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> Jan. 6-7 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS., Major Ice Storm...Post Storm Reports & OBS.
MC-OEM
post Jan 6 2009, 03:18 AM
Post #261




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QUOTE(gloryboy1417 @ Jan 6 2009, 04:11 AM) *
Matt and I are trying to figure out in Mt Holly's area...they say a WSW in their updated discussion but don't show it on the map.


I thought I was the only one who ran into this problem.

T


--------------------
Office of Emergency Management
and Homeland Security
Montgomery County, MD
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jan 6 2009, 03:20 AM
Post #262







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QUOTE(MC-OEM @ Jan 6 2009, 04:18 AM) *
I thought I was the only one who ran into this problem.

T

Nope! I am trying to keep from passing out in order to read it ...but they seem to be lagging ...
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 6 2009, 03:20 AM
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --RIDGE OVER REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MODEL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM.

ANOTHER VERY COMPLEX STORM WITH PHASING OF STREAMS. SIMILAR TO
STORMS FROM LAST WINTER WHERE DO NOT QUITE REACH SNOW CRITERIA OR
ICE CRITERIA FOR A WARNING BUT HAVE A HIGH IMPACT STORM. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM SOUTHWEST WITH OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING REGION THIS EVENING AS ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THROUGH
THE EVENING. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO ALOFT OVER COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE SETTING THE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. OVERNIGHT THE MIX
AND CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. BIG
CONCERN IS THAT THE THERE IS SUB TROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE
INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. HAVE MOISTURE
STREAMING UP FROM THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA. COULD MEAN MORE FREEZING
RAIN. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND WILL MAINTAIN WATCH ACROSS REST OF FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. APPROACH WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...mp;highlight=on


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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MC-OEM
post Jan 6 2009, 03:26 AM
Post #264




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OPM has decided to keep the Federal force on schedule. Now watch them jack up the transportation system with an unannounced release at 2PM like the year before last.

T


--------------------
Office of Emergency Management
and Homeland Security
Montgomery County, MD
http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/mcgtmpl....urity/index.asp

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LoganTyler
post Jan 6 2009, 03:31 AM
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Okay, Mike and I have mulled over this some with the latest guidance that has come in, and we have decided to forgo any changes. We are fairly confident about our 5-10" range verfying. One thing I overlooked, was the fact that the snowfall amounts will be rather elongated in duration, therefore the Warning Criteria for snowfall will be higher than the normal 7"/12 hours, and may instead fall in the 9"/24 hours criteria range, hence the reason why advisories where preferred in some areas vs. warnings. The map covers a time frame from this morning thru Thursday 12PM when the Coastal Low is still impacting Maine, so when all is said and done by this timeframe, we think the solution will verify close to what is shown.

Bottomline... this could be a drawn out event, so even though advisories are being issued, still think these amounts will verify across northern NY/New England over an 18 hour period. Area of most concern for potential bust is the southern/central Catskills and lower Hudson River Valley. Amounts here look like could be a tad lower than the 5-8" forecasted, but rather than adjust to accumulation ranges, will let it go for now as amounts should still be close to the 5" floor we have set.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by LoganTyler: Jan 6 2009, 03:35 AM


--------------------
- Logan -

A.S. in Business Administration-- Broome Comm. College '08
B.S. in Accounting-- Binghamton University '10
M.B.A. in Public Accounting-- SUNY Oswego '12
M.S. in Forensic Accounting-- SUNY Brockport '13
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 6 2009, 03:39 AM
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QUOTE(LoganTyler @ Jan 6 2009, 04:31 AM) *
Okay, Mike and I have mulled over this some with the latest guidance that has come in, and we have decided to forgo any changes. We are fairly confident about our 5-10" range verfying. One thing I overlooked, was the fact that the snowfall amounts will be rather elongated in duration, therefore the Warning Criteria for snowfall will be higher than the normal 7"/12 hours, and may instead fall in the 9"/24 hours criteria range, hence the reason why advisories where preferred in some areas vs. warnings. The map covers a time frame from this morning thru Thursday 12PM when the Coastal Low is still impacting Maine, so when all is said and done by this timeframe, we think the solution will verify close to what is shown.

