Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Feb 28 - Mar 1 Plains/MW/OHV Winter Storm, Medium Range: 3-6 Days
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 24 2014, 01:22 PM
Post #1




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





Nothing too spectacular here, but the storm should at least prompt winter weather advisory criteria impacts in portions of the area. Here's the 12z GFS solution showing the system tracking eastwards into Tennessee
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 24 2014, 01:27 PM
Post #2




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





12z ECM-southern half of MO scores big (3-6'') on the 28-1 storm....especially south central. (this one is about 100 hours out so not quite as LR) northern half see 2-3'' then it dies off as it heads east
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 24 2014, 01:34 PM
Post #3




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





then drops 1-2'' over the most broad area ive ever seen laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 24 2014, 01:40 PM
Post #4




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 24 2014, 02:27 PM) *
12z ECM-southern half of MO scores big (3-6'') on the 28-1 storm....especially south central. (this one is about 100 hours out so not quite as LR) northern half see 2-3'' then it dies off as it heads east

Maybe there will be some localized winter storm warnings as well then smile.gif

After all this storm is associated with a ~140 knot subtropical jet streak and precipitable water values aren't too shabby either. Images below from the 12z GFS
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Feb 24 2014, 02:49 PM
Post #5







Guests








My only chance with this one is higher ratios. I need 4.4" to break the record Dec-Feb.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Feb 24 2014, 03:01 PM
Post #6







Guests








CMC map mentioned above



Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Feb 24 2014, 04:55 PM
Post #7







Guests








QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Feb 24 2014, 03:01 PM) *
CMC map mentioned above

Attached Image


Nice OV doughnut hole. rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 24 2014, 05:53 PM
Post #8




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





Just to stir up some controversy, check out these images from the 18z DGEX

Granted, these bullseyes completely disappear after these two images. However, this should be a warning for those of us in the NE/KS/IA/MO/IL region not to write this system off. There does not appear to be any major mixing issues with this system and ratios could be above the standard 10:1 mark given its clipper-like appearance and track.

Suffice it to say 6+" could happen, perhaps in a similar manner to what the CMC is showing.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 24 2014, 11:06 PM
Post #9




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 24 2014, 06:53 PM) *
Just to stir up some controversy, check out these images from the 18z DGEX

Granted, these bullseyes completely disappear after these two images. However, this should be a warning for those of us in the NE/KS/IA/MO/IL region not to write this system off. There does not appear to be any major mixing issues with this system and ratios could be above the standard 10:1 mark given its clipper-like appearance and track.

Suffice it to say 6+" could happen, perhaps in a similar manner to what the CMC is showing.

I guess there aren't many people on the forums from NE/KS/IA/MO/IL.

For the record this is a March clipper, ie March moisture with February ratios. Somebody in a narrow stripe is going to get lucky and if people don't pay attention to this storm they are going to get surprised!

At this point on the NAM the system is still strengthening as well.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Moneyman
post Feb 24 2014, 11:54 PM
Post #10




EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
***

Group: Member
Posts: 969
Joined: 9-April 13
Member No.: 28,429





GGEM is a nice hit for IA/WI with likely warning type snows in IA and at least high end advisory snows for WI (.4-.5 QPF) with 12:1 ratios or higher
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 25 2014, 09:54 AM
Post #11




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





last frame of the 12z NAM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 25 2014, 10:10 AM
Post #12




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 25 2014, 10:54 AM) *
last frame of the 12z NAM

Not what I was hoping to see for this 12z run, luckily there is time for it to correct south hopefully.

If this storm ends up farther north it will be a signal that the sunday/monday storm is heading somewhat north also imo


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Feb 25 2014, 10:12 AM
Post #13




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,059
Joined: 7-March 04
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 25 2014, 10:10 AM) *
Not what I was hoping to see for this 12z run, luckily there is time for it to correct south hopefully.

