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> Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 20 2018, 07:18 PM
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Well the 2018 season kicks off in about 40 days, and water temps in the gulf are already above normal. With Harvey catching us by surprise last year the gulf should be monitored closely this year. Happy tracking everyone!
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Black05GSR
post May 7 2018, 04:22 PM
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End of the GFS run but caught my eye. Very new to the tropical side of of things, more of a winter storm person but may hang around for the tropical season more this year.




--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 7 2018, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ May 7 2018, 05:22 PM) *
End of the GFS run but caught my eye. Very new to the tropical side of of things, more of a winter storm person but may hang around for the tropical season more this year.




Yea comes from energy/ULL that gives FL rains this weekend and picks up some other feature in the Caribbean leading to this. Not likely to get crazy given time of year and the relatively cooler waters, probably not warm enough yet to sustain more than TS a best low end cat 1 right now if atmos also cooperates but given how the 500 pattern looks it seems very possible.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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snowlover2
post May 9 2018, 02:18 PM
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GFS still showing the system. 12z brings it into the FL PH and moves north and visits the OV.

Attached Image

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# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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stretchct
post May 9 2018, 05:30 PM
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GFS being stubborn. This is from the 6z run. Thought it would raise some eyebrows. 12z was posted by SL2.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PlanetMaster
post May 9 2018, 07:31 PM
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GFS flip flopping where it wants to put this system. Post above shows Fla coast, this run shows La/Miss. Either way it wants a tropical system to make landfall somewhere down South.


Attached Image



Attached Image


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NorEaster07
post May 10 2018, 06:35 AM
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I believe its 6 runs in a row now showing something? Tis the season
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Black05GSR
post May 10 2018, 08:39 AM
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00z GFS kind of stalling it in the Gulf with some decent intensification (especially given the time of year) and delaying a possible landfall. Took about 4-5 days to move the length of Florida.




06z GFS scoots it along faster but still showing same general track. Might be onto something. Caught my eye a few days ago and still is.



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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yamvmax
post May 10 2018, 12:23 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 9 2018, 07:31 PM) *
GFS flip flopping where it wants to put this system. Post above shows Fla coast, this run shows La/Miss. Either way it wants a tropical system to make landfall somewhere down South.


Attached Image



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Watch it ride up the coast, and stall over new England to ruin the memorial weekend. Weather this spring has been horrible.
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clindner00
post May 10 2018, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ May 10 2018, 12:23 PM) *
Watch it ride up the coast, and stall over new England to ruin the memorial weekend. Weather this spring has been horrible.

Kinda like the 12z gfs tried to do? lol

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yamvmax
post May 10 2018, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ May 10 2018, 03:18 PM) *
Kinda like the 12z gfs tried to do? lol

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Yikes! Lol.
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PlanetMaster
post May 10 2018, 09:45 PM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ May 10 2018, 01:23 PM) *
Weather this spring has been horrible.

Tell me about it, was supposed to be a nice Spring week with seasonal temps and it was not. One day was nice the rest had clouds, fog, and drizzle albeit mild just not what was forecasted. Is it to much to ask for a more than one day of sunshine?

As for this system, looks like ridge in the East will break down and a trough/front will pick this up bringing it up the coast as of 18Z




--------------------
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yamvmax
post May 11 2018, 03:32 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ May 10 2018, 09:45 PM) *
Tell me about it, was supposed to be a nice Spring week with seasonal temps and it was not. One day was nice the rest had clouds, fog, and drizzle albeit mild just not what was forecasted. Is it to much to ask for a more than one day of sunshine?

As for this system, looks like ridge in the East will break down and a trough/front will pick this up bringing it up the coast as of 18Z

Wow! Still time for changes but this sucks. Rain this weekend, unsettled next week through next weekend, and then this??
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stretchct
post May 11 2018, 10:03 PM
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Well the GFS isn't on its own now, although its a bit earlier than the ones previously shown.
NAM with weak system


NAVGEM too


GFS


Probably not purely tropical, though not sure what causes the upper low to form.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post May 12 2018, 02:09 PM
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Looks like some rotation is trying to develop west of Tampa, need to keep an eye on the area for now. Pretty much all the models show some sort of vorticity in the area and take it somewhere into the northern gulf coast area.
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Juniorrr
post May 13 2018, 10:13 AM
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Here in Deltona Fl.. going to Tampa then Keys. I dont care for the sun, give me some tropical rains.
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DrewNola
post May 13 2018, 03:37 PM
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pecial Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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This post has been edited by DrewNola: May 13 2018, 04:20 PM
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NorEaster07
post May 13 2018, 05:18 PM
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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/995734843748225026


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konka
post May 13 2018, 06:31 PM
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That late May system has been there for about a week now?
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stretchct
post May 13 2018, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 13 2018, 06:18 PM) *
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/995734843748225026


Attached Image

No Invest out there yet. Even with 40%...


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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