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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
jdrenken
post Jan 21 2018, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 21 2018, 01:48 PM) *
So kinda new to some of these rules. I do remember that recurving typhoon means trough in the eastern US. So I checked out what was going on in the West Pacific. It doesn't usually look like this does it? What are the possible ramifications downstream? Similar pattern goes on in Gulf of Alaska.


Hey stretchct! Per the paper, the correlation is 6-10 days after what happens in East Asia we will see downstream effects in the ECONUS. That being said, you can see in the paper that the EAR (East Asia Rule/Typhoon Rule), scored lower than the BSR. Just like the BSR, I stopped looking at medium range modeled solutions in those regions due to being burned on multiple occasions. The most I go out is 96hr so keep that in mind.


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The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
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stretchct
post Jan 21 2018, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 21 2018, 02:58 PM) *
Hey stretchct! Per the paper, the correlation is 6-10 days after what happens in East Asia we will see downstream effects in the ECONUS. That being said, you can see in the paper that the EAR (East Asia Rule/Typhoon Rule), scored lower than the BSR. Just like the BSR, I stopped looking at medium range modeled solutions in those regions due to being burned on multiple occasions. The most I go out is 96hr so keep that in mind.


"For the EAR, the highest correlations were obtained for the 500 hPa heights at Seoul, South Korea (37.5N 127E), and those at Nashville, TN (BNA)"

So IF I'm reading the paper correctly, the best correlation for the EAR is Seoul to Nashville, so if I'm 850 miles (roughly) northeast of Nashville, I should be correlated with 850 miles northeast of Seoul.

Making that upper low right around my area 60hrs+6-10 days - so 8.5 to 12.5 days out. And the overall vortex pattern should last for a while to the north of Nashville.
Attached File  EAR_question_map.png ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


Does it work with the actual heights or temps, or just the anomalies? Should be fun.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 21 2018, 04:07 PM


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OSNW3
post Jan 22 2018, 12:24 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 21 2018, 03:07 PM) *
"For the EAR, the highest correlations were obtained for the 500 hPa heights at Seoul, South Korea (37.5N 127E), and those at Nashville, TN (BNA)"

So IF I'm reading the paper correctly, the best correlation for the EAR is Seoul to Nashville, so if I'm 850 miles (roughly) northeast of Nashville, I should be correlated with 850 miles northeast of Seoul.

Making that upper low right around my area 60hrs+6-10 days - so 8.5 to 12.5 days out. And the overall vortex pattern should last for a while to the north of Nashville.
Attached File  EAR_question_map.png ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


Does it work with the actual heights or temps, or just the anomalies? Should be fun.


Yes, the point correlation is equidistant and can be used 1:1 if desired. I created a "true size" overlay for the EAR a while back and host forecast maps based on it. You can find them here. Click on "Maps" in the EAR section. I translate the EAR connection with H5 flow, anomaly and/or a rate of change. Enjoy!
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grace
post Jan 22 2018, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 22 2018, 11:24 AM) *
Yes, the point correlation is equidistant and can be used 1:1 if desired. I created a "true size" overlay for the EAR a while back and host forecast maps based on it. You can find them here. Click on "Maps" in the EAR section. I translate the EAR connection with H5 flow, anomaly and/or a rate of change. Enjoy!




I remember on the old website it was easy to access archives & look back at previous EAR maps. Do you still have an easy access archive now?

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 22 2018, 12:30 PM
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OSNW3
post Jan 22 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 22 2018, 11:29 AM) *
I remember on the old website it was easy to access archives & look back at previous EAR maps. Do you still have an easy access archive now?


Yes. http://consonantchaos.com/archive.html

It is not user friendly, just a list of files, but there is a decoder ring.

Example;

EAR Filename: "170903140055.jpg"

"170903xxxxxx" = YYMMDD
"xxxxxx140055" = East Asia Rule

So look for all files with suffix "140055" regarding EAR.

EDIT: And to move quickly between days, just change the date in the url filename.


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Jan 22 2018, 12:36 PM
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jdrenken
post Jan 22 2018, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 21 2018, 03:07 PM) *
"For the EAR, the highest correlations were obtained for the 500 hPa heights at Seoul, South Korea (37.5N 127E), and those at Nashville, TN (BNA)"

So IF I'm reading the paper correctly, the best correlation for the EAR is Seoul to Nashville, so if I'm 850 miles (roughly) northeast of Nashville, I should be correlated with 850 miles northeast of Seoul.

Making that upper low right around my area 60hrs+6-10 days - so 8.5 to 12.5 days out. And the overall vortex pattern should last for a while to the north of Nashville.
Attached File  EAR_question_map.png ( 172.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


Does it work with the actual heights or temps, or just the anomalies? Should be fun.


The paper used anomalies of 500mb heights. Even though some people preach that "you don't live at 500mb", it can be used successfully if applied correctly.

In a literal sense, you are better off knowing that using a 1:1 correlation will only get you in trouble. This premise is not scientifically based and has proven that it's foolish to follow a 1:1 as the earth doesn't work that way. Can it be close? Of course! Again, go into organic forecasting of BSR & EAR in that they are pattern recognition tools and not the "holy grail".


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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grace
post Jan 22 2018, 12:55 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 22 2018, 11:34 AM) *
Yes. http://consonantchaos.com/archive.html

It is not user friendly, just a list of files, but there is a decoder ring.

Example;

EAR Filename: "170903140055.jpg"

"170903xxxxxx" = YYMMDD
"xxxxxx140055" = East Asia Rule

So look for all files with suffix "140055" regarding EAR.

