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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 20 2018, 07:19 PM
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Well the 2018 season kicks off in about 40 days, and water temps in the MDR are already pretty warm. Also the ITCZ is already active in early April so we could be in for another long season of wave watching. Happy tracking everyone!
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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 08:11 PM
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MDR is cooler than normal actually and the northern Atlantic is boiling will play a big part of development at least early in the season.

QUOTE
Water temperatures across the ocean's surface in the tropical Atlantic Ocean this spring could be offering a hint for what to expect this hurricane season.

Throughout the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) at the start of May were running nearly a half-degree Celsius below the 1981-2010 average, according to a tweet from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University. The MDR is a swath of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that stretches from Africa's western coast into the Caribbean.

This is a change from last year at this time when warmer-than-average SSTs dominated much of the MDR, helping to fuel last year's active hurricane season.
Should the cooler waters persist into summer, it could suppress tropical storm or hurricane development in this region of the Atlantic Ocean.

This is because of the negative effect the cooler waters have on tropical waves as they move westward across the Atlantic Ocean from Africa. If you recall, tropical waves are one of the seeds for tropical storm and hurricane development.

"In terms of Atlantic SSTs and their impacts on tropical waves, anomalously cool water effectively means less fuel for developing tropical cyclones. It also tends to be associated with higher pressure and drier mid-levels in the atmosphere, which both act to suppress the development of strong thunderstorms which are the building blocks of hurricanes," said Klotzbach in an email to weather.com.

April's cool water temperatures were one of the factors weighed in the hurricane season outlook issued in late April by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Numbers of Atlantic Basin named storms (those that attain at least tropical storm strength), hurricanes and hurricanes of Category 3 or higher intensity forecast by The Weather Company and Colorado State University, compared to the 30-year average (1981-2010).
The Weather Company compared SST anomalies in April for inactive versus active hurricane seasons and found the current pattern more closely represents inactive hurricane seasons. Activity in the Atlantic this hurricane season was forecast by The Weather Company to be near the 1981-2010 average with 13 named storms, six of which are forecast to attain hurricane strength.

Of course, water temperatures in this region of the Atlantic are only one factor that determines how active or inactive a hurricane season will be. It's also possible that this patch of cool water in the tropical Atlantic gradually warms near or above average during the next few months.

Residents of the Caribbean and the coastal United States shouldn't let their guard down or cease preparations for the 2018 hurricane season even if the cooler water promotes a slower hurricane season overall.




Source


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NorEaster07
post Jun 24 2018, 07:17 AM
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All is quiet so far..

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PoconoSnow
post Jul 29 2018, 05:12 PM
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The Bermuda hp in place is stubborn






This anom h5 loop shows the lower heights moving directly into and over the azores. Not good placement to provide fertile EAW 's

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 29 2018, 05:13 PM


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stretchct
post Jul 31 2018, 04:31 PM
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Lower water vapor, or lack thereof.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 31 2018, 04:39 PM
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Or another way to look at it


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 31 2018, 05:02 PM
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Yea pretty slow thus far starting to ramp up climatologically speaking those cooler waters having an impact on the MDR and quite a bit of saharan dust pushing out this year. Speaks to trades being stronger than normal which makes sense as Europe has been just hit with heat this summer. Ridging wants to stay close to Eastern US due to greenland persistent troughing. This looked to be a year of close to US deelopment and so far it hasnt disappointed should manage to get a couple more smaller systems as we move along but gotta watch along the east and GOM regions as the waters are still rather anomalously high. Im thinking something about mid month (august) close to home we may be dealing with a possibility.

From the PWATS imagery Stretcht posted things are flying in the Caribbean right now. Doesn't help when that occurs plus upper levels not conducive to stack the systems so what would form would have probably a quick burst and drop off like we saw with beryl. Need that to slow a bit.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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stretchct
post Aug 10 2018, 07:31 AM
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NHC lowered its outlook. NOAA forecasters lower Atlantic hurricane season prediction

Some tidbits
CODE
Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.

