meteorologist that did a Spring forecast is hinting at a 2012 repeat for Summer without any major details as he was mainly covering March-May, but ended with a nod to Summer 2012 for June through August. Monthly models seem to be on a similar boat with moderate constancy.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 12 2017, 12:20 PM
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.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  1.png ( 213.88K ) Number of downloads: 7
 
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NorEaster07
post Mar 27 2017, 12:12 PM
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https://twitter.com/TDSwx/status/846404118872817664

Attached File  Screenshot_20170327_131139.png ( 1.47MB ) Number of downloads: 10
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kpk33x
post Mar 27 2017, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 27 2017, 01:12 PM) *


(Not saying who is right and who is wrong, especially as today is March 27 and we're over 2 months out from the start)

This is kind of how I envisioned the summer. Pac NW and New England in the ring of fire for rain, over the top of an Omega type setup with the core of the heat centered over the S Central US. This particular depiction is a little aggressive IMO in the east with bringing the battle zone as far SW as the Ohio Valley. We have the Atlantic and the Great Lakes above normal, so to produce this would take an active shift to the west with the ridge and a strong tendency for a NW flow setting up from Ontario/Quebec into New England...and that may force the trough in the Pac NW offshore. I definitely agree with the Pac NW trough tendency, which led me to the Omega visualization.

2012 is getting thrown around - that was more a west to east ridge with only the far northern tier close to normal while everyone baked. The Omega situation is more like 1988. That would be bad for the Plains/Miss Valley so let's hope they stay wet in the spring and maybe not get hammered with a drought.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 21.5"
April - 15" (thru 4/4)

Season Total to date - 139.75" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 27 2017, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 27 2017, 01:12 PM) *

mmm... I like the general idea of that pattern. Would be fun here as long as we aren't too far east.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Mar 29 2017, 12:06 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 27 2017, 04:22 PM) *
mmm... I like the general idea of that pattern. Would be fun here as long as we aren't too far east.


See. It will be a cold and wet summer here, Cliche.
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OSNW3
post Apr 8 2017, 08:28 AM
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The next 3 months (MJJ) will host above average temperatures for #wiwx. An active May (many ups/dns), cool mid June, very warm July.



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