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> Subtropical Storm Alberto, 05/28 11AM EST - 50 MPH - 994 MB - Movement: N @ 14mph
stretchct
post May 25 2018, 11:51 AM
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12z gfs qpf. The blob of brown, 60 miles east of NOLA has amounts over 22"

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--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 02:53 PM
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Attached Image


Attached Image


The Professor, (who does handle TC's pretty well) is being very stubborn with that W FL scrape.

Attached Image


Though I must admit, the SST charts (posted by MJ earlier) seem to not be in support of that notion

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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 03:09 PM
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MaineJay
post May 25 2018, 03:46 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 25 2018, 03:53 PM) *
The Professor, (who does handle TC's pretty well) is being very stubborn with that W FL scrape.

Though I must admit, the SST charts (posted by MJ earlier) seem to not be in support of that notion


UKie ensemble
Attached Image

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 252058
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little
since the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship
observations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has
degraded over the past several hours due a pronounced intrusion of
dry mid-/upper-level air and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit
the structure of a subtropical cyclone. The lowest pressure measured
thus far by the aircraft has been 1006 mb. The initial position is a
little north of the recon position of a pronounced swirl due to the
broad overall nature of the low-level circulation.

The initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt, but this is considered to
be a short-term motion. A gradual turn toward the north should begin
later tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the
Greater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur
by Saturday evening and continue into Sunday as a sharp
mid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of
Mexico combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a
large subtropical ridge to produce deep-layer southerly flow across
Alberto. By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing
mid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone
to turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast
by Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to
collapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis
located along the Gulf coast. Slow but steady recurvature into the
westerlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 h.
The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and the
Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) model.

The broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong
westerly wind shear in excess of 20 kt is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear
sooner than previously forecast, but the ragged nature of the wind
field should prevent any significant intensification until after 48
hours. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is expected
for the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 kt around 60
hours when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and
over SSTs greater than 28 deg C. However, proximity to dry mid-
level air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening,
and the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory, closely following a blend of the HCCA and ICON consensus
models and the FSSE model.

The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm
and storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at
this time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later
advisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the
Gulf Coast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across
the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is
expected to slow down after it moves inland.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have
been issued for portions of these areas.
Residents in the watch
areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast
track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 20.7N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 22.5N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 24.8N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
72H 28/1800Z 29.0N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
96H 29/1800Z 31.7N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 35.2N 87.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Solstice
post May 25 2018, 06:20 PM
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GOES-16 | Mesoscale Sector - 1 minute imagery - 3 hour loop - Band 3 "Veggie"
https://i.imgur.com/JmsFzfK.gif


Edit:
Scrapped due to terrible quality. Need to figure out a fix.

This post has been edited by Solstice: May 25 2018, 06:21 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post May 25 2018, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ May 25 2018, 07:20 PM) *
GOES-16 | Mesoscale Sector - 1 minute imagery - 3 hour loop - Band 3 "Veggie"
https://i.imgur.com/JmsFzfK.gif


Edit:
Scrapped due to terrible quality. Need to figure out a fix.

I was just looping WV images on G16 - but that B3 is awesome - spouting convection as if blowing off an eruption.
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MaineJay
post May 25 2018, 07:21 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ May 25 2018, 07:20 PM) *
GOES-16 | Mesoscale Sector - 1 minute imagery - 3 hour loop - Band 3 "Veggie"
https://i.imgur.com/JmsFzfK.gif


Edit:
Scrapped due to terrible quality. Need to figure out a fix.



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 25 2018, 07:36 PM) *
I was just looping WV images on G16 - but that B3 is awesome - spouting convection as if blowing off an eruption.



Band 3 is my favorite.

Here is 5 minute imagery.

Love the sunset shot, emphasizes those high tops.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Qdeathstar
post May 25 2018, 08:48 PM
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what’s the shear forecast?


--------------------
Jan 6 - 8 SNOW (and possibly a blizzard) Webcam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pq1flRwxdRM
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PlanetMaster
post May 25 2018, 09:31 PM
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Just checking the GFS track for this over the next week and it is crazy. Up the Ohio valley into Canada, then back down through the tri-state, then back down to Georgia coast, then back up the coast into NE. 7 days of rain for us with that track, nice sad.gif

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--------------------
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Phased Vort
post May 25 2018, 10:23 PM
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QUOTE(Qdeathstar @ May 25 2018, 08:48 PM) *
what’s the shear forecast?


