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> 2017-2018 La Niņa watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 8 2018, 01:18 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 7 2018, 06:00 PM) *
Interesting how we've recognized multiple things that are thought to be precursors to a Nino, yet no models really show it. Will be a good test for model skill vs. what we think are precursing patterns.

I don't think anyone was posting images of the subsurface in early 2015, which is unfortunate. Looking at the subsurface, the first thing I think of is this might be a west-based or east-based Nino. It's easy to say this clearly looks like a west-based Nino but like you said we don't know how it'll evolve over the warm season.

The CPC has an archive of Climate Diagnostics Bulletins dating back to Feb 1999: Archive

Pulled the image below from the August 2015 bulletin ...

Based on recent strong El Nino events (1965, 1972, 1982, 1997) only the 1965 event was followed by a EN event three years later. 1975 had a strong Nina, 1985 had a neutral negative, and 2000 had a weak Nina. Thus, Nina conditions are more likely than Nino conditions, but neutral is a safe bet for the time being. Either way, no matter how strong the precursor signals are, another strong Nino event would be unprecedented if it occurred prior to 2022.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Feb 8 2018, 01:20 PM
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Attached File  Aug_2015_SSTA_depth.gif ( 27.63K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2018, 07:29 PM
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Anthony Masiello had an interesting Twitter thread today. Basically saying this could be the end of the warm Pacific era of 2013-current, citing the major SSW, low solar, more active MJO, and descending -QBO.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/961582574266089473



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 8 2018, 07:31 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 9 2018, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 8 2018, 07:29 PM) *
Anthony Masiello had an interesting Twitter thread today. Basically saying this could be the end of the warm Pacific era of 2013-current, citing the major SSW, low solar, more active MJO, and descending -QBO.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/961582574266089473

If he's correct, put another tally next to the idea that the PDO is no longer a 30 year oscillation.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2018, 11:22 PM
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Not sure when the last time was when the global SSTs were this cool. Certainly not in the past 3 years. I'd imagine a number of factors are going into this, including low solar and the back to back Nina winters.

The effects of low solar may not be at its greatest yet because water takes longer to cool. Should continue to see effects from that for years to come.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 15 2018, 11:24 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2018, 01:18 PM
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The Nina strengthens yet again. Nino 3.4 is back to moderate Nina territory. We've moved from east-based Nina to central-based. I saw a lot of talk on Twitter about a significant weakening happening due to the very robust MJO and supposed WWBs... must not be translating to the surface or maybe it's yet to come.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post Feb 19 2018, 01:23 PM
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Cliche...my phone won't let me reply, so will touch base on your latest. I find it ironic how some blogs are using neutral MJO phase 1 composites when we clearly are not in a neutral phase.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 19 2018, 01:43 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 19 2018, 03:18 PM) *
The Nina strengthens yet again. Nino 3.4 is back to moderate Nina territory. We've moved from east-based Nina to central-based. I saw a lot of talk on Twitter about a significant weakening happening due to the very robust MJO and supposed WWBs... must not be translating to the surface or maybe it's yet to come.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3
24JAN2018     24.0-0.9     24.7-1.1     25.9-0.7     27.8-0.4
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4


Yet to come... that warm pool near the dateline is something that needs to be watched. To be quite honest i dont think strengthening is the right call here yes it shows that over the past month temps have "cooled" or "surfaced" much more easily then in the past but this could be a product of the MJO progression here. Looks as though when we get MJO progression to about 6/7 we tend to cool the nino regions of 3/3.4/4 and warm 1+2 now this may just be coincidence but something I happened to just see from the numbers.

This is by far the strongest MJO impulse this winter last one being back in mid october difference between this one and that wave simply the last wave zipped by where as this seems to be almost stuck for almost 3 weeks! Thought that was pretty cool to see during the first wave also the amplitude was not there and the downwelling portion was just getting setup.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 26 2018, 09:16 PM
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The Nina is rapidly weakening in the east, holding on in the center. This should help flip the TNI.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 27 2018, 05:25 PM
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This Nina has turned into basically an exaggerated state of the 2016-17 Nina.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 5 2018, 01:27 PM
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Nina has weakened

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2


GFS and CFS are picking up on enhanced trades for the next few weeks.



DJF ONI is -0.9. So now we have -0.7 for SON, -0.9 for OND, -1.0 for NDJ, and -0.9 for DJF. One month away from an official Nina which I'm certain we'll meet.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 5 2018, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 5 2018, 01:27 PM) *
Nina has weakened

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
31JAN2018     24.4-0.9     24.8-1.2     25.8-0.9     27.7-0.5
07FEB2018     24.9-0.7     24.9-1.3     25.8-0.9     27.8-0.3
14FEB2018     25.5-0.6     25.3-1.1     25.8-1.0     27.7-0.4
21FEB2018     26.2 0.0     25.7-0.9     25.8-1.1     27.9-0.2
28FEB2018     26.5 0.2     26.1-0.6     26.1-0.8     27.9-0.2


GFS and CFS are picking up on enhanced trades for the next few weeks.

DJF ONI is -0.9. So now we have -0.7 for SON, -0.9 for OND, -1.0 for NDJ, and -0.9 for DJF. One month away from an official Nina which I'm certain we'll meet.

Agreed, moderate Nina might be a stretch, but no doubt stronger than last winter. Now for next winter, Nina part three? My guess is for negative neutral conditions i.e. La Nada, but we'll see.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 5 2018, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 5 2018, 04:11 PM) *
Agreed, moderate Nina might be a stretch, but no doubt stronger than last winter. Now for next winter, Nina part three? My guess is for negative neutral conditions i.e. La Nada, but we'll see.

