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> Subtropical Storm Alberto, 05/28 11AM EST - 50 MPH - 994 MB - Movement: N @ 14mph
Ron in Miami
post May 21 2018, 04:35 PM
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AL, 90, 2018052018, , BEST, 0, 172N, 813W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 90, 2018052100, , BEST, 0, 173N, 822W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 90, 2018052106, , BEST, 0, 174N, 831W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 90, 2018052112, , BEST, 0, 176N, 839W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 90, 2018052118, , BEST, 0, 178N, 847W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002, SPAWNINVEST, al722018 to al902018,

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: May 27 2018, 09:49 AM
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Ron in Miami
post May 21 2018, 05:03 PM
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Ron in Miami
post May 21 2018, 06:39 PM
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM
EDT on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Solstice
post May 21 2018, 06:42 PM
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730 PM EDT Update Formation Chances:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Phased Vort
post May 21 2018, 09:29 PM
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12Z FV3 GFS is just a bit wacky.

Sweet and gentle tropical system right on the coast of Louisiana.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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Undertakerson
post May 22 2018, 11:42 AM
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Attached Image
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Undertakerson
post May 23 2018, 05:35 AM
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Weekend ruination system now up to 50% CH in the 5 day outlook


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
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stretchct
post May 23 2018, 06:57 AM
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered near the coast of northeastern Belize
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into
the Florida Straits. Little development is expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to
the Yucatan Peninsula. However, environmental conditions are then
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression could form this weekend over the eastern or
central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the Cayman Islands
during the next few days, and over much of Florida and the
northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information on the
heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post May 23 2018, 07:02 AM
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Special Tropical Weather Outlook...

NM, stretchct beat me to it O_o;;;

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: May 23 2018, 07:03 AM
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 23 2018, 10:20 AM
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Looks to go subtropical/hybrid like with that ULL feeding in drier air aloft thunderstorms abound! Rick Knabb explained it pretty nice last night to the layman what does come from this will likely end up being a low to mid grace named system with characteristics of both tropical and non but the calling card will be the rains and maybe some surge activity into the gulf depending on exact track. Any where from about NOLA east get ready for some hefty rains.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Ron in Miami
post May 23 2018, 07:19 PM
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven
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Ron in Miami
post May 24 2018, 06:46 AM
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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the
southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds,
are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during
the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of
Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In
addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along
the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Phased Vort
post May 24 2018, 10:31 AM
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ECMWF and GFS are starting to have similar ideas on the surface for this system. They are making it more defined and deeper.

We may actually get the first named system and may be more than a nuisance.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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stretchct
post May 24 2018, 12:29 PM
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This mornings Euro. Move the 10+ inch of precip a little west and NOLA may be in trouble.
Attached Image


Similar on GFS. Roll over with the mouse and 15.96 is the max I found.
Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 24 2018, 12:32 PM
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We are up to 90% now in the 5 day. Recon likely tomorrow.


Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart




--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ron in Miami
post May 24 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ May 24 2018, 01:32 PM) *
We are up to 90% now in the 5 day. Recon likely tomorrow.
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018


You are quick, I was F5'ing the TWO and you still beat me lol....I did have to update the header though so that took a min smile.gif
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stretchct
post May 24 2018, 12:42 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ May 24 2018, 01:34 PM) *
You are quick, I was F5'ing the TWO and you still beat me lol....I did have to update the header though so that took a min smile.gif

Luck of the draw!

Here's the max wind gusts from 12z GFS. Euro is similar.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Phased Vort
post May 24 2018, 01:08 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,266
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From: White Plains, NY
Member No.: 12,468





12Z ECMWF running.

Models suggesting a better organized system earlier rather than later, which allows it to go beyond a tropical depression.

NHC seems to be becoming more confident given the models recent runs and satellite observations.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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stretchct
post May 24 2018, 01:44 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Euro kicked the winds up a notch. Prior it was 73mph highest gust. Now its 91.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 24 2018, 01:47 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 6,774
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Euro sustained winds. TS strength.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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