It´s supposed to decrease as Alberto reaches the central GOMEX.

Overall atmosphere by that time looks to become conducive for strengthening as suggested by models.


--------------------
Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

[
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MaineJay
post May 26 2018, 05:21 AM
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I'm not entirely comfortable with this being named at this point, just looks so... not tropical.


Band 7

Attached Image

Zoomed in shot of the center


Attached Image


http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post May 26 2018, 05:26 AM
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UKie ensemble. Weak systems seem to have a mind of their own.

Attached Image

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ecmb


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post May 26 2018, 05:37 AM
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Latest microwave imagery shows a tiny spot of deeper convection near the center, but most is scarred to the east.
Attached Image


https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...OD=1degreeticks


Latest ascat passes just missed, but does show a mostly incoherent wind field, with the strongest winds associated with the convection to the east.

Attached Image

Attached Image


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/ascat/uhr.html



--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post May 26 2018, 05:54 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 26 2018, 06:21 AM) *
I'm not entirely comfortable with this being named at this point, just looks so... not tropical.
Band 7

Attached Image

Zoomed in shot of the center


Attached Image


http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

I'll give a pass to the "early" naming. We're into an important travel weekend and that adds a layer of import to getting the word out. Even there though, it's not too much of a "short term" threat (as would be a powerful storm, capable of damage just from the winds) - but prudence seems to the watch word at NHC these days.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 26 2018, 06:17 AM
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 26 2018, 06:03 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 25 2018, 12:08 PM) *
GOES16 band 3 clearly shows a circulation.

Edit: there may be other circulations under the thunderstorms, can tell for sure

[attachment=356251:ezgif.com_optimize.gif]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


Nice shot!


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 26 2018, 06:09 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 25 2018, 08:21 PM) *
Band 3 is my favorite.

Here is 5 minute imagery.

Love the sunset shot, emphasizes those high tops.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

Also another nice one!

QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 26 2018, 06:21 AM) *
I'm not entirely comfortable with this being named at this point, just looks so... not tropical.
Band 7

Attached Image

Zoomed in shot of the center


Attached Image


http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


Yea I have questioned it a lot lately but im not making those calls lol soooo but yea I get that there is a system there and its the holiday weekend but stretching it so that folks feel better that it is a named storm and will take it a little more seriously is cool but look more like a mid latitude cyclone with a vort energy getting ingested into the trough then anything.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Ron in Miami
post May 26 2018, 06:18 AM
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I thought Cindy was bad last year, this is just plain UGLY...


Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

...ALBERTO NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Horseshoe Beach Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Cabo Catoche Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle Louisiana
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Yucatan and Cuba portions of the watch area, in
this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible in the United States portion of that watch area within
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. The storm
is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
faster north-northeastward motion is expected later today, followed
by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Alberto is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel
today and track across the Gulf of Mexico Saturday night through
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches
the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across the
western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides. Rainfall accmumulations of 3 to 7 inches with
maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys
and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin
to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United
States later this weekend and continue into early next week.
Flooding potential will increase across this region early next
week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the United States watch
area beginning on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Horseshoe Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over the Florida Keys and
parts of southwestern Florida this evening and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are affecting portions of the
coast of eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Hazardous surf conditions are likely to develop along
much of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast through the weekend.
For more information, consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Gnutella
post May 26 2018, 06:39 AM
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Tropical Storm Alberto in 1994 stalled out over Georgia and dumped over a foot of rain on much of the state. I don't like the name Alberto.
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MaineJay
post May 26 2018, 07:55 AM
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The 2MB limit on attachments is disappointing, so here's the best I can do.

40 minutes, close up of center. I suggest watching the linked loop for best resolution.

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...oop_speed_ms=80


The center looks like it's trying to slip under some deeper convection, and it's not getting blown off to the NE like it was yesterday.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: May 26 2018, 07:57 AM


--------------------
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