If this storm ends up farther north it will be a signal that the sunday/monday storm is heading somewhat north also imo


That certainly would not break my heart for the Sunday/Monday storm as it would bring more plain rain which beats ice (at least its ramifications). If all of us and our families had whole house generators then let there be ice....Otherwise..No smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 25 2014, 10:19 AM
Post #14




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 25 2014, 10:54 AM) *
last frame of the 12z NAM

Additionally, if the NAM is correct about the intensity of this system (which I think it is) thundersnow will be a definite possibility. Hopefully it is not correct with the location, but WOW at the 55 knot low level jet at 18z on Friday (shown below)!
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 25 2014, 03:59 PM
Post #15




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





Well this storm is becoming increasingly messy to try and forecast due to it's interaction with the Polar Vortex. Recent short range models seem to be honing in on a more northerly track as the southern stream is absorbed by the PV lobe tracking eastwards across the northern tier states.

While I am not a fan of this solution playing out since the vast majority of snowfall stays north of me as a result, it sure does make sense. Therefore it is increasingly likely that NE/IA/northern IL/ southern MN and WI are in line for a healthy March clipper.

Given the clipper nature of the system above average ratios seem likely. Given that it is March elevated QPF values for a clipper also seem likely. Combine the these two factors and people near a line from Ohama to Chicago should be prepared for advisory and localized warning criteria snowfall.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
TonyT
post Feb 25 2014, 04:06 PM
Post #16




EF-2 (Frequent Poster)
**

Group: Member
Posts: 393
Joined: 29-January 09
From: Dupage County, IL
Member No.: 17,192





18z NAM showing a nice hit for IA/S.WI/N.IL
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Feb 25 2014, 04:08 PM
Post #17







Guests








Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Feb 25 2014, 04:15 PM
Post #18







Guests








QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
305 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2014

An extended period of very cold conditions will prevail in the
short term as two thermal troughs dig into the area, one tonight
and the other Wed night. Another very cold airmass will begin to
push into the midwest on Saturday and Sunday, but it will be
slowed by the deepening of a southern stream storm system that
will put Illinois in the precip type battle-ground between warm
air surging north and cold air plunging south. Right now, an
extended period overrunning precipitation is projected for next
weekend, as the baroclinic zone stalls out across the area. There
remains a great deal of uncertainty as to where the transition
zones will be between snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. It
appears will have a good shot at seeing some of all of them
periodically next weekend. It is premature to put out snow or ice
totals this early, but just raising awareness that travel may be
significantly impacted depending on which precip type prevails
where.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday.

An axis of high pressure will remain across IL from NW to SE
through tomorrow. Low and mid-level clouds on the southern side of
the ridge axis will continue to cover the southern 2/3rds of our
forecast area this evening. Some light snow will be possible south
of I-70 this evening as channeled vorticity rapidly flows across
that area aided by a 115kt 250mb jet. We have chance PoPs in our
far southern counties to account for light measurable snow this
evening.

Dry and very cold air are expected to push into C IL after
midnight producing clearing skies and bitterly cold conditions. NW
winds should remain high enough to put wind chills down in the -15
to -25F range as lows bottom out in the single digits below zero
across the north. The wind chill advisory is already in place from
midnight to 10 am Wed north of Havana to Lincoln to Danville, and
no changes were needed.

A brief surge of warm air during the day Wednesday will be met
with a reinforcing push of cold air Wed night. Lows Wed night will
be a few deg warmer than Tues night, but another night of steady
northwest winds will put wind chills down in the -15 to -20F range
north of Peoria to Bloomington. Another wind chill advisory may
be needed there.

Highs on Thursday will remain in the single digits across the
north, making it our coldest daytime of this week. Near advisory
wind chills will be possible again Thursday night as lows dip
between zero to -6F in the north.

Friday will see warmer air begin to return to the area ahead of a
developing storm system in the southern Rockies. Light snow is
projected to develop Friday afternoon and continue Friday night as
an inverted surface trough and compact 500mb shortwave move
across IL, generating some lift of the increasingly moist airmass.
We could see up to an inch of snow in some areas through Friday
night when lows remain in the 10 to 25F range.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 25 2014, 04:52 PM
Post #19




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





GFS says whats this north and weak business you speak of Missouri?

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Feb 25 2014, 04:53 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 25 2014, 04:59 PM
Post #20




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





its a one state wonder....those doubting the strength of the HP for the next storm.....look no further



Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V   1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 17th November 2018 - 10:15 AM