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> Feb 19-28th Mid-Atl/NE Warm Spell OBS, Forecasts, discussions and OBS
MaineJay
post Feb 15 2018, 06:46 AM
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Feel free to revel in the warmth, or complain about it. laugh.gif it's all good.

EPS
Attached Image


Decent warm up, likely means posted roads, and maple sap running.

GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential:

* Potential for light snow accumulations Saturday Night through
early Sunday.

* Significant warm up becoming increasingly likely next week
with potential hydro concerns.


Pattern: Persistent pattern of the past few days continues early
this morning with vortex centered just north of Hudson Bay...another
over eastern Asia....with ridging just off the west coast of North
America with early morning water vapor imagery revealing a
shortwave helping re-establish troughing over the southwestern
United States. Deterministic/ensemble guidance remains in strong
agreement in maintaining this pattern through the coming
weekend. Beyond this...there continues to be strong signals for
a significant pattern change with Pacific ridge retrograding
west and building...which allows significant troughing to take
shape over western North America with a weakening/eastward shift
of the Hudson Bay vortex. This favors building heights over
eastern North America with a Bermuda high setup directing deep
southwesterly flow along the eastern seaboard. The flow remains
progressive through this period with no downstream blocking...
so even this warm up does not look to remain with us for very
long
. Primary forecast concerns through the long term forecast
period include potential weekend snowfall...then the focus turns
to deep moisture plume along the eastern flank of developing
longwave trough and how much precipitation potential we have
from this feature.

The Details...


Monday-Monday Night: High pressure will be centered just east of the
region to begin Monday with warm advection and top down saturation
rapidly setting in as the day progresses. Thus...expect an increase
in clouds with rain showers approaching from the south and west
towards evening. T9s moving to around the freezing mark should allow
40s for areas outside of the mountains. Showery precipitation looks
to arrive Monday night and will likely take the form of rain for
most location...with the potential for a mix at the onset over the
mountains although even here temperatures aloft warm rapidly so the
threat will more likely be from pockets of trapped low level
cold air potentially leading to some freezing rain. Mild night
with a non- diurnal trend likely /temps slowly rising through
the night/ with 30s and potentially some 40s south.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Substantial run to run and model to model
differences develop by this time range with the EC/GFS/GGEM /and
their ensemble counterparts/ all favoring a western trough...
but very different evolutions along the eastern flank of this
feature...reducing confidence. There is good confidence in
temperatures moving well above normal for Tuesday and likely
Wednesday with T8s at or above 10C
. PWATs also increase
dramatically as the Gulf of Mexico opens up. Looking at both the
EC EPS and the GEFS...there is certainly enough overlap in
guidance thinking to keep chance PoPs through this period...with
the greatest precipitation potential favored west as current
indications suggest that the best heavy rainfall signal will be
west of our region. Certainly something to keep an eye on for
potential hydro concerns. Otherwise...story will be
temperatures...with good agreement that T9s move to near or
above 10C Tuesday...with some potential to be warmer still on
Wednesday. While this suggests the potential for 60s...have to
be careful with precipitation potential as well as decreasing
confidence... particularly on Wednesday. Still...boosting highs
for both days with 40s north and 50s south is a good starting
point that can be adjusted as confidence grows.


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 28 2018, 07:55 PM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Feb 15 2018, 06:52 AM
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Days 3-7
Min temps

Attached Image


Max

Attached Image



PMDEPD
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EST THU FEB 15 2018

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 18 2018 - 12Z THU FEB 22 2018

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, LOWER TO
MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...


GENERAL FLOW PATTERN/MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO AN INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP, POSITIVELY-TILTED WESTERN
TROUGH BEING PINNED IN PLACE BY PERSISTENT/SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SOUTH OF ALASKA AND ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A BLEND OF THE RECENT ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH THE
GFS/UKMET RUNS OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT WITH A TRANSITION
TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GEFS MEAN BY NEXT WED/THU.
QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST LIE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE SPEED/SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE EAST LATER NEXT WEEK (ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN). GIVEN THE UPSTREAM SPREAD IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC WHICH WILL MODULATE THE TROUGH IN THE WEST, DID
NOT FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER IN THE EAST RESULTING IN A
MIDWAY POSITION BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS VIA THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.