For next winter, I wouldn't rule anything out honestly.. except for maybe a high-end Nino.

This Nina has been very reluctant to die out.We'll have to wait and see, but the enhanced trades might slow the warming down again.

CFS is showing this Nina will strength in the summer back into solid Nina territory.


Then again... this time last year, CFS was showing a relatively long-lived Nino starting in the summer. laugh.gif So I guess it just goes back to what I said first... I wouldn't rule anything out.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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idecline
post Mar 6 2018, 06:26 PM
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..end of the 'ride'...like a rollercoaster...what is next? ...another hill or another valley?
Attached File  frame048.png ( 30.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  frame060.png ( 31.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the weekly update (Mar. 5, 2018) from CPC shows a positive upper ocean heat anomaly for 1st time in 6 months... wink.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...html#discussion ...

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 6 2018, 06:27 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2018, 02:34 PM
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Something seems... out of place... at the end of this loop. blink.gif





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 14 2018, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 14 2018, 04:34 PM) *
Something seems... out of place... at the end of this loop. blink.gif





Data error cause that is quite the reversal within 5 days in that depth and that region. That is quite the warmth building up under the surface waters wonder if we see it slowly be released, with no real WWB to show up anytime soon. With MJO crashing hard and meandering around COD for the past month we got a slowed pattern it seems I wouldnt be surprised if we sit for a little with this barely there nina more neutral status.

What no weeklies to show we are bouncing around:


07FEB2018 24.9-0.7 24.9-1.3 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.3
14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4
21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2
28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2
07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Mar 14 2018, 03:09 PM


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Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2018, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 14 2018, 03:09 PM) *
Data error cause that is quite the reversal within 5 days in that depth and that region. That is quite the warmth building up under the surface waters wonder if we see it slowly be released, with no real WWB to show up anytime soon. With MJO crashing hard and meandering around COD for the past month we got a slowed pattern it seems I wouldnt be surprised if we sit for a little with this barely there nina more neutral status.

What no weeklies to show we are bouncing around:


07FEB2018 24.9-0.7 24.9-1.3 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.3
14FEB2018 25.5-0.6 25.3-1.1 25.8-1.0 27.7-0.4
21FEB2018 26.2 0.0 25.7-0.9 25.8-1.1 27.9-0.2
28FEB2018 26.5 0.2 26.1-0.6 26.1-0.8 27.9-0.2
07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1

CFS shows that we won't even leave Nina status until next spring. Latest JAMSTEC says we'll be out of it in either April or May. Thankfully this means we'll know which model is right in 1-2 months.




However... even though JAMSTEC is showing barely cool-neutral conditions (-0.1 to -0.2), the basin looks much more like a cool-neutral than warm neutral.


I'm definitely not favoring JAMSTEC for handling this Nina properly. It's been abysmal.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 14 2018, 03:22 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2018, 06:30 PM
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Quite the jump in SOI in the past day... blink.gif




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post Mar 18 2018, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 17 2018, 06:30 PM) *
Quite the jump in SOI in the past day... blink.gif




What's funny is a company in Indiana, TDSWX, is acting like they know the ramifications.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 23 2018, 03:09 PM
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Well forecasted MJO, as Im sure others have seen me post about in other threads, is interesting considering we now progress through 8/1/2 a lot more so than we have during Nina peak where we just seemed to stall and just flat out be nothing then reload 2/3. Pretty good agreement overall with the other models of bringing the wave around 6/7 and then through at least 7/8 and maybe 1 in low amplitude. Looks like atmospheric state wants to try and erode some of the eastern area cooling still hanging around. Sub surface throwing in some warming around 3 eastern 3.4 region so should possibly see some rebounding as we move toward April and maybe by mid april be neutral state across all regions and maybe some small scale warming into may around the 3/3.4 region, positive neutral??

Still have a decent positive SOI push too so got a lot of signals still conflicting.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 26 2018, 03:01 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 23 2018, 04:09 PM) *
Well forecasted MJO, as Im sure others have seen me post about in other threads, is interesting considering we now progress through 8/1/2 a lot more so than we have during Nina peak where we just seemed to stall and just flat out be nothing then reload 2/3. Pretty good agreement overall with the other models of bringing the wave around 6/7 and then through at least 7/8 and maybe 1 in low amplitude. Looks like atmospheric state wants to try and erode some of the eastern area cooling still hanging around. Sub surface throwing in some warming around 3 eastern 3.4 region so should possibly see some rebounding as we move toward April and maybe by mid april be neutral state across all regions and maybe some small scale warming into may around the 3/3.4 region, positive neutral??

Still have a decent positive SOI push too so got a lot of signals still conflicting.

Just looking at SSTA's I don't see any signs of the La Nina fading or going away anytime soon. To this end, an official Nina hasn't yet been confirmed, but based on weekly values JFM's ONI should be very close to the DJF value. All in all seems like a moderate 17-18 Nina is a lock.

Looking at the sub-surface anomalies warm water is definitely surging east, but the largest anomalies at around 150m below the surface. Vertical motions in the ocean are slow so this could easily take an entire year to reach the surface. Furthermore, based on the past couple seasons (weak Nino in 14-15, super Nino in 15-16, weak Nina in 16-17, mod Nina in 17-18) ... I'm thinking a cool-neutral in late 2018 transitioning to a warm-neutral in early 2019 and a moderate/strong Nino for the 2019-20 winter.


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