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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
RobB
post Jan 17 2018, 01:01 PM
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1/17 12Z NAEFS:

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Attached File  naefs.png ( 104.42K ) Number of downloads: 4
 
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psu1313
post Jan 17 2018, 01:10 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 17 2018, 01:15 AM) *
Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.

The same trough that brought Siberia insanely cold temps (-75 degrees; heard may have almost broke a thermometer) will move southeast and give east Asia some leftovers just as North America thaws.

Geopotential heights over Korea, Japan, China, and Mongolia suggest this may not be one of those west ridge/east trough setups. I have a hunch that this trough will set up over the central US, leaving progressively higher heights to the north and east... i.e., the greatest anomalies may be over the central US.

So, Arctic blast to begin February.



To update...-88.6 degrees Fahrenheit. https://www.yahoo.com/news/big-freeze-russi...-131009936.html

OUCH!
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RobB
post Jan 17 2018, 04:15 PM
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1/17 12Z Euro EPS daily 850 mb and 2 meter temp anomaly loop:

Attached File(s)
Attached File  850mbtempanomaly.gif ( 1.92MB ) Number of downloads: 5
Attached File  2meteranomaly.gif ( 1.95MB ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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ValpoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 08:44 PM
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Looks like we're done with accumulating snow in Chicago through the end of the month. Still well below normal.
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idecline
post Jan 17 2018, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 08:44 PM) *
Looks like we're done with accumulating snow in Chicago through the end of the month. Still well below normal.


...if you see this large storm entering the CONUS via West Coast...one might get an idea that a large snow event could be on the doorstep for upper Midwest...before the end of the month...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 685.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...my amateur eyes tell me Chicago could receive snows as soon as Monday/Tuesday timeframe...
with a second potentially heavier dose of snow late next week...
...edit from WPC Extended Forecast...

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST WED JAN 17 2018

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 20 2018 - 12Z WED JAN 24 2018

...OVERVIEW...

MULTI-DAY MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ESTABLISHMENT OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE PREVAILING LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
48, THOUGH WITH SOME MODEST DIFFERENCES AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
FOR THE PRECISE LOCATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH'S AXIS. WITHIN THIS
PATTERN THERE SHOULD BE TWO PROMINENT PACIFIC SYSTEMS THAT BRING
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WEST COAST AND
SOME MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND, WHILE A LEADING UPPER TROUGH
REACHING THE WEST AS OF EARLY SAT WILL GENERATE A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT PLAINS THROUGH GREAT LAKES STORM FROM SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

QUOTE
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

SEPARATE STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48. LEADING STORM EMERGING
FROM THE WEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A BAND OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
THAT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MEANWHILE IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
EASTERN TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY, AS DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE EAST COAST,
ATLANTIC INFLOW COULD ENHANCE TOTALS OVER NEW ENGLAND AS WELL.
THE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
STRONG WINDS AS WELL DEPENDING ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE ROCKIES.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE MOST EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS TO BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE INITIAL WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. STORM
AND COLD FRONT, WITH THE WARMTH PROGRESSING FROM THE PLAINS SAT TO
THE EASTERN STATES IN LESS EXTREME FASHION BY MON-TUE. SOME MIN
TEMPS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 20-30F ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON WHILE HIGHS
MAY REACH 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ANTICIPATE
HIGHS OF 5-15F BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
WEST DURING THE WEEKEND.

RAUSCH


Attached File  95ep48iwbg_fill.gif ( 34.29K ) Number of downloads: 1


rolleyes.gif ...looks like snow to me...and lots of it...all depending on trajectories and ratios... dry.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 17 2018, 10:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 17 2018, 01:15 AM) *
Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.

The same trough that brought Siberia insanely cold temps (-75 degrees; heard may have almost broke a thermometer) will move southeast and give east Asia some leftovers just as North America thaws.

Geopotential heights over Korea, Japan, China, and Mongolia suggest this may not be one of those west ridge/east trough setups. I have a hunch that this trough will set up over the central US, leaving progressively higher heights to the north and east... i.e., the greatest anomalies may be over the central US.

So, Arctic blast to begin February.