WEATHER IMPACTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACROSS THE WEST, LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL TAKE THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO
1000-2000 FT AND BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO ESPECIALLY MONTANA
(ABOUT 20-40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) BUT ALSO THROUGH MOST OF THE
PAC NW, CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO THE PLAINS. MODEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WEEKEND THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR
WEST/SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHTER SNOW WILL SLIP EASTWARD ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN THE EAST AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND RETURNING WARM FRONT BECOME THE FOCI/OVERRUNNING SURFACE FOR
SOME LOCALLY MODEST TO HEAVY RAIN TUE-THU. ENSEMBLE MEAN AMOUNTS
WERE ALREADY OVER 2-3 INCHES WHICH SUGGESTS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF TWICE
THAT OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD. 12Z GEFS M-CLIMATE QPF VALUES LIE
ABOVE THE 99.5 PERCENTILE FROM NORTHEAST TX TO SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND THE ECMWF EFI (EXTREME FORECAST INDEX) SHOWS VALUES ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE. THE DEGREE OF WEDGING/COLD AIR DAMMING (WHICH
WOULD BE REINFORCED BY ANTICIPATED RAINFALL EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS) REMAINS A QUESTION MARK, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE A
HIGH UPSIDE POTENTIAL NEAR RECORD HIGHS. COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY NEXT THURSDAY OR SO,
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.



FRACASSO/ROTH


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Feb 15 2018, 06:55 AM
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I, for one, will love it. smile.gif

Feeds anther chance for winter storm in time period thereafter. cool.gif

And drives my heating costs down. cool.gif cool.gif
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 15 2018, 07:18 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 15 2018, 06:55 AM) *
I, for one, will love it. smile.gif

Feeds anther chance for winter storm in time period thereafter. cool.gif

And drives my heating costs down. cool.gif cool.gif

Your win is my demise, I'm trying to get to my "back 40" with the machine to start splitting firewood and reload the woodshed in my driveway, this weather while I enjoy it, is the recipe for the perfect mud season. tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 15 2018, 12:35 PM
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64F on the IMBY.

Feels wonderful. I know we're not to the thread dates yet, but I just couldn't help but feel the "ahhhhhh"

Edit - and Woot Hoo, the new putter just showed up at the door smile.gif Watch out RTC - the ad said guaranteed to shave 8 strokes/round. LOL

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 15 2018, 12:38 PM
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LUCC
post Feb 15 2018, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 15 2018, 12:35 PM) *
64F on the IMBY.

Feels wonderful. I know we're not to the thread dates yet, but I just couldn't help but feel the "ahhhhhh"

Edit - and Woot Hoo, the new putter just showed up at the door smile.gif Watch out RTC - the ad said guaranteed to shave 8 strokes/round. LOL

cool.gif
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RobB
post Feb 15 2018, 12:54 PM
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Obviously, I am not in the NE but wanted to post my back yard temps.

63.3 degrees smile.gif
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 15 2018, 01:04 PM
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63.7F.

Just awesome. Go Warmth!
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RobB
post Feb 15 2018, 01:49 PM
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66.1 IMBY now.....Lovely!
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NorEaster07
post Feb 15 2018, 02:23 PM
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Clouds here preventing a quicker boost into the 50s but is 51° now


2pm Temps. Local 80s in GA and SC. 70s up to Maryland! 60s in PA and NJ. Spring time

Attached Image


Next week more of the same pattern

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This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 15 2018, 02:24 PM
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NorEaster07
post Feb 15 2018, 02:44 PM
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Anyone notice the dew points? blink.gif

2pm this afternoon. Dew point departure on left. Actual dew point on right. WOW at the 30+ above normal readings! blink.gif

Source:

Attached Image



2:30pm Dews with Upper Heights. Looks like a flow right from the Pacific.

I checked the mid level flow and it's right from the gulf! That SER is flexing more than I thought.

Attached Image



This mornings dewpoint at 6amCST was "up there" in Southern Ohio (Cincinnati)

The max for the day at 12z is 53.3° and they were at 52.7°. So the dews being experienced in the East is pretty extreme for February.

Source:

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 15 2018, 02:47 PM
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 15 2018, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 15 2018, 02:44 PM) *
Anyone notice the dew points? blink.gif

2pm this afternoon. Dew point departure on left. Actual dew point on right. WOW at the 30+ above normal readings! blink.gif

Source:

2:30pm Dews with Upper Heights. Looks like a flow right from the Pacific.

I checked the mid level flow and it's right from the gulf! That SER is flexing more than I thought.

This mornings dewpoint at 6amCST was "up there" in Southern Ohio (Cincinnati)

The max for the day at 12z is 53.3° and they were at 52.7°. So the dews being experienced in the East is pretty extreme for February.

