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If you're not enjoying life as much as I am, it's not my fault!
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
57 years old
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Born May-22-1960
On Fb as the WxWiinii
Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Mar 21 2018, 12:49 AM
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My Content
18 Mar 2018
Well, everyone is talking about it already - but using the Spring Awakening storm thread to do so. So, I figured I'd give those posts a place to land
GFS slides along Mason Dixon
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Euro takes I-76 from OH to NJ
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WPC lays out the front to suggest that either is possible, with most probable being a slightly south of Mason Dixon sidle

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On the OFM side of the ledger, we have the EAR

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(this post will be built upon as time allows)
15 Mar 2018
Figured we'd need a place for posters to give their obsx eventually.

Our little "inland diver" system. ( Yes, I know NE is not in this one and it's MA only, but rules are rules)

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17 Feb 2018
Here we go again, looking down the road and seeing signal favorable to more winter woes

This time around, (note: this post was edited by the author to remove erroneous content)

We will need enough cold - check

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Some support from OFM would be nice - check

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Blend in some traditional stuff like spaghetti, for example

Looking blockish

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What about Op runs??

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CFS version

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I do believe we have to "step back" before we can March 4th - howze bout yuze?
9 Feb 2018
Well, since the prior thread was originally for 2/15-16 and not these dates. AND since this is a very historical date range for winter storms in the East, I figured I'd better open a thread for it.

I'm nearly tempted to open a Daytona 500/ P Day thread (first time both have been on same day, since 2011) based solely on that "JD-ism" and some features I've been watching within the ensembles. With a split flow at present, it will be tough for models to get this or the Daytona500 time pd correct.

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OFM via a JD'ism - warm in winter, watch what follows. wink.gif wink.gif

Let's see if we can get this to turn left at all ( like a race car driver might) smile.gif

Daytona 500 on P'day weekend - 15 years anniversary. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-blizzard/45874
23 Jan 2018
OK - Let's start this date range rolling.

" A long long time ago. I can still remember how that forecast used to make me smile. And I knew if I had the chance, that I could make the maps all dance - and make the weenies happy for a while. And February OFM delivers, with every arrow in the quiver, cold new on the doorstep, I had to take the big step....

Current thinking is that we have a strong OFM signal for active winter scenario during this time pd. GFS LR starting to come into time frame and adds "traditional" model support.

First, the Spaghetti (12z GEFS based, from Ewall)

Note the "anomaly" regions of western ridge and Atl heights (LH panel) and the rise in Atl side heights (RH panel)

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BSR H5 (500mb) view, signal of interest E of Tidewater region

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SOI-D shows a corresponding "drop" (with height rise indicated in time period immed prior, as supported by GEFS WR strength)
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EAR has items of interest, again just prior to dates and on start dates

Starred region near AK shows ridging signal (warmth) and region near 50/50 (unicorn - 50/50?)

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And finally, the computer's version of all of this, at this far a lead time

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Verbatim, on the model, not a great outcome. But we know what the models do with this much lead time. So we'll lean on the OFM to pull this off.

Last caveat - bear in mind that forum rules mandate that the MidAtl/NE region be discussed in tandem. So let's try to refrain from commenting too much on individual IMBY impact at this juncture.

And the three dudes I admire most, Black Knight, Clap and a guy named Poc - they took the forecast to the coast, the day the modeling died. And we were singing.....
wink.gif wink.gif
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