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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Ron in Miami
post Apr 20 2018, 07:19 PM
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Well the 2018 season kicks off in about 40 days, and water temps in the MDR are already pretty warm. Also the ITCZ is already active in early April so we could be in for another long season of wave watching. Happy tracking everyone!
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PlanetMaster
post May 4 2018, 08:11 PM
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MDR is cooler than normal actually and the northern Atlantic is boiling will play a big part of development at least early in the season.

QUOTE
Water temperatures across the ocean's surface in the tropical Atlantic Ocean this spring could be offering a hint for what to expect this hurricane season.

Throughout the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) at the start of May were running nearly a half-degree Celsius below the 1981-2010 average, according to a tweet from Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University. The MDR is a swath of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that stretches from Africa's western coast into the Caribbean.

This is a change from last year at this time when warmer-than-average SSTs dominated much of the MDR, helping to fuel last year's active hurricane season.
Should the cooler waters persist into summer, it could suppress tropical storm or hurricane development in this region of the Atlantic Ocean.

This is because of the negative effect the cooler waters have on tropical waves as they move westward across the Atlantic Ocean from Africa. If you recall, tropical waves are one of the seeds for tropical storm and hurricane development.

"In terms of Atlantic SSTs and their impacts on tropical waves, anomalously cool water effectively means less fuel for developing tropical cyclones. It also tends to be associated with higher pressure and drier mid-levels in the atmosphere, which both act to suppress the development of strong thunderstorms which are the building blocks of hurricanes," said Klotzbach in an email to weather.com.

April's cool water temperatures were one of the factors weighed in the hurricane season outlook issued in late April by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Numbers of Atlantic Basin named storms (those that attain at least tropical storm strength), hurricanes and hurricanes of Category 3 or higher intensity forecast by The Weather Company and Colorado State University, compared to the 30-year average (1981-2010).
The Weather Company compared SST anomalies in April for inactive versus active hurricane seasons and found the current pattern more closely represents inactive hurricane seasons. Activity in the Atlantic this hurricane season was forecast by The Weather Company to be near the 1981-2010 average with 13 named storms, six of which are forecast to attain hurricane strength.

Of course, water temperatures in this region of the Atlantic are only one factor that determines how active or inactive a hurricane season will be. It's also possible that this patch of cool water in the tropical Atlantic gradually warms near or above average during the next few months.

Residents of the Caribbean and the coastal United States shouldn't let their guard down or cease preparations for the 2018 hurricane season even if the cooler water promotes a slower hurricane season overall.




Source


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NorEaster07
post Jun 24 2018, 07:17 AM
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All is quiet so far..

Attached Image

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PoconoSnow
post Jul 29 2018, 05:12 PM
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The Bermuda hp in place is stubborn






This anom h5 loop shows the lower heights moving directly into and over the azores. Not good placement to provide fertile EAW 's

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 29 2018, 05:13 PM


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stretchct
post Jul 31 2018, 04:31 PM
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Lower water vapor, or lack thereof.


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 31 2018, 04:39 PM
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Or another way to look at it


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 31 2018, 05:02 PM
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Yea pretty slow thus far starting to ramp up climatologically speaking those cooler waters having an impact on the MDR and quite a bit of saharan dust pushing out this year. Speaks to trades being stronger than normal which makes sense as Europe has been just hit with heat this summer. Ridging wants to stay close to Eastern US due to greenland persistent troughing. This looked to be a year of close to US deelopment and so far it hasnt disappointed should manage to get a couple more smaller systems as we move along but gotta watch along the east and GOM regions as the waters are still rather anomalously high. Im thinking something about mid month (august) close to home we may be dealing with a possibility.

From the PWATS imagery Stretcht posted things are flying in the Caribbean right now. Doesn't help when that occurs plus upper levels not conducive to stack the systems so what would form would have probably a quick burst and drop off like we saw with beryl. Need that to slow a bit.


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Weather Observer:
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stretchct
post Aug 10 2018, 07:31 AM
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NHC lowered its outlook. NOAA forecasters lower Atlantic hurricane season prediction

Some tidbits
CODE
Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent.

For the entire season, which ends Nov. 30, NOAA predicts a total of 9-13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

To produce the seasonal update, forecasters take several factors into account. El Nino is now much more likely to develop with enough strength to suppress storm development during the latter part of the season. Today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast to a nearly 70 percent likelihood of El Nino during the hurricane season.

Additionally, sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have remained much cooler than average. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air and increased stability of the atmosphere in the region where storms typically develop will further suppress hurricanes. Storm activity to-date and the most recent model predictions also contribute to this update.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Snow____
post Aug 11 2018, 07:22 PM
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Haven’t seen a season this quiet in a while. Epsiclaly coming off last season. Just goes to show how unpredictable things can truly be.


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