Source:

Precipitable water values will be 4+ standard deviations above normal tonight. While the surface dew points are certainly coming off the Gulf, the deep moisture throughout the column is clearly linked to the East Pacific Ocean.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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bingobobbo
post Feb 15 2018, 05:43 PM
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If it can't snow, I will enjoy the warmth--anything but endless cloudiness and cold, like 2013 or 2014. I enjoyed today's mild air. However, it is very difficult to get a record high here during the second half of February--with big warm spells in 1954, 1976, 1981, 1997, and of course 2016 (late month) and last year. It can go all the way to 65 tomorrow, 61 on Feb. 21, 69 on Feb. 24, and 61 on the 26th--and none of them would be daily record highs. Yesterday's record was very easy to beat, but the warm air didn't get here soon enough. We have never reached 60 in both January and February of a given winter--there have been some Dec-Jan combos--and Dec-Feb combos--but never Jan-Feb. I believe the closest was last year. If this sort of pattern lasts into the spring, we could reach 70 by mid-March or 80 by mid-April. Or, an extended trough could set in and we could have an unusually late arrival of 70s (or 80s).


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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MaineJay
post Feb 16 2018, 07:58 PM
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GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*** The potential exists for temperatures to approach record
breaking highs on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week ***


12Z model suite in good agreement that low pressure will
intensify rapidly south of the Gulf of Maine Sunday morning,
dropping 20 millibars in 24 hours. However, this southern track
will allow for clearing Sunday after some very early morning
snow Sunday morning as the main shield of snowfall remains out
to sea. Any precipitation Sunday morning will mainly be
confined to the Midcoast region.

High pressure will build in from the Mid Atlantic region on
Sunday into early Monday. This will push a warm front through
the region late Monday as a broad area of mild southwesterly
winds develop at the surface and aloft. The frontal passage may
be associated with scattered showers.

On Tuesday and much of Wednesday, the front will remain north of
our region, allowing very warm H8 temperatures to advect into
the region as high as +14C over southernmost portions of the
forecast area. This will allow for well above normal
temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday. Depending on mixing values,
there is the potential for record breaking highs. The record
high in Portland is 61 degrees on Tuesday (set back in 1994) and
59 degrees on Wednesday (set back in 1953).


The warm front begins to drop south as a cold front late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will then build in
from Canada with cooler, but still seasonably mild temperatures


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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NorEaster07
post Feb 16 2018, 08:30 PM
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Wednesday seems to be the hottest day of the week for SNE

https://digital.weather.gov/?zoom=7&lat...p;tunits=localt

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 16 2018, 08:33 PM
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NorEaster07
post Feb 16 2018, 08:51 PM
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Mt Hol

QUOTE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
800 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018.

The warm front is expected to have lifted north of the area by
Tuesday morning. Tuesday into Tuesday night are expected to be
dry unless a few isolated showers develop if any short wave
vorticity impulses move across the area. Some patchy
fog may develop as well overnight Tuesday, especially for
potions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern/central New Jersey.

The main thing of note for Tuesday will be the warm
temperatures. Temperatures about 20-25+ degrees above normal are
expected as a warm southwest, return flow is expected. Many
places could exceed record highs
, especially if temperatures are
a couple of degrees warmer than forecast.

Wednesday has the potential to be another record warm day as
well, depending on how fast the cold front comes through.
Another potential limiting factor for Tuesday and Wednesday
would be cloud cover
across the area. If we do have more cloud
cover, this could limit warming. There is also a chance of
showers Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front moves
across the area
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NorEaster07
post Feb 17 2018, 03:13 PM
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Tues-Wed could challenge the records..


Attached Image


Here are the record highs for February 20th date

Source:

Attached Image


Feb 21st.

Attached Image


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Removed_Member_PlanetMaster_*
post Feb 17 2018, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 17 2018, 03:13 PM) *
Tues-Wed could challenge the records..


Attached Image

Just your ordinary Bermuda high in February.
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MaineJay
post Feb 18 2018, 05:06 AM
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Tuesday max temps.

Attached Image


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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telejunkie
post Feb 18 2018, 10:10 AM
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Burlington office has hoisted a flood watch for most of their coverage zone
CODE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-182100-
/O.NEW.KBTV.FA.A.0002.180220T0600Z-180222T0000Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.
O/
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-
Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Eastern Rutland-
Including the cities of Massena, Malone, Plattsburgh, Star Lake,
Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Lake Placid, Port Henry,
Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur, Alburgh,
South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington,
Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes,
Bradford, Randolph, Rutland, Springfield, White River Junction,
Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,
East Wallingford, and Killington
241 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flood Watch for all of central and northern Vermont as well as
portions of northern New York

* From late Monday night through Wednesday evening.

* Potentially record warmth combined with periods of rainfall will
lead to rapid snow melt and ice jam breakups, which will
increase the threat for minor to moderate flooding across the
region Tuesday and Wednesday.

* Areas where ice jams remain in place from the mid-January thaw
will be the most susceptible to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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