Bottomline... this could be a drawn out event, so even though advisories are being issued, still think these amounts will verify across northern NY/New England over an 18 hour period. Area of most concern for potential bust is the southern/central Catskills and lower Hudson River Valley. Amounts here look like could be a tad lower than the 5-8" forecasted, but rather than adjust to accumulation ranges, will let it go for now as amounts should still be close to the 5" floor we have set.


Attached Image

Looks good to me, but do u think albany is gonna hit that. They will change to a mix before us and they wont have the lake to help them out at all Plus i dont knw if the backlash will hit them like it will over here.


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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gloryboy1417
post Jan 6 2009, 03:41 AM
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Mt Holly has two different warning depending on where you are. With some differences in ice accumulations


QUOTE
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

NJZ009-010-PAZ060-067>069-062115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.090106T1700Z-090107T1300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR BERKS...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES OF
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM
EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONSOLIDATE BY THIS
EVENING. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET FALLING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THAT COULD LAST PAST THE RUSH HOUR ON WEDNESDAY.

WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WHICH MAY RESULT IN ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS WOULD ACCUMULATE
ON WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD COME DOWN FROM THE WEIGHT AND
THERE LIKELY WILL BE POWER OUTAGES.

AFTER A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND CHANGE THE MIXTURE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY NOON TIME.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON AREA
ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. PLEASE USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

$$


Source


QUOTE
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-062115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.090106T2100Z-090107T1500Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EAS
ON
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR LEHIGH...NORTHAMPTON...CARBON AND MONROE
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WARREN...MORRIS AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONSOLIDATE BY THIS
EVENING. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET FALLING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THAT COULD LAST PAST THE RUSH HOUR ON WEDNESDAY.

WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WHICH MAY RESULT IN UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. THIS WOULD
ACCUMULATE ON WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD COME DOWN FROM THE
HEAVY WEIGHT AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE POWER OUTAGES.

AFTER A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND CHANGE THE MIXTURE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON
AREA ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET...AND IN
THIS CASE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ICE ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE USE
EXTREME CAUTION.


Source




This post has been edited by gloryboy1417: Jan 6 2009, 03:49 AM


--------------------
Kevin
Eastern Berks Fire Department
Bally Community Ambulance


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MC-OEM
post Jan 6 2009, 03:42 AM
Post #268




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Looks like they updated the map. I find myself in the odd situation of now being surrounded with warnings N-E-W. The odd ball once again. smile.gif

T

This post has been edited by MC-OEM: Jan 6 2009, 03:42 AM


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Office of Emergency Management
and Homeland Security
Montgomery County, MD
http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/mcgtmpl....urity/index.asp

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Big Dave
post Jan 6 2009, 03:57 AM
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I am sorry I did not see any of thr latiest computer models is there no longer a second storm that will form to help keep the cold air in on wednesday? am I still in the greatest risk for heavy ice or will I change to rain earlier then expected? thank you.
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LoganTyler
post Jan 6 2009, 03:59 AM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 6 2009, 04:39 AM) *
Looks good to me, but do u think albany is gonna hit that. They will change to a mix before us and they wont have the lake to help them out at all Plus i dont knw if the backlash will hit them like it will over here.

Welp, here's the deal. I'll let you in on our thought process. Orginally we thought 5-8" there in the Capital District. Granted they sit on the Hudson River Valley, which generally keeps the heaviest snows to the west/north/east in the more mountainous terrain. One thing we have to remember, is this map covers a very large geographic area, so our Accumulation ranges have to accomodate a wide variety of climatology. The reason for the 10" cap is more intended for the Adirondacks and northern New England where 6-10" is a better bet. So we have places like Albany and Caribou covered under 1 range of 5-10".

So with all that in mind, we decided not to overhaul anything by adjusting the accumulation ranges, which likely would have meant inserting a 4th accumulation range on the map. So to avoid confusion we will leave it as is, and keep the 5-8" in play for Albany. We'll take another look later this morning, but we feel that if we are underdone, it won't be by much with average amounts expected to be rite around 5 or 6".

