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> Feb. 21-23 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, CLOSED - OBS thread is open
07150nole
post Feb 21 2009, 09:57 AM
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Doesn't it look like the GFS tried to develop the low quicker off of the nc coast?
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DomNH
post Feb 21 2009, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(yankees @ Feb 21 2009, 10:55 AM) *
How much would you say for me as it looks like i am snow the entire snow. At 30 hours i am a little to close to rain for comfert

Unfortunately you don't get that much QPF, so if you're all snow then I think 2-4'' is a good call.


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Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(yankees @ Feb 21 2009, 09:14 AM) *
Actually compared to 6z run it has less precip with it. But i do not care as it shows a near benchmark track at 36 hours. Surface temps looks borderline for city and its subarbs. Looks like freezing line just over my town and the city. So it looks as if it is a good run for the city and its subarbs. If only it bombs outn earlier. The only probelm is not alot of precip with it onshore by us.


focus on the temps and the track now because the amount of precip can always change and be a nowcast event
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kdubbz
post Feb 21 2009, 10:00 AM
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A snowfall total graphic from a local met in albany, WTENAlbany


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Albany, NY Snow total thus far(as of 1/19/16):5.2in
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yankees
post Feb 21 2009, 10:01 AM
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QUOTE(DS2434 @ Feb 21 2009, 10:57 AM) *
Unfortunately you don't get that much QPF, so if you're all snow then I think 2-4'' is a good call.


Well 2-4 is not bad. Even with my .25 to .50 i only see 2-4 inches. Now only if that bombs out further south. hey i guess it is possible the way the models are trending. Whenever i think of storms like this 06 comes to mind. i was only at one time supposed to see 5-9 and i saw 18 inches. That is why i will not give up hope yet for a bigger storm


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Summer Weather Safety
Summer is here and here are some tips to stay safe

Severe Weather
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml

Heat Safety
http://nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml



09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
14-15 57.5 inches
15-16 28.5 inches
16-17 56 inches
17-18 68.5 inches
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yankees
post Feb 21 2009, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(NJBLIZZARD @ Feb 21 2009, 11:00 AM) *
focus on the temps and the track now because the amount of precip can always change and be a nowcast event


Well that is a good point it looks like temps and track are becoming better on the 12z runs. The other good thing is low bombs out further siuth on each run now it bombs out near cape cod. However the amount of precip really does though depend on track so it does not hurt to be concerend about amount of precip but i do agree it willl be through nowcasting we figure out amounts


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09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
14-15 57.5 inches
15-16 28.5 inches
16-17 56 inches
17-18 68.5 inches
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longislandwx
post Feb 21 2009, 10:08 AM
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what time does the next nam/gfs/eruo come out


--------------------
LONG ISLAND !

Snow Events:

11/8: 0.50"
12/14: 1"
12/27: 16"
1/7: 2.5"
1/9: 0.5"
1/12: 15.8
1/18: 0.6"
1/21: 4"
1/24: 0.5"
1/25: 16.5"


Total snowfall: 57.9"

Ronkonkoma's total accumulated snow fall for 2009-2010 : 63.5 Inches.
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Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 10:11 AM
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QUOTE(kdubbz @ Feb 21 2009, 11:00 AM) *
A snowfall total graphic from a local met in albany, WTENAlbany

thats actually a very good map they have. im impressed a tv-met did that. i would maybe even stick the 4-8 in NNJ and even extreme NEPA. bu ofcourse it cuts off so i can't see what they did
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Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(yankees @ Feb 21 2009, 11:01 AM) *
Well 2-4 is not bad. Even with my .25 to .50 i only see 2-4 inches. Now only if that bombs out further south. hey i guess it is possible the way the models are trending. Whenever i think of storms like this 06 comes to mind. i was only at one time supposed to see 5-9 and i saw 18 inches. That is why i will not give up hope yet for a bigger storm

i can see both of us getting 3-6 inches if this storm goes alright. it developes good for us but doesn't bomb out completely so if we can get it to bomb very quickly which is tough to get, then me, you and all interior NJ, NY, and PA can be looking at a big storm
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Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 10:18 AM
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did anyone else notice how odd the NAM is on the storms position? it goes from NYC to off long (a due east movement) to a sharp left turn up to maine. very odd to me
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SnowMan11
post Feb 21 2009, 10:18 AM
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12z GFS is colder here but it pops the low near the Southern New England coast which is bad for here.


