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> Southeast US & Bahamas Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Fronts, Waves, LPs
Ron in Miami
post Apr 20 2018, 07:19 PM
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Well the 2018 season kicks off in about 40 days, and the GFS is showing us a ghost storm around FL and the Bahamas at the start of May O_o;;;;; Looks like this could be another interesting season ahead! Happy tracking everyone!
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Ron in Miami
post Apr 20 2018, 07:22 PM
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So it begins, the GFS ghost train has left the station O_o;;;;;







This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Apr 20 2018, 07:23 PM
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Snow____
post Apr 22 2018, 08:22 PM
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Gives me something interesting to talk about. Let’s get this season started. Maybe even a bit early.


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stretchct
post Jun 13 2018, 12:05 PM
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Interesting feature on the Euro run today.

Thunderstorm complex over Tenn. today drifts south along the GA/AL line Thurs, to the FL panhandle on Fri, goes off the east FL coast on Sun morn.
Then it develops and drifts south Sun into Mon when it heads west and unwinds.
500 mb is also interesting watching that vort track the same,
and then head west.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 13 2018, 12:12 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 13 2018, 01:05 PM) *
Interesting feature on the Euro run today.

Thunderstorm complex over Tenn. today drifts south along the GA/AL line Thurs, to the FL panhandle on Fri, goes off the east FL coast on Sun morn.
Then it develops and drifts south Sun into Mon when it heads west and unwinds.
500 mb is also interesting watching that vort track the same,
and then head west.

TT has a loop of this at 850mb. Surface features are to the west of the 850 vort maxima


This post has been edited by stretchct: Jun 13 2018, 12:14 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Majorpotter
post Jun 18 2018, 08:45 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 13 2018, 01:12 PM) *
TT has a loop of this at 850mb. Surface features are to the west of the 850 vort maxima


I don't think I have ever seen a system move southward like this


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"You have to be a real man or woman to be in Law Enforcement"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 19 2018, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(Majorpotter @ Jun 18 2018, 09:45 AM) *
I don't think I have ever seen a system move southward like this

Ridge seems to be taking a large hit on the east side so flow would help push a complex it seems from the southern Apps off the coast, not your typical progression of a complex of course. Probably wont happen but tells the tale of the continued blocking taking place in the Atlantic over the past couple weeks and months.

Close but no cigar when it came to the Caribbean and GOM system. Still relatively early we tend to not see activity ramp up until july time frame but we will see may be a close home type of year because the Atlantic overall seems fairly tame.


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MaineJay
post Jun 24 2018, 04:19 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jun 13 2018, 01:12 PM) *
TT has a loop of this at 850mb. Surface features are to the west of the 850 vort maxima



ECMWF generates another odd looking system. With the building ridge, I guess, maybe?

Attached Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...62400&fh=72


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Jun 24 2018, 04:29 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 24 2018, 05:19 AM) *
ECMWF generates another odd looking system. With the building ridge, I guess, maybe?

Attached Image

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...62400&fh=72

Hmmmm


Attached Image

Attached Image


Attached Image

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 24 2018, 08:35 AM
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Qdeathstar
post Jul 3 2018, 10:14 PM
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nhc showing some forth of july potential:



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles southeast
of Bermuda has changed little today. However, environmental
conditions are gradually forecast to become more conducive for the
development of a low pressure system by late this week when the
disturbance is expected to be south or southwest of Bermuda. The
system is forecast to move generally northward over the weekend and
begin interacting with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit
any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A vigorous tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over
the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


This post has been edited by Qdeathstar: Jul 3 2018, 10:15 PM


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Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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stretchct
post Jul 23 2018, 08:54 AM
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We had a couple of storms while MJO was in phase 5 - not sure if that is normal. Does phase 7 or 8 help? I think 8 does in the winter, not sure in the summer. Thoughts?


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jul 31 2018, 09:28 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





From the Aug 10 storm thread
QUOTE(stretchct @ Jul 28 2018, 12:42 PM) *
Interesting time frame. The tropics have been awfully quiet the last few weeks, since Beryl refired. This both in the E PAC and ATL. GFS AND Euro EPS have some storms firing up in the E PAC going into this time frame, remarkably similar to the surface depiction.

As far as the 500 mb chart goes, there's this... only 2 days off.

If that pulse continues eastward, maybe we start popping in the Atlantic after this time period.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2332668

EPS in the long run


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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