EDIT: And to move quickly between days, just change the date in the url filename.



Thanks
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OSNW3
post Jan 22 2018, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 22 2018, 11:55 AM) *
Thanks


No sweat! My pleasure.
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Removed_Member_idecline_*
post Jan 22 2018, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 22 2018, 12:44 PM) *
The paper used anomalies of 500mb heights. Even though some people preach that "you don't live at 500mb", it can be used successfully if applied correctly.

In a literal sense, you are better off knowing that using a 1:1 correlation will only get you in trouble. This premise is not scientifically based and has proven that it's foolish to follow a 1:1 as the earth doesn't work that way. Can it be close? Of course! Again, go into organic forecasting of BSR & EAR in that they are pattern recognition tools and not the "holy grail".


...idee took a lot of English classes in college...can you say 'hyperbole'... laugh.gif

QUOTE
Joe Bastardi
‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi
1h1 hour ago

Unlike last winter, There will be some of the coldest air in the world ready to strike when MJO goes into the holy grail of cold phases in Feb 8,1,2,3
forecasted on ECMWF to where it was around Dec 17 GLAAM also heading higher Winter in west for now, but east target after thaw


...JB sure can go out on a limb to further his 'rose-colored glasses' (blues if it came to a temperature map)

...idee doesn't understand why 'forecasters' use an 'index' to promote their agenda...reality is not an 'index'...an 'index' is a partial description of a recognizable 'pattern'...yet it is not the 'reality'...

...oh yeah...no reasonable thinking allowed...MJO is not the only 'player' in town folks... dry.gif
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OSNW3
post Jan 25 2018, 05:22 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 22 2018, 08:40 PM) *
...idee took a lot of English classes in college...can you say 'hyperbole'... laugh.gif


Literally.

QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 22 2018, 08:40 PM) *
...idee doesn't understand why 'forecasters' use an 'index' to promote their agenda...reality is not an 'index'...an 'index' is a partial description of a recognizable 'pattern'...yet it is not the 'reality'...


It is going to rain. A little. Maybe.



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OSNW3
post Jan 30 2018, 09:23 AM
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A robust blocking signal per BSR extended GFS.




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Attached File  bsr_blk_hov.jpg ( 637.16K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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jdrenken
post Jan 31 2018, 08:02 PM
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Gif from cranky



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 4 2018, 12:54 AM
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Major system in east Asia around the 8th. Large trough dips down from Siberia into Mongolia then pushes east and deepens. This would correlate roughly to February 15. We're starting to get closer to the warm season, so there may be some severe weather ahead of the system.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 9 2018, 09:23 PM
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Like the way the RRWT looks long range.I took out the CFS forecast and now you can see the enhanced convection getting into the IO into the 2nd week of March.We'll see.This could POSSIBLY be severe weather South,Mid South into the OV towards the end of MarchAttached File  13.png ( 370.05K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 9 2018, 09:25 PM


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Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 9 2018, 11:34 PM
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This also would be the time frame what Eric Webb is talking about after the MJO gets out of the IOAttached File  Eric_Webb_on_Twitter___Using_RMM__the_MJO_has_spent___10_days_in_phase_6_7_w__amplitude_between_3_5_4_sigma__Yikes__This_is_almost_certainly_going_to_trigger_a_massive_downwelling_oceanic_Kelvin_Wave_that_ll_cross_the_EQ_.png ( 187.19K ) Number of downloads: 1


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 8 2018, 12:19 AM
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I know Josh and JD aren't fans of doing this, but utilizing models to forecast the EAR/BSR, we've definitely got some warm and active patterns ahead of us for spring.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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OSNW3
post Mar 8 2018, 07:43 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 7 2018, 11:19 PM) *
I know Josh and JD aren't fans of doing this, but utilizing models to forecast the EAR/BSR, we've definitely got some warm and active patterns ahead of us for spring.


Actually, I am a fan. If the path exists why not utilize it? I say go for it. smile.gif
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jdrenken
post Mar 8 2018, 10:17 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 7 2018, 11:19 PM) *
I know Josh and JD aren't fans of doing this, but utilizing models to forecast the EAR/BSR, we've definitely got some warm and active patterns ahead of us for spring.


It's not that I'm not a fan, but have my limits. Over the years I got burned if I went beyond 120hrs in the BSR & EAR regions. There were times that model agreement was solid and still didn't verify when the time came.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 8 2018, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 8 2018, 07:43 AM) *
Actually, I am a fan. If the path exists why not utilize it? I say go for it. smile.gif



QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 8 2018, 10:17 AM) *
It's not that I'm not a fan, but have my limits. Over the years I got burned if I went beyond 120hrs in the BSR & EAR regions. There were times that model agreement was solid and still didn't verify when the time came.

Yeah, it's no different from using the models to predict a pattern in the US. You know it can change, but if there's decent consistency and agreement, why not. I'm saying that in a general sense, not saying the models have been consistent/in agreement with the pattern in east Asia and north Pacific.

The SOI has been positive, albeit of various magnitudes, for 2 weeks now though. Implies a Nina-esque pattern for late March/early April per the SOI rule. The varying magnitudes could be interpreted as an active pattern.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 8 2018, 02:37 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Mar 12 2018, 07:51 AM
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Attached File  ECMWF_Model___Tropical_Tidbits__1_.png ( 444.29K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  RRWT___Consonant_Chaos.png ( 107.54K ) Number of downloads: 2


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