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> Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LP's
stretchct
post May 14 2018, 08:05 AM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





No update from NHC overnight.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 14 2018, 04:18 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

CODE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern
Georgia. Although this system could still acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has
not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT
on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.




This post has been edited by stretchct: May 14 2018, 04:25 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 15 2018, 10:44 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Today's update - down to 10%
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

CODE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern
Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are
becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation. This system, however, will continue to produce locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days
while the low moves generally northward. For more information on
this system, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PlanetMaster
post May 15 2018, 11:45 AM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,626
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





Glad I was down there middle of April, cold front just came through the day I landed and had low 80's and low humid for the week, doesn't get any better than that around the W Palm beach area. Buddy says they are getting waxed with rain, over 4 inches past couple days but they need it bad.


--------------------
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Black05GSR
post May 16 2018, 08:51 AM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 816
Joined: 26-December 12
From: Linden, NJ and Albrightsville, PA (1850ft)
Member No.: 27,529





Still there as of 06z this morning...



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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stretchct
post May 16 2018, 11:13 AM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(Black05GSR @ May 16 2018, 09:51 AM) *
Still there as of 06z this morning...


EPS showing signs now too...albeit much weaker.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Solstice
post May 17 2018, 07:42 AM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,085
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Forgot to post this earlier.



--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post May 17 2018, 11:56 AM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,884
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





We're discussing this storm in the Caribbean thread, that is where it starts from. Not that doing so here is wrong, per se, it's just a bit disconnected.
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stretchct
post May 18 2018, 09:32 AM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 17 2018, 12:56 PM) *
We're discussing this storm in the Caribbean thread, that is where it starts from. Not that doing so here is wrong, per se, it's just a bit disconnected.

Oh thats where everyone is.

edit: oh wait, its just you. Sigh.

laugh.gif


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post May 18 2018, 11:47 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,884
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(stretchct @ May 18 2018, 10:32 AM) *
Oh thats where everyone is.

edit: oh wait, its just you. Sigh.

laugh.gif

Me and MJ that is. We see it developing in the W Caribbean, not the GOM - that's just where it goes after it's already a "thing".

Oh well, (sigh)
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DrewNola
post May 21 2018, 08:46 AM
Post #31




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 264
Joined: 1-September 11
From: New Orleans, Louisiana
Member No.: 25,994





Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough. While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days. For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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