This post has been edited by LoganTyler: Jan 6 2009, 04:05 AM


--------------------
- Logan -

A.S. in Business Administration-- Broome Comm. College '08
B.S. in Accounting-- Binghamton University '10
M.B.A. in Public Accounting-- SUNY Oswego '12
M.S. in Forensic Accounting-- SUNY Brockport '13
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 6 2009, 04:02 AM
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QUOTE(Big Dave @ Jan 6 2009, 04:57 AM) *
I am sorry I did not see any of thr latiest computer models is there no longer a second storm that will form to help keep the cold air in on wednesday? am I still in the greatest risk for heavy ice or will I change to rain earlier then expected? thank you.

You are under a ice storm warning, with a chance of atleast 1/4 inch of ice and good amount of sleet..


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 6 2009, 04:08 AM
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Tonight: Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 22. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow and sleet before noon, then freezing rain and sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow and sleet after 3pm. High near 29. East wind between 9 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 24. East wind 5 to 11 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...Field2=-74.9928


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Big Dave
post Jan 6 2009, 04:08 AM
Post #273




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Member No.: 13,298





thank you mike Ishould see frozen precip. by noon. dew point temp. is still 12
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Ann Otawo
post Jan 6 2009, 04:09 AM
Post #274




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Gray NWS now saying mostly a snow event for their CWA. smile.gif

Snow should begin over southern New Hampshire by
about 12z...then develop steadily northward...eventually covering
the entire County Warning Area by 18z. Models have continued a cold trend with
this system. Even the GFS is now producing mostly snow at nearly
all locations. Only exception is over coastal New Hampshire where
snow should change over to rain in the early afternoon hours.
Further north along the Maine coast...precipitation should be
primarily snow. Late in the afternoon the snow may mix with ice
pellets and freezing rain. The foothills and mountains should see
all snow. Snow amounts for this system are somewhat on the bubble
for a warning. Have opted to issue the watch and let the day shift
take one more look at new model data before pulling the trigger on
advisories and warnings.


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Big Dave
post Jan 6 2009, 04:14 AM
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Mike why are you still only under a watch with that forecast that is winter storm warning matieral too me?
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LoganTyler
post Jan 6 2009, 04:14 AM
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Albany is re-affirming our thoughts by upgrading to a WSW for up to 4-8" in the higher terrain of Greene/Columbia counties in NY, and Berkshire county in western MA. 2-4" elsewhere into Litchfield county CT, and lower Hudson River Valley south of Albany.


--------------------
- Logan -

A.S. in Business Administration-- Broome Comm. College '08
B.S. in Accounting-- Binghamton University '10
M.B.A. in Public Accounting-- SUNY Oswego '12
M.S. in Forensic Accounting-- SUNY Brockport '13
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finatic jason
post Jan 6 2009, 04:17 AM
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Certainly hasn't got as cold as I thought here north of Baltimore. We still at 37. That's down 3 degree's from 40 at 10 last night. Aside from some sleet rain mix I am pretty sure we won't see any frozen precip in the DC /Balto metro area.

This post has been edited by finatic jason: Jan 6 2009, 04:19 AM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 6 2009, 04:17 AM
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QUOTE(Big Dave @ Jan 6 2009, 05:14 AM) *
Mike why are you still only under a watch with that forecast that is winter storm warning matieral too me?

I dunt knw, but binghamton has an advisory for utica yet the NWS calls for the same forecast as mine.


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 6 2009, 04:20 AM
Post #279




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 15,324
Joined: 17-December 08
From: CNJ
Member No.: 16,547





QUOTE(LoganTyler @ Jan 6 2009, 05:14 AM) *
Albany is re-affirming our thoughts by upgrading to a WSW for up to 4-8" in the higher terrain of Greene/Columbia counties in NY, and Berkshire county in western MA. 2-4" elsewhere into Litchfield county CT, and lower Hudson River Valley south of Albany.

It dunt make sense that the NWS will issue WSW for 4-8 inches in those counties and not for onieda county..


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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AnthonyS
post Jan 6 2009, 04:20 AM
Post #280




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From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 1,182





My first thought after waking and looking at significant dew point depressions north of the mason dixon line is that there is going to be some kind of forecasting problems today, most likely in the form of virga and possibly, later on, colder than anticipated surface temperatures. Pick your poison.

Anthony

This post has been edited by AnthonyS: Jan 6 2009, 04:21 AM


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