Bring it on my friend!
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 17 2018, 10:58 PM) *
...if you see this large storm entering the CONUS via West Coast...one might get an idea that a large snow event could be on the doorstep for upper Midwest...before the end of the month...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 685.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...my amateur eyes tell me Chicago could receive snows as soon as Monday/Tuesday timeframe...
with a second potentially heavier dose of snow late next week...
...edit from WPC Extended Forecast...
Attached File  95ep48iwbg_fill.gif ( 34.29K ) Number of downloads: 1


rolleyes.gif ...looks like snow to me...and lots of it...all depending on trajectories and ratios... dry.gif


Unfortunately looks like a nope for chi-town. You see the concave look to precip that is the jet punching through the center and thus just left is the LP which puts chi-town in the warmth as for the potential after that is up in the air. You need a low rocketing into MI and OH area to get the snows into that area.


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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


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bradjl2009
post Jan 17 2018, 10:17 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 08:44 PM) *
Looks like we're done with accumulating snow in Chicago through the end of the month. Still well below normal.

Yeah, at the moment it's looking quite ugly for anyone to see much of anything outside of Wisconsin and Minnesota over the next ten days. Fortunately for me, I'm nearly 10 inches above normal at the moment so as long as this flips toward the start of February, I should be fine for the season.
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cary67
post Jan 17 2018, 11:39 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 07:44 PM) *
Looks like we're done with accumulating snow in Chicago through the end of the month. Still well below normal.

Yeah I think we should be up to 21" normally at ORD by the end of January so will be under that by 50% probably. Very likely we end up below normal for the winter. On American someone posted statistics on winters that had this slow of a start and the vast majority ended below to well below normal. Would not be surprised if we do get a return to arctic air that the trough sets up in the same placement east of our area that it was before. Patterns like to repeat themselves. Be prepared for DTX to cash in on clippers that blow up on the EC. Deep south and OV can do well also. They are closer to normals snowfall wise
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cary67
post Jan 17 2018, 11:44 PM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Jan 17 2018, 07:58 PM) *
...if you see this large storm entering the CONUS via West Coast...one might get an idea that a large snow event could be on the doorstep for upper Midwest...before the end of the month...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 685.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...my amateur eyes tell me Chicago could receive snows as soon as Monday/Tuesday timeframe...
with a second potentially heavier dose of snow late next week...
...edit from WPC Extended Forecast...
Attached File  95ep48iwbg_fill.gif ( 34.29K ) Number of downloads: 1


rolleyes.gif ...looks like snow to me...and lots of it...all depending on trajectories and ratios... dry.gif

Only if they relocate Chicago up by Duluth. laugh.gif
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grace
post Jan 18 2018, 12:57 AM
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BSR would indicate wintry chances for OV JAN 25-31. We'll see.... smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 18 2018, 03:07 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 17 2018, 10:40 AM) *
Now we are talking glad you see it was starting to get worried. Im curious what happens with this strat might just be able to break it down at the end of the month. Then that will bring about possibly a rather chilly end of February into March.

I usually look at organic forecasting when there's nothing that interests me with our weather, hoping for something interesting to talk about. This is one of those times. Not looking forward to the cold... again... but at least it's something. Hopefully some snow will be associated with it.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 18 2018, 03:10 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Undertakerson
post Jan 18 2018, 04:45 AM
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Attached File  aclimatewatch.PNG ( 523.61K ) Number of downloads: 11


Attached File  WW2.PNG ( 554.41K ) Number of downloads: 5



(it's a video you can watch if you click link)

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/climatewatch.html

That look would tend to shut off the GOM - BUT only as an overall look, the tap can get going during intervals.

And the cold, not so bold, won't take hold message is also "overall" - they are not saying it won't be cold, more so that the uber deep cold is far less likely. That puts MidAtl in battleground, and if you like winter storms, that is where you want to be for the action.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 18 2018, 04:49 AM
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Storms R us
post Jan 18 2018, 06:23 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 18 2018, 04:45 AM) *
Attached File  aclimatewatch.PNG ( 523.61K ) Number of downloads: 11


Attached File  WW2.PNG ( 554.41K ) Number of downloads: 5

(it's a video you can watch if you click link)

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/climatewatch.html

That look would tend to shut off the GOM - BUT only as an overall look, the tap can get going during intervals.