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Anthony
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post Feb 21 2009, 10:23 AM
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well I truly hope this bombs quicker or goes west because Eastern Pa is now just about out of it
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SnowMan11
post Feb 21 2009, 10:23 AM
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12z RGEM

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/rg...bTSLPp06030.gif
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/rg...bTSLPp06036.gif


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Anthony
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SnowMan11
post Feb 21 2009, 10:25 AM
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12z NGM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...gm_pcp_030l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...gm_pcp_036l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...gm_pcp_042l.gif


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Anthony
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DomNH
post Feb 21 2009, 10:26 AM
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12z GFS winds indicate blizzard potential in SNH and a small portion of N MA as winds climb past 30kts.


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hurricane chaser
post Feb 21 2009, 10:26 AM
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for those of you not experienced in modelling, your lucky. however, without biting on any one model, the trends have been to develop secondary a little earlier and slightly further east. thr models which had developed the secondary too far east have trended slightly west. so the track while not perfect, its pretty good, we just need the secondary to explode a little quicker to bring in colder air. i am speaking of tristate area. so it definitely is a nowcast situation in that the models may not get it right until the storm arrives. i can speak for this winter in that this local area has received much more snow than has predicted, so one must wait and see how things pan out. lets face it, we're not in northern new england where its a given its going to snow. but the trend seems to be our friend, and the modelling in general is trying to bring the colder air in before the precip shuts off.


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EASTERN LONG ISLAND


WUNDERGROUND RAPID FIRE UPDATES

chases over the last two years:: isaac, igor, irene, ophelia, sandy
total chases :: 16



SKYWARN spotter Upton, NY
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DomNH
post Feb 21 2009, 10:28 AM
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QUOTE(DS2434 @ Feb 21 2009, 11:26 AM) *
12z GFS winds indicate blizzard potential in SNH and a small portion of N MA as winds climb past 30kts.

Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 21 2009, 10:28 AM
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Just got up, looks to me like the GFS is still a coastal hugger, maybe slighly east of before while the NAM is now practically OTS at least for the MA?


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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yankees
post Feb 21 2009, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 21 2009, 11:25 AM) *


That looks nice has a low just off of long island. Looks pretty nice for the tri state.


--------------------
Summer Weather Safety
Summer is here and here are some tips to stay safe

Severe Weather
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml

Heat Safety
http://nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml



09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
14-15 57.5 inches
15-16 28.5 inches
16-17 56 inches
17-18 68.5 inches
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Removed_Member_NJBLIZZARD_*
post Feb 21 2009, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(hurricane chaser @ Feb 21 2009, 11:26 AM) *
for those of you not experienced in modelling, your lucky. however, without biting on any one model, the trends have been to develop secondary a little earlier and slightly further east. thr models which had developed the secondary too far east have trended slightly west. so the track while not perfect, its pretty good, we just need the secondary to explode a little quicker to bring in colder air. i am speaking of tristate area. so it definitely is a nowcast situation in that the models may not get it right until the storm arrives. i can speak for this winter in that this local area has received much more snow than has predicted, so one must wait and see how things pan out. lets face it, we're not in northern new england where its a given its going to snow. but the trend seems to be our friend, and the modelling in general is trying to bring the colder air in before the precip shuts off.

thats a good post. we know the general area of the low and its geneeral track, but one thing we can't get consistency on is the amount of precip. that is a definite nowcast situation. this can either be a few flurries for the tristae or an all out snow storm.
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