For the entire season, which ends Nov. 30, NOAA predicts a total of 9-13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

To produce the seasonal update, forecasters take several factors into account. El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season. Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes. Storm activity to-date and the most recent model predictions also contribute to this update.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Snow____
post Aug 11 2018, 07:22 PM
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Haven’t seen a season this quiet in a while. Epsiclaly coming off last season. Just goes to show how unpredictable things can truly be.


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DrewNola
post Aug 29 2018, 11:37 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area is forecast to form between the coast of Africa
and the Cabo Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave that
is expected to move off the west coast of Africa late Thursday or
early Friday. Additional development is anticipated, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in those
islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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DrewNola
post Aug 30 2018, 01:23 PM
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1. A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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LUCC
post Sep 6 2018, 10:42 AM
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GFS is interesting for next week, has a recurve prior to smashing into the Mid-Atlantic.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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PlanetMaster
post Sep 6 2018, 03:30 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Sep 6 2018, 11:42 AM) *
GFS is interesting for next week, has a recurve prior to smashing into the Mid-Atlantic.

LUCC there are 200 members posting on Florence at wxdisco what the heck are you doing here?

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Sep 6 2018, 03:30 PM


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Black05GSR
post Sep 6 2018, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Sep 6 2018, 04:30 PM) *
LUCC there are 200 members posting on Florence at wxdisco what the heck are you doing here?


LMAO.



--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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LUCC
post Sep 7 2018, 08:47 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Sep 6 2018, 04:30 PM) *
LUCC there are 200 members posting on Florence at wxdisco what the heck are you doing here?

I can't get to site from work, that whole uncategorized URL thing, I don't go on the puter at home since I am on it for 8 hours at work!! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by LUCC: Sep 7 2018, 08:47 AM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Sep 7 2018, 08:51 AM
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Attached Image


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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PlanetMaster
post Sep 7 2018, 10:36 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Sep 7 2018, 09:47 AM) *
I can't get to site from work, that whole uncategorized URL thing, I don't go on the puter at home since I am on it for 8 hours at work!! laugh.gif

Dont understand why you are still getting that site is fully categorized and that is related on all search engines. Just put Ubuntu on a USB stick and bypass all filtering... laugh.gif


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LUCC
post Sep 7 2018, 11:52 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Sep 7 2018, 11:36 AM) *
Dont understand why you are still getting that site is fully categorized and that is related on all search engines. Just put Ubuntu on a USB stick and bypass all filtering... laugh.gif

rolleyes.gif .

Date: Fri, 07 Sep 2018 12:52:54 EDT
Username: NJ\dcolu@NJ.PFS.NET
Source IP: 172.16.70.205
URL: GET http://www.wxdisco.com/
Category: Uncategorized URLs
Reason: BLOCK-WEBCAT
Notification: WEBCAT


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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PlanetMaster
post Sep 7 2018, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Sep 7 2018, 12:52 PM) *
rolleyes.gif .

Date: Fri, 07 Sep 2018 12:52:54 EDT
Username: NJ\dcolu@NJ.PFS.NET
Source IP: 172.16.70.205
URL: GET http://www.wxdisco.com/
Category: Uncategorized URLs
Reason: BLOCK-WEBCAT
Notification: WEBCAT


Looking into it. Try accessing the site from the IP address
http://144.217.255.188

Did some research and ran a McAfee scan from their global filtering database and we are 100% good. Whatever your company uses for filtering needs to update its database.
https://trustedsource.org/en/feedback/url


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This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Sep 7 2018, 01:30 PM


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LUCC
post Sep 10 2018, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Sep 7 2018, 02:25 PM) *
Looking into it. Try accessing the site from the IP address
http://144.217.255.188

Did some research and ran a McAfee scan from their global filtering database and we are 100% good. Whatever your company uses for filtering needs to update its database.
https://trustedsource.org/en/feedback/url


Attached Image



Attached Image

The IP didn't work:
Based on your organization's access policies, access to this web site ( http://144.217.255.188/ ) has been blocked because the web category "Uncategorized URLs" is not allowed.


I actually put in a request to add www.wxdisco.com to McAfee and have it categorized, that's why it's there. laugh.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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