And the cold, not so bold, won't take hold message is also "overall" - they are not saying it won't be cold, more so that the uber deep cold is far less likely. That puts MidAtl in battleground, and if you like winter storms, that is where you want to be for the action.


Agree about the battle grounds for the mid Atlantic and I would like to ask you that what is being stated by the weather person and irt the battle grounds part of the start of a transmission period?
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RobB
post Jan 18 2018, 07:43 AM
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1/18 0Z NAEFS:

Attached File(s)
Attached File  naefs.png ( 101.83K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 18 2018, 07:44 AM
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1/18 0Z Euro EPS daily 850 mb and 2 meter temp anomaly loops:

Attached File(s)
Attached File  850tempanomalies.gif ( 1.93MB ) Number of downloads: 5
Attached File  2metertempanomalies.gif ( 2MB ) Number of downloads: 7
 
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 18 2018, 08:29 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 18 2018, 07:43 AM) *
1/18 0Z NAEFS:



QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 18 2018, 07:44 AM) *
1/18 0Z Euro EPS daily 850 mb and 2 meter temp anomaly loops:

YIKES blink.gif that turned quickly
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Bjerknes
post Jan 18 2018, 08:45 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 18 2018, 05:45 AM) *
Attached File  aclimatewatch.PNG ( 523.61K ) Number of downloads: 11


Attached File  WW2.PNG ( 554.41K ) Number of downloads: 5

(it's a video you can watch if you click link)

http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/climatewatch.html

That look would tend to shut off the GOM - BUT only as an overall look, the tap can get going during intervals.

And the cold, not so bold, won't take hold message is also "overall" - they are not saying it won't be cold, more so that the uber deep cold is far less likely. That puts MidAtl in battleground, and if you like winter storms, that is where you want to be for the action.


Yes indeed, the jet stream setup will hopefully be more favorable once we hit February. Weather World was a little off with their December - January forecast; the trough axis should have been further East. But usually the same pattern doesn't setup the entire winter. I just worry we'll not have enough digging and moisture to get what we want along I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic, so we'll see. Thus far we've had less than an inch overall this winter.

This post has been edited by Bjerknes: Jan 18 2018, 08:46 AM
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grace
post Jan 18 2018, 09:01 AM
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QUOTE(Bjerknes @ Jan 18 2018, 07:45 AM) *
Yes indeed, the jet stream setup will hopefully be more favorable once we hit February. Weather World was a little off with their December - January forecast; the trough axis should have been further East. But usually the same pattern doesn't setup the entire winter. I just worry we'll not have enough digging and moisture to get what we want along I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic, so we'll see. Thus far we've had less than an inch overall this winter.



RRWT suggests more of the same in FEB & right now more of the same in the Spring.

RRWT has slaughtered the models & forecasters all winter. BSR has been helpful also when it's in range & EAR.

This last cold & 2 wintervstorm came during a period model guidance suggested would be a blowtorch. Don't drink the cool aid
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grace
post Jan 18 2018, 09:25 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jan 18 2018, 08:01 AM) *
RRWT suggests more of the same in FEB & right now more of the same in the Spring.

RRWT has slaughtered the models & forecasters all winter. BSR has been helpful also when it's in range & EAR.

This last cold & 2 wintervstorm came during a period model guidance suggested would be a blowtorch. Don't drink the cool aid



Here's what the EPS showed for the JAN 13-18 period:




Here's what has actually occurred minus today:





Here's what RRWT was showing:





Here was BSR for "around" JAN 16-19




BSR..date says JAN 18 but remember BSR has a 17-21 day verification so dates are not always exact. Point is the 500mb map from yesterday in the U.S. is absolutely a perfect match.





What has been occurring is the models see what will be a brief warm-up or rise in heights & they want to make it a prolonged blowtorch looking pattern but as it draws near they catch on to another +PNA spike & we end up with a 1-2 days warmth followed by cold. BSR/RRWT have not been perfect but they've provided me with red flags when models have shown blowtorch in the LR.

This post has been edited by grace: Jan 18 2018, 09:28 AM
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